Game Time: 3:10 pm ET, Sunday, July 31st, 2022 

Venue: Coors Field, Denver Colorado

Where to Watch: MLB.tv (free)

DraftKings: Dodgers -179, Rockies +155; O/U 6.5

Caesars:  Dodgers -189, Rockies +155; O/U 6.5

PointsBet: 

 

Dodgers: 67-32, 1st place NL West

Rockies: 45-56, 5th place NL West

The Los Angeles Dodgers keep beating the Colorado Rockies.  This shouldn’t be a surprise with just a quick look at the pitching numbers of both ballclubs… or a quick look at the standings… or a quick look at the last 10 years between these clubs.  It all breaks toward Dodger victory. This Dodger team recently SWEPT the San Francisco Giants… This Dodger team recently SWEPT the San Diego Padres…. The only reason for pause is that THIS is baseball…. The Dodgers also recently went 1-2 against the lowly, lowly, dumpster fire Washington Nationals.  So, anything can happen!  But the numbers firmly say the Dodgers have the advantage.  Let’s look at the numbers and pitching matchup…. Let’s make a prediction.

A National League West matchup between the best in the division and the worst.  Still nothing is a given.  The Rockies should not feel overwhelmed by their 23 game deficit to the first place Dodgers.   Still the Rockies should feel overwhelmed by their 10 more losses than wins… mostly from a lack of pitching.  The Dodgers won’t have the luxury of playing it cute against the Rockies either… In the series against the Nationals, the Dodgers sat their best pitchers to give them extra rest and went with a couple of guys who are green and trying to find their way in the MLB… the results were disastrous.  So, against the Rockies the Dodgers will feel the need to actually put their best foot forward on the mound.  

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 8 of their last 10 games.  They had a solid 8-game winning streak going until the National came to town (can any other team say that?).  They have gone 0-2 against the Washington Nationals, Swept the San Francisco Giants 4-0, Swept the Los Angeles Angels 2-0, and beat the St Louis Cardinals 2-0 during that stretch.  It has been an avalanche of wins that has helped the Boys in Blue secure a firm grip on first place in the NL West… Neither the San Diego Padres nor the San Francisco Giants look poised enough to make up the difference.   Add to that that the Dodgers are expecting Duffy, May, Graterol, and Heaney (all good pitchers) to return to active duty (after missing extended time on the injury list) all over the next 10 days.  This team could be much tougher and more versatile all throughout August… a scary thought for the entire league.

The Colorado Rockies have won 5 of their last 10 games.  The Rockies are a perpetual mystery because they do have a top-five offense to go along with a bottom-5 pitching staff. It is simply not too foreign for the Rockies to beat teams like the Milwaukee Brewers or San Diego Padres if the offense outscores them… It is also not foreign for the Rockies to lose to teams like the Washington Nationals or Kansas City Royals or Pittsburgh Pirates as the mound gets hammered.  This would seem a real easy off-season fix for the Rockies… Just sign a few quality pitchers and “go all in”... but for some reason the Rockies keep holding on to their self-imposed spending limits… not really trusting that a winning team would translate into winning profits at the turnstiles.  They should… it would.

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The Dodgers are 2nd in scoring with 5.13 runs per game, 5th in batting average with .255, 1st in OBP .333

The Rockies are 10th in scoring with 4.57 runs per game, 2nd in batting average with .261, and 4th in OBP with .325.

The Dodgers pitching is 1st in team ERA with 2.96, 1st in WHIP, and 7th in errors with 41 on the season so far.

The Rockies pitching is 28th in ERA with 4.85 (a formula for losing), 28th in WHIP with 1.43, and 27th in team fielding errors with 65 so far.

 

Our prediction for Sunday July 31st is…  Dodgers 7 - Rockies 3

 

Yes, again… another bet for the Dodgers on the money-line.  According to the algorithm of the Dodgers record, the Dodgers are due for 3-4 more wins before a loss.  Will that absolutely happen?... maybe not… but they will keep beating the Rockies.  You could also throw in a bet on the OVER.  The number is set at 6.5... no doubt due to Gonsolin's 2.26 ERA... yet that seems low for a Dodger's line-up facing German Marquez's 5.25 ERA.  So bet the Dodgers AND the OVER.

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The Dodgers are 231-111 (+26 units) as a road favorite 0f -110 or higher the last 3 seasons.

The Rockies are 920- 1358 (-101.9) as an underdog of +100 or higher since 1997.

Dodgers: LF Chris Taylor (Foot) Out ** 3B Edwin Rios (hamstring) Out

Rockies: LF C Joe (undisclosed) Out ** 

Dodgers: RHP Tony Gonsolin, 11-1, 2.26 ERA, 90 strikeouts in 99 innings pitched.  0.88 WHIP.  Tony is an ACE at the height of his powers.  Yes, the altitude of Coors stadium leads to thin air which allows big hits to soar past the outfield wall.  However, that applies to both clubs.

Rockies: RHP German Marquez, 6-8, 5.25 ERA, 91 strikeouts in 109 innings pitched.  1.43 WHIP.  The 27 year old is a good pitcher.  He is not at Tony Gonsolin’s level… and he will not get enough run support (specifically against the Dodgers scoring average), even though he has a good offensive team.

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, DH Will Smith, 2B Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner,. C Austin Barnes, LF Gavin Lux, CF Cody Bellinger

 

Rockies: RF Charlie Beckman, SS Garrett Hampton, DH Kris Bryant, 1B C.J. Cron, 2B Brendan Rodgers, 3B Ryan McMahon, CF Randal Grichuk, LF Sam Hilliard, C Brian Serven

 

Dodgers: Dave “get me more rings, Mookie” Roberts

Rockies: Bud “when does all this offense mean winning?” Black

Mostly Sunny.  Humidity 29%  90 degrees at the height of the day.  Wind 9 mph.  The heat will cool at sunset… but the humidity will cling.