by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Oct 14, 2021
Game time: 9:07 p.m. ET
Venue: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Where to watch: TBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Dodgers -110, Giants -110
BetMGM: Dodgers -110, Giants -110
Caesars: Dodgers -105, Giants -105
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Dodgers - Giants preview and analysis
Game 5, National League Division Series -- Series tied 2-2
Well. We’ve made it to the most important game of this season.
The winner is the odds-on favorite out of the National League to make it to the World Series. The loser gets to suffer through a long winner.
The best part of it all? The books don’t even have a clue what’s going to happen Thursday when the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants meet in the winner-take-all Game 5 of the NLDS in San Francisco.
Most books, notably in Las Vegas, have it as a dead heat. Both teams are at -110 in most books, others have both at -105. That’s how dominant the Giants and Dodgers have been to this point, and this series has lived up to the hype in more ways than one.
The Dodgers forced Game 5 with a 7-2 win on Tuesday in Dodger Stadium. Thanks to a dominant bullpen and the awakening of bats, the defending World Series champions have pushed this series to the brink with the Atlanta Braves awaiting in the National League Championship Series.
“This is what baseball wants,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. “As I understand, all the series are done and so we’re going to be the only show in town. So if you have a pulse or you’re a sports fan, you better be watching Dodgers-Giants. It’s going to be a great one.”
Mookie Betts and Will Smith hit two-run home runs, and Walker Buehler threw a very solid 4.1 innings before the bullpen came in and shut the door. Between five relievers -- highlighted by Joe Kelly getting the win -- combined for 4.2 innings of four-hit ball and only one run allowed.
The 1-4 hitters each collected two hits, including Trea Turner and Corey Seager. Gavin Lux, batting sixth, also had two hits for the Dodgers.
“The playoffs are all about momentum,” Buehler said. “I’ve talked about that kind of, almost too much, but I think it’s huge, and a win like this for us, especially the fashion we did it, is huge for us in two days.”
The Giants have gotten by with their dominant pitching, but only got 1.2 innings from third ace Anthony DeSclafani, giving up five hits and two runs. Outside of Kris Bryant’s two hits, the bats quieted for the NL West champions. San Francisco had seven hits but didn’t get on the board until the top of the fifth.
“I feel like our team and the Dodgers team have both been playing meaningful games for awhile now,” Buster Posey said. “Obviously, this one coming up on Thursday is the most meaningful to this point. It should be fun.”
And we can’t think of any better pitching matchup than this one to close the series. Julio Urias will get the ball for the second time for the Dodgers after his win in Game 2, taking on ace Logan Webb after his 10-strikeout masterpiece in Game 1. Let’s hope the starting pitchers gives us one hell of an October game to remember.
No matter who wins, just enjoy this one.
Prediction
But if we have to pick a winner … I think Urias has been underappreciated all year. Between Max Scherzer coming to town and Buehler getting praise for his work, Urias is the 20-game winner. He settled things down in Game 2 on the road, and I have no doubt he can do it again one more time. Dodgers win 4-3
Betting trends
The Dodgers are 13-2 this season (+9.6 net games on the money line) after allowing four runs or less in six consecutive games.
The Dodgers are 27-6 in starts by Urias this season.
The Giants are 38-23 the past three seasons after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span.
Projected lineup
Dodgers:
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Corey Seager (L) SS
Trea Turner (R) 2B
Will Smith (R) C
Justin Turner (R) 3B
Gavin Lux (L) CF
Cody Bellinger (L) 1B
Chris Taylor (R) LF
Julio Urias (L) P
Giants:
Tommy La Stella (L) 2B
Darin Ruf (R) 1B
Brandon Crawford (L) SS
Buster Posey (R) C
Kris Bryant (R) RF
LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) LF
Evan Longoria (R) 3B
Mike Yastrzemski (L) CF
Logan Webb (R) P
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
