Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/14/2022

Game Time: 8:37 pm ET, Friday, October 14th, 2022

Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California

Where to Watch: FS1 

DraftKings: Moneyline: Dodgers -125, Padres +105; O/U 7.5

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Dodgers -120, Padres +100, O/U 7.5

BetRivers:  Moneyline: Dodgers -121, Padres +107, O/U 7.5

 

Padres: 89-73, 2nd place NL West / 1-1 NLDS

Dodgers: 111-51, 1st place NL West / 1-1 NLDS

Game 3 of this matchup will go off Friday Night.  In Game 2 the San Diego Padres did what they had done 5 of 19 times this season… They beat the Dodgers.  Their case was helped by the Dodgers stranding 9 base runners.  The Padres are good and they spoiled a perfect night of betting, dropping me to 4-1 in MLB predictions in the Divisional round. If you have been paying attention all season you would know the Dodgers snap back after any Padres win with a big game.  We will worry about the pitching matchup… specifically that the Padres have used up Yu Darvish and now must go with Snell or Manealator… both of whom the Dodgers have feasted on.

A National League Divisional series that will hit some very expected results.  The San Diego Padres built their roster in the hopes of someday beating the Los Angeles Dodgers. They may one day do it… but this series is not the day.  This season the Dodgers played the Padres a bunch.. Winning every single series and SWEEPING 3 of them.  The Padres thought that they had the best approach to finally doing it by bidding highest for the services of Juan Soto (The Dodgers abandoned the chase for Soto when they realized that their eventual bid for Shohei Ohtani (coming soon) will be around 50 million a year)... but the Padres landed Soto.  The idea was clear… They would pair Soto with Machado and then in August Fernando Tatis Jr would return from injury and all of a sudden they would be the 1-2-3 Dodgers destroyer.  Then Tatis Jr tested positive for banned substances… You may know this talk as steroids or performance enhancing substances.  The result is that the Dodgers come into this playoff series just as they did every Padres/Dodgers series this season… with the MUCH better line-up.  A close look at pitching will tell you that the Padres have two good guys… 3 medium guys.. And average or trash after that.  The Dodgers pitching starting rotation is 1-4 the best rotation in the MLB… The bullpen is also the best bullpen in the MLB.  This is not a close series… It could have been but a bottle of Lance Armstrong Special ruined the Padres plans.

The San Diego Padres squeaked into the postseason on just enough wins to get the Wild Card bye… now they have to face the Dodgers. They come into this matchup average at the plate and slightly above average on the mound.  They get the benefit of playing some home games.  They also get the benefit of knowing The New York Mets have been blown out of the postseason already.  They don't get the benefit of avoiding the #1 batting AND #1 pitching team in the league.  They do have one very strong spot… That is the 1-2-3 batting lineup of Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto.  That alone means the Padres could win any game at any time.  Should they win just one of these games at Dodger Stadium… they will have stolen an advantage in the series that is worth writing home about.  

The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games this season and only went .500 over their last 6 games. They have been toying with the pitching and toying with the lineup to make sure everyone available will be ready and rested to play.   As said already the Dodgers are #1 in batting and #1 in pitching… any thought the Padres have of a win, or a few wins should start with gimmicks to get around the numbers.  I’m not sure baseball even has enough gimmicks.  In this matchup the betting lines will take into fact the Dodgers propensity to score 5.23 runs per game and a team ERA that sits at 2.80… which is not only a good team ERA but would be a great big number for an individual to ask for lots more money. The Dodgers have the advantage, it is clear.

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The San Diego Padres finished the season 13th in runs scored with 4.35 per game, 16th in batting average with .241, and 8th in OBP with .318.

The Dodgers finished the season 1st in scoring with 5.23 runs per game, 4th in batting average with .257, 1st on OBP with .333.

The Padres pitchers finished the season 11th in ERA with 3.81, 9th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 8th in errors with 76 on the season.  They will need a sudden uptick in pitching in order to even compete against the Dodgers… Not every pitcher is YU.

The Dodgers pitchers finished the season 1st in ERA with 2.80, 1st in WHIP with 1.05, and the fielders finished 13th in errors with 83 on the season. The problem with the errors is of course Cody Bellinger… a guy who has dropped (in just two seasons) from MVP to terrible hitter.  He is a good fielder, but the Dodgers constantly have to protect him from the lineup… That has led to some crazy substitutions all over the field.  The Dodgers are only a couple months from installing Trayce Thompson to start next season in Cody’s position permanently.  Cody will have to find his strike or forever remember the Glory Days.

Our prediction for Friday, October 14th is…  Dodgers 9 - Padres 1

Bet the Dodgers and the OVER.  It is up to you whether you want to bet the ML or ATS… but it is my belief the Dodgers will hit all 3 with the OVER.

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The Dodgers are 33-17 Under with Tony Gonsolin as the starter.

The Padres are 18-8 Under at home with Blake Snell starting.

The Dodgers are 42-17 (+16.1 net games) on the road in nighttime games this season.
The Dodgers are 2-7 (minus 7.6 net games) on the road with Tony Gonsolin when priced as a favorite of -150 or less.

Dodgers: RHP Tony Gonsolin, 16-1, 2.14 ERA, 119 strikeouts in 130 innings pitched. 0.87 WHIP.  Gonsolin made himself a pure ACE this season.  He also hit the IR at the end of the season with some shoulder and arm problems.  If Tony is Tony?… The Dodgers win easily.  If Tony is knocking off rust?... The Dodgers will have to lean heavily on the batting lineup to get the win.

Padres: LHP Blake Snell, 8-10, 3.38 ERA, 171 strikeouts in 128 innings pitched. 1.20 WHIP.  Blake’s name and career so far lends him a lot of benefit of the doubt.  Truth told though… He is having a very up and down season with lots of early losses.

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Will Myers, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, C Will Smith, DH Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner, 2B Gavin Lux, CF Cody Bellinger, LF Joey Gallo.   ** Trayce Thompson is expected to get the majority of the minutes over Gallo and Bellinger, guys who simply cannot hit anymore. **

Padres: Bob Melvin

Dodgers: Dave Roberts

A cloudy day will bleed into a cool night of 60*... with an obnoxious 78% humidity.  Wind 8 mph.