by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Aug 09, 2021
Game time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Where to watch: SportsNet LA, NBCSP
Season-to-date
Dodgers: 67-45 (2nd place, NL West)
Phillies: 59-53 (1st place, NL East)
Projected lineup
Dodgers:
Trea Turner (R) 2B
Max Muncy (L) 1B
AJ Pollock (R) LF
Justin Turner (R) 3B
Corey Seager (L) SS
Chris Taylor (R) CF
Will Smith (R) C
Cody Bellinger (L) RF
Max Scherzer (R) P
Phillies:
Travis Jankowski (L) CF
Jean Segura (R) 2B
Bryce Harper (L) RF
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Brad Miller (L) 1B
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Ronald Torreyes (R) SS
Luke Williams (R) LF
Aaron Nola (R) P
Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Dodgers -160, Phillies +140; Over 9 -120, Under 9 +100
BetMGM: Dodgers -155, Phillies +125
PointsBet: Dodgers -165, Phillies +140
Bet365: Dodgers -165, Phillies +145
Recent form
Dodgers: Winners of five of last seven
Phillies: Eight consecutive victories
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Dodgers - Phillies Preview
Think back to June 16, the last time the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies played each other.
Not much in the grand scheme of things has changed. The Phillies were a .500 ball club and trying to catch the New York Mets in the National League East. The Dodgers had one of the best records in baseball but were chasing the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.
The Dodgers are still chasing the Giants, but it’s been a whirlwind of a turnaround for the Phillies, primarily in the last week. Philadelphia is the hottest team in baseball with eight straight wins and hold a two-game lead on the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East.
Los Angeles may still be in the wild card hunt, but the Dodgers re-tooled at the trade deadline with adding Max Scherzer to the rotation. He’ll get the start on Tuesday when the teams meet in Philadelphia to start the first of their three-game series.
Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner were the Dodgers’ mammoth trade deadline acquisitions to bolster an already deep roster. The reigning World Series champions are coming off winning two of three against the Los Angeles Angels at Dodger Stadium this past weekend.
The Dodgers won 8-2 on Sunday behind two-run home runs from Albert Pujols and Cody Bellinger. Pujols was waived by the Angels 24 games into the season, only to be picked up by the Southern California rivals. He’s batting .265 with nine homers in 55 games with the Dodgers.
“I’m just glad I was able to contribute today to the ballclub and help our ballclub win the series today,” Pujols said, per MLB.com. “That’s the first time I saw some of those guys since I got released. I still have a great relationship with 95 percent of those guys over there. But at the end of the day, we all have a job to do and that’s to get ready to play the game.”
Scherzer won his first start with the Dodgers on Wednesday, a 7-5 win over the Houston Astros. The former World Series champion with the Washington Nationals allowed two runs in seven innings, while striking out 10.
Opposite Scherzer and the Dodgers is a team the ace knows rather well, and are the hottest team in baseball because of it. The Phillies are coming off a three-game sweep of the Mets in Philly, with a four-game sweep of the Nationals preceding that.
Zack Wheeler, the former Mets pitcher, pitched a two-hit complete game with 11 strikeouts on Sunday in a 3-0 win. He was dominant from the first pitch, dropping his ERA to 2.42 with a 10-6 record. He’s established himself as Philadelphia’s ace as the playoffs draw near. The 31-year-old has won four of his last five starts.
Very fitting on the day the Phillies retired the late Roy Halladay’s No. 34.
“To do that on this day, what can you say?” Wheeler said, per MLB.com. “Today was his day. I just tried to pitch like him.”
Aaron Nola is expected to take the mound for the Phillies. Both teams have Monday night off before the series begins.
The Dodgers need to find a way to cool down Bryce Harper. Since July 22, the former MVP has batted .375 with 10 RBIs in 18 games; the Phillies are 12-6 during that stretch.
Trends
The Dodgers have been a favorite in all but three games this season. While a whopping favorite, they’ve taken care of business. L.A. is 52-26 when a favorite of -150 or more. Ironically enough, the Dodgers odds take a hit when a road favorite of -110 or higher; they’re only 31-22 (-2.6 units).
Scherzer is 4-1 when the money line is -125 to -175 with the under cashing five times. He’s 14-4 all-time against the Phillies with a 2.38 ERA
The Dodgers are 7-0 this season in the following game after a three-game series against an interleague opponent.
The Phillies, who have not lost in the month of August, are 23-21 when an underdog of +100 to +150. Nola is not the right pitcher to have on this night, however. The Phillies are 11-11 (-4.2) when Nola starts, but 6-3 at home and 2-0 against NL West opponents. The over is 12-10.
Prediction
It’s been fun to see the Phillies be one of the NL East teams to make a push. Their pitching has been fun to watch, and seeing Harper rush toward the top of the MVP race has been exhilarating. However, this matchup doesn’t favor Philadelphia. Getting Scherzer on a contender will give him life. If that first start is of any indication, the Dodgers should win this one. Dodgers win 8-5, over cashes.
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
