by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026
Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Thursday, March 5, 2026
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Lakers +5.5, Nuggets -5.5; Over/Under: 238.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Lakers +5.5, Nuggets -5.5; Over/Under: 238.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Lakers +5.5, Nuggets -5.5; Over/Under: 238.5 points
Season Record
Los Angeles Lakers: 37-24 (1st place, Pacific Division)
Denver Nuggets: 38-24 (3rd place, Northwest Division)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Lakers: 5-5 last 10
Denver Nuggets: 5-5 last 10
Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets Preview and Analysis
The Lakers are entering this game with a 37-24 record overall this season and they are 19-12 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the Golden State Warriors, the Sacramento Kings, and the New Orleans Pelicans. Luka Dončić led the team in points in that game with 27 while LeBron James was next on the team with 21 points. LeBron James, Marcus Smart, and Luka Dončić each led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Luka Dončić led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 47% from the field, 29.7% from 3-point range, and 80.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.2 PPG against them. The Lakers have an ATS record of 33-28 this season and their O/U record is 32-29.
The Nuggets are entering this game with a 38-24 record overall this season and they are 16-12 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Utah Jazz. Jamal Murray led the team in points in that game with 45 while Nikola Jokić was next on the team with 22 points. Jamal Murray led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 54.1% from the field, 41% from 3-point range, and 91.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.1 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 34-28 this season and their O/U record is 39-23.
Lakers vs Nuggets Prediction
The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Nuggets have looked really good in their games this season with their 38-24 record overall which has them in the top half of the West. They have looked good on their home court too with their 16-12 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Lakers have looked really good in their games this season with their 37-24 record overall which has them in the top half of the West. They have been a good road team too with their 19-12 road record this year. The Lakers have been a better team on the road this season than they have been at home, but lately they haven't looked that good. They do have some momentum on their side with 3 wins in a row now, but they were beating up on bad teams in those games. They are still 5-5 in their last 10 games and they came out of the All-Star Break ice cold when they had to play against some tougher opponents. The Nuggets haven't looked any better lately as they are also 5-5 in their last 10 games and have been a better road team this year too, but they are off a win over the Jazz in their last one and have looked better since coming back from the break. Jokic has missed a lot of the season too, but he is back now and the team has a lot more talent on the bench than they had last year. The Lakers have been a solid team in the West all season, but they beat up on a lot of bad teams and have been really up and down against true contenders. The Nuggets are a true contender and they have been going toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the NBA all season, so look for the Nuggets to bring their best effort here and snap this weak win streak that the Lakers have been on. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game.
Lakers Nuggets Prediction: Our NBA Pick for Thursday, March 5, 2026 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 116 Lakers 108.
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NBA Betting Trends
Los Angeles Lakers: 31-20 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%). 20-10 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game. 9-3 ATS on the road versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% of their attempts or more. 8-3 OVER against Northwest division opponents.
Denver Nuggets: 1-4 ATS off a win against a division rival. 2-7 ATS at home revenging a loss vs opponent. 3-7 ATS at home off a road win. 11-2 OVER against Pacific division opponents. 10-1 OVER revenging a same season loss vs opponent.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Lakers: None.
Denver Nuggets: C. Johnson (PF) Day To Day - Ankle. S. Jones (SF) Day To Day - Shoulder. P. Watson (SF) Out - Hamstring. A. Gordon (PF) Out - Hamstring. T. Bates (SG) Out - Foot.
Notable Quotes
“Frankly, that's not a win we've had since probably November where we're down. A lot of those early wins when we started 15-4, we had a number of double-digit deficits in the second half and just stuck with it and kept playing. It was a good win for us to be able to do that again.” - J.J. Redick after his team’s win against the Pelicans in their game on Tuesday.
"He just carried us. He really did. He was the guy that had legs tonight. Tough shot making. We tried to get him into certain combinations where he had matchups that he liked, and Nikola was being guarded by three people, so it was Jamal's night." - David Adelman on Jamal Murray after his team’s win against the Jazz in their game on Monday.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Lakers
PG Luka Doncic
SG Austin Reaves
SF Marcus Smart
PF LeBron James
C Deandre Ayton
Denver Nuggets
PG Jamal Murray
SG Christian Braun
SF Cameron Johnson
PF Spencer Jones
C Nikola Jokic
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Lakers
PPG: Luka Doncic (32.4)
APG: Luka Doncic (8.6)
Reb/G: Deandre Ayton (8.3)
Denver Nuggets
PPG: Nikola Jokic (28.7)
APG: Nikola Jokic (10.3)
Reb/G: Nikola Jokic (12.6)
Coaches:
Los Angeles Lakers: JJ Redick (2nd season)
Denver Nuggets: David Adelman (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
