by Rod Pearson
Sunday, Aug 06, 2023
Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Monday, August 7, 2023
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: MLB Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -112, Padres -108; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -112, Padres -108; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -112, Padres -108; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
Los Angeles Dodgers: 63-46 (1st place, NL West)
San Diego Padres: 55-56 (4th place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Dodgers: 6-4 last 10
San Diego Padres: 7-3 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Dodgers are entering this series on a 3 game winning streak and completed the sweep 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Oakland Athletics in their last series. They enter this game with a 63-46 record overall and have a road record of 29-26. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Padres on Monday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Sunday. They also won the series opener of this series on Friday but lost the 2nd game on Saturday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .794 OPS. Lance Lynn is their starting pitcher on Sunday while Tony Gonsolin is making his start in this game on Monday. He is 6-4 with a 4.11 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 3 Ks on 5 hits through 5 IP against the Oakland Athletics.
The Padres are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-56 record overall and have a home record of 30-26. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the LA Dodgers on Monday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Sunday. They also lost the 1st game of this series on Friday but won the 2nd game on Saturday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Rich Hill is their starting pitcher on Sunday while Seth Lugo is making his start in this game on Monday. He is 4-5 with a 3.54 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 3 BB with 9 strikeouts on 5 hits through 7 innings played against the Colorado Rockies.
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres haven't been great this season with their record still under .500 on the year but their offense has been getting a lot better in their games lately and they will be looking to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers here as they try to get back into the playoff race in the NL. The Dodgers have been rolling in their games since coming out of the All-Star break as they also have one of the best offenses in the entire MLB, but lately they have been losing some steam with their pitching staff giving up a ton of runs and the Padres will be able to take advantage of that here. The Dodgers have Gonsolin starting in this game and he is coming off a good start in his last outing but he hasn't been great in most of his starts lately and he will be at risk of giving up some runs on the road here with this Padres lineup getting hot now. The Padres will have Lugo on the mound in this game and he has been really good in his starts this season, pitching especially well as of late since he hasn't been giving up many runs at all. He will continue to pitch well at home here and the Dodgers haven't had a great bullpen lately either so even if they come away with a lead from Lugo, they will blow it late in this game like they have been doing lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game.
Dodgers Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Monday, August 7, 2023 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Padres 5 Dodgers 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers: 48-28 (+9.4 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 32-19 (+7.6 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 36-17 OVER in road games. 17-6 OVER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5.
San Diego Padres: 55-56 (-21.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 28-26 (-12 units) on the moneyline in home games. SETH LUGO is 17-9 OVER as an underdog of +100 or higher and 7-3 OVER after giving up 2 earned runs or less in his last 2 outings.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Dodgers: M. Muncy (3B) Ques Sun - Wrist. T. Cyr (RP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. C. Kershaw (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. D. Hudson (RP) Early Sept - Knee. J. Deluca (LF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. J. Marisnick (CF) Mid Aug - Hamstring. S. Miller (RP) Out indefinitely - Neck. D. May (SP) out for season - Elbow. A. Reyes (SP) out for season - Shoulder. J. Feyereisen (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. W. Buehler (SP) Early Sept - Elbow. G. Lux (2B) out for season - Knee. B. Treinen (RP) Early Sept - Shoulder.
San Diego Padres: J. Musgrove (SP) Out Indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Hill (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. Carlton (RP) Mid Aug - Elbow. M. Wacha (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. A. Jacob (SP) Mid Sept - Elbow. R. Knehr (SP) out for season - Elbow. A. Morejon (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm.
Notable Quotes
“It's a resilient club. We hung in there and we got to Suarez, which was big, and got to the lefty, Cosgrove. ... The first six innings we were sort of lifeless, a credit to Yu (Darvish) and then after that we picked up.” - Dave Roberts after his team’s win against the Padres in their game on Friday.
“I think he has a pretty good understanding that we needed him in that game. Cooler heads prevailed.” - Bob Melvin after his team’s win against the LA Dodgers in their game on Saturday.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
Amed Rosario (R) 2B
Chris Taylor (R) 3B
James Outman (L) CF
Enrique Hernandez (R) LF
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
San Diego Padres
Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Juan Soto (L) LF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B
Ji Man Choi (L) DH
Gary Sanchez (R) C
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Jake Marisnick (.400)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (147)
Home Runs: Mookie Betts (29)
RBI: Freddie Freeman (77)
Stolen Bases: Freddie Freeman (15)
Wins: Clayton Kershaw (10)
Saves: Evan Phillips (14)
ERA: Tyler Cyr (0.00)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Ha-Seong Kim (.286)
Hits: Xander Bogaerts (107)
Home Runs: Juan Soto (24)
RBI: Juan Soto (72)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (24)
Wins: Joe Musgrove (10)
Saves: Josh Hader (26)
ERA: Alek Jacob (0.00)
Managers:
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (8th season)
San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
