by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Aug 14, 2021
Game time: 7:08 p.m. ET
Venue: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Where to watch: ESPN
Season-to-date (entering Saturday)
Dodgers: 70-46 (2nd place, NL West)
Mets: 59-56 (3rd place, NL East)
Projected lineup
Dodgers:
Trea Turner (R) 2B
Max Muncy (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
Corey Seager (L) SS
AJ Pollock (R) LF
Chris Taylor (R) 3B
Cody Bellinger (L) CF
Billy McKinney (L) RF
Max Scherzer (R) P
Mets:
Brandon Nimmo (L) CF
Jeff McNeil (L) 2B
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Dominic Smith (L) LF
Michael Conforto (L) RF
J.D. Davis (R) 3B
Jonathan Villar (S) SS
Tomas Nido (R) C
Carlos Carrasco (R) P
Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Dodgers -180, Mets +155; O/U 8 -110
BetMGM: Dodgers -190, Mets +155
FanDuel: Dodgers -184, Mets +154
Recent form
Dodgers: Won five of six
Mets: Won three of four
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Dodgers - Mets preview
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will wrap up their three-game set at Citi Field on Sunday that may answer some questions.
For one, this series has shown that the Mets may still have some fight left in them. With as much talk about the other National League East teams in contention, the Mets have fallen off a tad. Now with Javy Baez on the IL, it’s been a rough week for the Mets.
But the Mets battled hard Friday only to lose 6-5 in 10 innings, thanks to the Fresh Prince of L.A., Will Smith hitting a two-run home run in the extra frame. New York followed that with a gritty defensive effort Saturday highlighted by Taijuan Walker taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning.
Only to be broken up by, you guessed it, Smith.
The three-game series turns to its conclusion Sunday with the Mets needing a victory to reel off some confidence. It won’t be easy knowing Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Dodgers. The ace has been stellar in two appearances since coming over from the Washington Nationals at the trade deadline. He’s allowed two earned runs in two starts; one was shortened to 3.1 IP thanks to a rain delay, but Scherzer has struck out 16 batters in that span.
The right-hander’s command is on point and he’s been mowing people down since finding this groove with the defending World Series champions. They’re going to be without Mookie Betts (hip) for the next week, but the depth of the Dodgers is always what’s saved them time and time again.
The Mets will send Carlos Carassco to the mound for his fourth start of the season since returning from a torn hamstring. It hasn’t been a promising stretch for Carassco; all three starts have resulted in no decisions and he’s only gone into the fifth inning one time.
It’s going to be a strong climb for the Mets to get back to the playoffs and it’ll have to be because of their pitching. The offense just isn’t consistent enough to be dangerous; not that it’s easy to go through the likes of Walker Buehler or Julio Urias, but Scherzer is a beast that will feast on struggling batters.
Betting trends
Teams are 11-4 as a favorite of -110 or higher when Scherzer is on the bump. At -125 to -175 when Scherzer pitches, teams are 5-1. The under in those matchups is 6-0 and 10-5 overall.
The Mets haven’t done well in the underdog role. At +100 or higher, the Mets are 17-26 (-5) with the under at a 23-20 mark. But against NL West teams, the Mets are 14-7 (+7) with the under being a slight favorite (11-10).
Prediction
This has all the makings of the perfect time to take the under. The Mets have done a great job keeping the Dodgers’ bats quiet this series, but their bats haven’t been any better. To expect them to wake up against a red-hot Scherzer is almost suicide. For as good as the Mets looked on Saturday, this is why the Dodgers picked up Scherzer; to have as an ace that will be dangerous no matter when he goes on the mound. That’s why Los Angeles isn’t out of the division race yet, and they’ll show why Sunday. Dodgers win, under cashes.
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
