Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/28/2022

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Wednesday, September 28th, 2022

Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California

Where to Watch: MLB.tv, 

DraftKings: Moneyline:   Dodgers -141, Padres +120; O/U 7.5

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  

PointsBet:  Moneyline: 

 

Padres: 85-68, 2nd place NL West

Dodgers: 106-47, 1st place NL West

Game 2 of this off-kilter NL West battle. Game 1 will go off Tuesday night, but this prediction will be for Wednesday;s game…. Before the finish of Tuesday’s game.  The prediction for Tuesday still stands. The fun of life may be in knowing what should happen and putting money on it to see if it does.  The prediction for Wednesday is all about the pitching matchup… with a little nod toward who the better offense is… let’s bet some money and go home happy.

A National League West battle between the 1st place team and the 2nd place team… but before you go thinking there will be plenty of drama… or that these teams are close in some way… Think again.  The Dodgers are head and shoulders above the Padres.  The Dodgers have smashed the Padres all season long… In fact if the Dodgers find a way to NOT win the World Series it may be because of all the super easy competition they faced in the NL West all season long.   The Padres are not a bad team but the rosters simply do not match up in a competitive way.  The Padres have 2 great hitters in their line-up, with a couple of bright spots alongside them.  The Dodgers have 3 great hitters batting 1,2,3 in the line-up… followed by 4 legit home run threats, followed by 2 bright spots… oh and the relief players like Trayce Thompson and Joey Gallo… are a combination of bright spots and home run threats.  The Dodgers have the #1 batting line-up in baseball for a reason… They have the best guys.  The pitching does not match-up well either.  The Padres are slightly above average in pitching while the Dodgers have the BEST pitching numbers in all of baseball. Yu Darvish will not be available to pitch All of the Padres games… but someone as good or better will be available to pitch ALL of the Dodgers games.  (barring injury or experimentation).

The San Diego Padres have won 7 of their last 10 games. They went 2-1 against the Colorado Rockies, 2-1 against the St Louis Cardinals, 3-1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.   They took a similar path as the Dodgers over the last 10 games for similar results… except now they have to actually face the Dodgers.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 7 of their last 10 games. Going 2-1 against the St Louis Cardinals, 3-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and 2-0 against the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers keep cutting through the NL West like a machete through paper.

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The Padres are 12th in scoring with 4.43 runs per game, 18th in batting average with .241, 8th in OBP with .318

The Dodgers are 1st in scoring with 5.45 runs per game, 3rd in batting average with .263, and 1st in OBP with .338

The Padres pitchers are 11th in ERA with 3.86, 9th in WHIP with 1.21, and their fielders are 8th in errors with 72 on the season so far.

The Dodgers pitchers are 1st in ERA with 2.89, 1st in WHIP with 1.07 (that is a team average!), and the fielders are 15th in errors with 78 on the season so far.

Our prediction for Wednesday, September 28th is… Dodgers 8 - Padres 2

Again the numbers say 8-2 is logical.  And again the bet is for the Dodgers on the moneyline.  You have to remember that if you want more juice on such an obvious matchup you can bet ARS for even money.  But in baseball a win is a win and my recommendation is for the Dodgers on the moneyline. If you had bet the Dodgers all season on the moneyline you would have been right 106 times already.  Do it again.

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The Dodgers are 27-10 when the moneyline is -100 to -150 this season.

The Dodgers are 46-15 as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

The Padres have no significant betting lines above .500 over the last 3 seasons.

Padres: SS Fernando Tatis Jr OUT (Suspended for JUICE) 

Dodgers: C Austin Barnes (personal) Out ** 3B E. Rios (hammy) Out ** CF K Pillar (shoulder) Out ** 

Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove, 10-7, 3.12 ERA, 169 strikeouts in 170 innings pitched.  1.08 WHIP. “Moose” has been on a slide from reliable pitcher to barely above .500.

Dodgers: LHP Julio Urias, 17-7, 2.25 ERA, 157 strikeouts in 164 innings pitched. 0.95 WHIP.  Julio has the best ERA in the league and he is the Dodgers 3rd pitcher in the rotation… WHY? Cause the Dodgers have them all.

Padres: SS Ha-Seong Kim, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Brandon Drury, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Will Meyers, LF Jurickson Profar, C Luis Campuso, CF Jose Azocar

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, C Will Smith, 3B Max Muncy, DH Justin Turner, 2B Gavin Lux, LF Joey Gallo, CF Cody Bellinger

Padres: Bob “Dammit we were so close!” Melvin

Dodgers: Dave “Is this heaven?” Roberts

Mostly Sunny, 80*, Humidity 70%.  a beautiful San Diego day will become a nice warm night to watch baseball. Some people sweat the summer and freeze the winter… In San Diego a couple of Hawaiian Shirts and some sports jerseys can last a guy all year. If only they had an NFL or NBA team.