Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/15/2022

Game Time: 9:37 pm ET, Saturday, October 15th, 2022

Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California

Where to Watch: FS1, Fox Deportes 

DraftKings: Moneyline:  Dodgers -125, Padres +105; O/U 7.5

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Dodgers -125, Padres +105; O/U 7.5

PointsBet:  Moneyline: Dodgers -120, Padres +105; O/U 7.5

 

Padres: 89-73, 2nd place NL West / 1-1 NLDS

Dodgers: 111-51, 1st place NL West / 1-1 NLDS

Game 4 of this tense Dodgers/Padres series will go off Saturday Night.  Game 3 is Friday night (tonight) and that game will swing the pendulum dramatically no matter which team wins.  The series at the moment is tied 1-1… The Dodgers have scored 8 runs and the Padres have scored 8 runs.  The Dodgers have stranded base runners, the Padres have stranded base runners. Which of these teams is the safe bet?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a small problem over the first two games… All-Star LF Mookie Betts is only 1 for 8 at the plate.  He is the lead off batter for the best 1-2-3 lineup in baseball.  As Mookie goes the team tends to go.  During the season Mookie feasted on the Padres and helped the Dodgers to win nearly 3X as many games as the Padres in 19 head to head matchups (14-5).  If Mookie recovers to simply hit for average it will mean he is due big games going forward.  If Mookie does not, if the Padres have found the magic to pitching to baseball’s best lead off batter?... Then the Dodgers will struggle.  Dodgers manager Dave Roberts heavily relies on analytics.  His front office has paid the largest payroll for him and the analytics have helped Roberts see the inside of 3 World Series with 1 winning World Series in the last 5 seasons.  The problem with that is sometimes baseball requires going with your gut and playing the hot guy instead of the analytically approved guy.  If the Dodgers do not win this series? Dodger fans will lay all of the blame on Roberts. A big bonus for the Dodgers prospects in Game 4 will be starting pitcher Tim Anderson.  The left hander was 15-5 this season with a 2.57 ERA.

The San Diego Padres have indeed found a nice way to improve the team’s fortunes in the postseason.  That is the Bullpen.  Much maligned during the regular season against the Dodgers… in the last two games Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Nick Martinez are killing the game.  Shutout innings after shutout innings.  “They’re coming in and attacking hitters, getting ahead, throwing their breaking balls and their offspeed for chase and for strikes. They were able to pitch in, as well. That’s a recipe for a bullpen that’s lights out.”  said Padres catcher Austin Nola.  The Problem the Padres will face going into Game 4… is How do they match the Dodgers starting pitchers?  It was nice to get a win in Game 2… but that was with Yu Darvish on the mound… Going forward they have Blake Snell, who has obscenely average numbers for the season, in game 3.  For Game 4 it gets worse… They will have to decide between Sean Manealator Manea or Joe Musgrove (who the Dodgers smoked all season long… as did lots of other teams). 

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LAD: 112-52, 776 ML, 68-82-14 O/U, 54-27 on the road.

SDP: 92-75, -587 ML, 78-83-6 O/U, 44-37 at home.

The Dodgers finished the season 1st in scoring with 5.23 runs per game, 4th in batting average with .257, 1st on OBP with .333.

The San Diego Padres finished the season 13th in runs scored with 4.35 per game, 16th in batting average with .241, and 8th in OBP with .318.

The Dodgers pitchers finished the season 1st in ERA with 2.80, 1st in WHIP with 1.05, and the fielders finished 13th in errors with 83 on the season. 

The Padres pitchers finished the season 11th in ERA with 3.81, 9th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 8th in errors with 76 on the season.  

Our prediction for Saturday, October 15th is…  Dodgers 5 - Padres 3

I’m going to keep pressing the Dodgers.  For Game 4 the bet should be Dodgers on the moneyline.  While the series has moved to San Diego?... The Dodgers pitching advantage should have improved during each of these San Diego games.  

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The Dodgers are 36-17 against San Diego (+11.9 UNITS) over the last 3 seasons.

The Dodgers are 15-6 against the Padres this season (+5.9 UNITS).

San Diego is 44-37 in home games this season (-12.3 UNITS).

Dodgers: LHP Tyler Anderson, 15-5, 2.57 ERA, 138 strikeouts in 178.2 innings pitched.  1.00 WHIP.  Mr Anderson has announced himself as a vital part of this Dodgers starting rotation.  The 32 got out to a very hot 14-1 start.. But finished the season 15-5.  There was a brief stint on the injury list and the Dodgers have handled him softly as the season came to an end.  All gloves are off and he will be expected to be himself going forward.

Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove, 10-7, 2.93 ERA, 184 strikeouts in 181 innings pitched.  1.08 WHIP.  "Moose"  has been solid this season but it has not lead to a great record. In fact he is 4 games below .500 for his career as a starter.

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Will Myers, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, C Will Smith, DH Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner, 2B Gavin Lux, LF Trayce Thompson, CF Trayce Thompson.   

Padres: Bob “um mah ma” Melvin

Dodgers: Dave “Crazy stats” Roberts

Cloudy, Humidity 69%, Wind 7 mph.  The day’s high will be 69*... His