by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
Where to watch: BSSUN, SPECSN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: NL
FanDuel: Heat -7; Heat -285, Lakers +240; O/U 226
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Heat -7; Heat -303, Lakers +240
Season record
Lakers: 14-20
Heat: 17-17
Well, if you’ve never seen a balanced NBA season to this point, you’re in for some craziness along the way. A lot of new faces in new places already making an impact, and our champion handicappers are already starting to take notice. The last 30 days have seen our champion handicappers cashing in a great deal. Look at Brian Bitler going 80-55-0 in the last 30 days, a run of $18,800 net profit. How about ASA, Inc.? He’s on a 55-41-2 run the last 30 days. You know where to go for your best analysis. As the season progresses, you know we're going to be in a position to deliver you the best analysis and picks that one can have in this market. Make sure you check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to find all of our handicappers' selections, comprehensive previews, and more!
Lakers - Heat preview, prediction and analysis
Lakers analysis
The Los Angeles Lakers are literally trying anything in their power to ensure that the next little bit without Anthony Davis is seamless as possible. That's hard to do when you lose four in a row in the fashion that the Lakers have had until Tuesday when they defeated the Orlando Magic 129-110 and pull aminated any qualms that there might have been about some poor play leading up to now. But in all fairness as it pertains to the Lakers, they have failed to cover in five of their last six and in four of those games they were really surprising underdogs. But I can't get over what in the world happened on Christmas Day when the Lakers gave up 51 points in the third quarter to the Dallas Mavericks and still almost found a way to cover. The Lakers have not looked good with Davis out of the lineup and there's only so much that LeBron James can do in order to will this team into the playoffs. Right now, sitting six games below .500, there is a lot of work to do for the Lakers. Them going on a short travel from Orlando to Miami off a second night of a back-to-back I would think would normally have a negative effect to it. But the brand coming off a 28 point performance in the win over it a really decent Orlando team has the prospects of them going into Miami, while they are struggling, to get back on track and find a way to get a win here. I know, easier said than done, but the Lakers are just not where they should be right now and they are going to need more than a decent performance against Orlando in order to take them seriously.
Heat analysis
Things have been a little up and down for the Miami Heat over the last couple of weeks. Before losing back-to-back home games against Chicago and Indiana before Christmas, Miami was on a four-game winning streak and looking much better than they did a little while ago. But Miami now is coming off a 113-110 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves at home on Monday. It wasn't the greatest offensive performance from Miami in this game such as Kyle Lowry scoring 18 points but dishing out nine assists, and Tyler Herro scoring 14 points but missing all eight of his three-point attempts. The fact that Miami still won despite shooting 13 to 49 from 3 point range and only taking eight free throws while making six of them might be the most on brand victory Miami has had this year, or it could be the most on brand Minnesota loss that we have seen because they need help in every which way. Miami is 2-3-1 against the spread in their last six games and before that they had lost three of the last four against the spread. So in short, Miami has been a very up and down team as it pertains to whether you can trust them outright or against the books. The fact that they were only favored by one against a banged up Minnesota team does not scream any positivity toward their good fortunes. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo did not play in the win against Minnesota, which should consider this team very lucky. They are both questionable with ankle injuries.
Prediction
I tend to go with the team that is not on travel and has a better chance of winning when they don't have their star players out. But I do wonder if Miami would rush back anybody that's on the injured list against the Lakers team that is not carrying their second best player. If Miami does not have its two top stars, I think it's going to be a much closer game than a lot of people may anticipate and I definitely see plausibility to where the Lakers can pull off an upset here. Lakers 110, Heat 107
Betting trends
Lakers are 2-12 ATS as a road underdog this season.
The over is 10-3 when the Lakers play a non-conference game this season.
Heat are 4-13 ATS at home this season.
Projected starting lineup
Lakers:
PG: Dennis Schroder
SG: Patrick Beverley
SF: Lonnie Walker IV
PF: LeBron James
C: Thomas Bryant
Heat:
PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Caleb Martin
PF: Jimmy Butler
C: Bam Adebayo
Injury report
Lakers: Anthony Davis (foot, out)
Heat: None
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
