Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/11/2022

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Sunday, September 11th, 2022

Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California

Where to Watch: MLB.tv, MLBN (JIP)

DraftKings: Moneyline: Dodgers -149, Padres +130; O/U 7.5

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  

PointsBet:  Moneyline: 

 

Dodgers: 94-43, 1st place NL West

Padres: 77-62, 2nd place NL West

Game 3 of the Dodgers/Padres series.  The Padres won game 1: 5-4.  Game 2 is playing tonight (Saturday) and that prediction ( a big Dodgers win) still stands.  This prediction is for Game 3 which will go off Sunday while the whole sports world will be watching football’s Sunday Week 1.  The benefit for us is of course that a win here will help us build our bankroll for more football betting.  

Again! Again! Again!  A National League West Matchup that is starting to feel like bullying.  The Los Angeles Dodgers are in 1st place while the San Diego Padres are in 2nd place in the NL West.  Though it is not close!  The Dodgers have a 19 game lead over the 2nd place Padres.  The big bugaboo of this battle is that the Dodgers have won 8 of the last 9 matchups in this series.  They keep on battling and the Dodgers keep on pummeling the Padres.  The Padres will have home field advantage in this series, but they went 0-3 the last time they had home field advantage in a series with the Dodgers.  This is more than Southern California’s big brother, little brother driveway hoops session.  The Dodgers (fans) have a real hatred for the Padres only bested by their hatred for the San Francisco Giants.  And that is only because the Giants have been more relevant over the last several decades.  The Padres can win the occasional game.. They have done it 76 times this season… just not often against the Dodgers.  This is a great betting opportunity if you are willing to take the risk of spotting points with your book.  The Dodgers won the last matchup by 5 runs and the win the game before that was by 11 runs.  If that trend follows… you could conceivably have spotted 2.5 runs or even 3.5 runs to get that MUCH BIGGER payday than the moneyline will provide.  If that amount of risk scares you?... You can find the Great Betting opportunity on a small moneyline return.  We have to check the pitching… then let's make a prediction.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have stunk up the joint recently… only winning 6 of their last 10.  It has coincided with a deliberate effort to audition the young guys on the mound for the upcoming postseason.  Plus ACE pitcher Tony Gonsolin has to tackle a two week break to mend a sore elbow.  Yet, still the Dodgers find themselves 1st in every statistical batting category AND every statistical pitching category.  To make matters worse for every other team in the league is that Max Muncy has found his way out of a hitting slump and knocked 3 homeruns over the last two games.  Also struggling former league MVP Cody Bellinger has fallen out of the lineup to be replaced by Trayce Thompson (yes, the son of Mychal Thompson and brother of Klay Thompson) … Trayce has shown a knack for smacking the ball out of the park… If the Dodgers have found a way to improve their already #1 batting… the league is collectively on notice.  They went 2-1 against the San Francisco Giants, 2-1 against the San Diego Padres.  The Dodgers are in the position to set franchise win records.  They shouldn’t take any bit of their foot off the gas now.

The San Diego Padres have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They throttled the Giants…, They have had some real good moments.  Padres watchers have noted that pitcher Sean Manaea has fallen off big time… with two embarrassing losses during that stretch.  While pitcher Yu (everyone likes Yu) Darvish and pitcher Joe Musgrove have looked at the height of their powers with two big wins each.  They went 2-1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 1-2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, 3-0 against the San Francisco Giants, and 0-1 against the Kansas City Royals in an embarrassing 15-7 loss.  The Padres have to find pride as their engine against the Dodgers… anything else and the numbers will bury them.

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LAD 94-42, 1252 ML, 58-65-13 O/U, 45-24 in road games.

SD: 76-62, -699 ML, 65-69-4 O/U 37-29 in home games.

  

The Dodgers are 1st in scoring with 5.45 runs per game, 3rd in batting average with .263, and 1st in OBP with .338

The Padres are 15th in scoring with 4.41 runs per game, 19th in batting average with .241, 6th in OBP with .320.

The Dodgers pitchers are 1st in ERA with 2.89, 1st in WHIP with 1.07 (that is a team average!), and the fielders are 8th in errors with 54 on the season so far.

The Padres pitchers are 13th in ERA with 3.88, 9th in WHIP with 1.23, and 12th in errors with 68 on the season so far.

 

Our prediction for Sunday, September 11th is… Dodgers 9 - Padres 3

This is the big one.  The Padres are out of quality pitchers and will be piecing together junk against the best batting line-up in all of baseball.  This has happened before with the Dodgers and Padres this season… after a Padres win the Dodgers tend to go off big.  The bet here is for the Dodgers while spotting 2.5 points with your book.  Get the bigger return.  It is on the table.

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The Dodgers are 40-13 as a favorite of -125 to -175 (+20.4 Units) this season.

The Padres are 0-7 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 (-7 Units) this season.

The betting public is correct when moving the moneyline in Dodgers games 54% since 1992. (+105.5 Units)

Dodgers: C Austin Barnes (personal) Out ** 3B E. Rios (hammy) Out ** CF K Pillar (shoulder) Out ** 

Padres: LF J Soto Prob ** 3B B Drury (head) OUT ** SS F Tatis Jr (suspended) Out ** C J Alfaro Out ** 

Dodgers: LHP Andrew Heaney, 2-2, 2.94 ERA, 78 strikeouts in 52 innings pitched.  1.08 WHIP.  Heaney is a quality 31 year old who has improved his ERA and WHIP this season.  It helps that he has a great bullpen behind him… and will get a ton of run support.

Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove, 9-6, 3.16 ERA, 152 strikeouts in 153 innings pitched,  1.08 WHIP.  “Moose” has been real solid for the Padres this season.  However his stats seem to get worse as the season goes on.  The early promise of his performance has steeply dropped off the cliff.  He is 1-2 in his last 7 games with a 4.70 ERA and giving up 46 hits for 20 earned runs.  It has not been good for “Moose” lately.

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, C Will Smith, 3B Max Muncy, DH Justin Turner, 2B Gavin Lux, LF Joey Gallo, CF Cody Bellinger

Padres: SS Ha Seong Kim, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, LF Jurickson Profar, 1B Will Myers, 2B Jake Cronenworth, C Asutin Nola, CF Jose Azocar

Dodgers: Dave “Is this heaven?” Roberts

Padres: Bob “ um ma ma” Melvin

Partly Cloudy, 80*, Humidity 76%, wind 9 mph.  The air will be packed with water as a result of tropical storms hitting Mexico 50 miles south.