Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/16/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 8:07 pm ET, Saturday, October 16, 2021
Venue:  Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch:  TBS


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Dodgers -135, Braves +115; Over/Under:  8 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Dodgers NL, Braves NL; Over/Under:  NL runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Dodgers +115, Braves -135; Over/Under:  NL runs

Season Record

Los Angeles Dodgers:  106-56 (2nd place, NL West)
Atlanta Braves:  88-73 (1st place, NL East)
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Los Angeles Dodgers:  8-2 last 10
Atlanta Braves:  8-2 last 10

Los Angeles Dodgers Analysis

The Dodgers are coming into this game after knocking out the San Francisco Giants in the NLDS winning that series 3-2. They won the series finale by a score of 2-1 in that game 5. They are on a 2 game winning streak coming into this series with the Braves. The NLCS is a best-of-seven series, this will be the series opener on Saturday. In that game 5, the Dodgers had more of a bullpen day with Corey Knebel as the opener and Julio Urias pitching a bulk of the innings. Max Scherzer served as the closer in that game. The probable starting pitcher on the mound in this game on Saturday is Tony Gonsolin. He is 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA this season. He has been credited with 3 straight wins and his team has won their last 4 games with him as the starter. In his last start, he allowed 3 ER, 2 of them being homers, and 2 BB with 5 Ks on 4 hits through 4.2 IP against the San Diego Padres back on Thursday, September 30. He has not seen the Braves lineup at all this year in a real game. He has played in 4 games in the postseason in his career, all were last year and he was a starter in 3 of those games and a reliever in 1. He was 0-2 in those games while his team was 2-2 when he pitched. Their offense has scored 18 runs in their last 5 games averaging a little under 4 runs scored per game and they have allowed their opponents to score 10 runs against them in that same span allowing 2 runs per game.

Atlanta Braves Analysis

The Braves are coming into this series after winning their NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers 3-1 in that series, knocking them out of the playoffs. They lost the 1st game of that series but have now won their last 3 games coming into this series. This will be game 1 of the NLCS in a best-of-seven series to see which team will be going to the World Series. Eric Lauer was the starter in their last game on Tuesday and it is likely that Max Fried will be throwing the first pitch in this game on Saturday. He is 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA this season. He has been credited with 8 straight wins and his team has won their last 6 games and 11 of their last 12 when he has been given the nod.  His last start was in game 2 of the NLDS on Oct. 9, he allowed 0 ER and 0 BB with 9 strikeouts on 3 hits through 6 innings of work against the Brewers. He has seen the Dodgers lineup in 2 games this season and he is 1-0 against them with 1 no-decision. His team is 1-1 in the games he pitched in but he did not allow more than 2 runs in either game. He has played in the postseason before and his team has won 4 of their last 5 games with him on the mound going back to last year, including 1 win over the Dodgers but the 1 loss his team suffered in that span was also to the Dodgers. Their offense has scored 12 runs in their last 4 games averaging 3 runs scored per game and they have allowed their opponents to score 6 runs against them in that same span allowing 1.5 runs per game. 


Dodgers vs Braves Prediction

The Braves are coming into this game with more rest as they won their series in 4 games while the Dodgers won their series in 5 games. The Braves had very good pitching in the NLDS as they barely allowed their opponents to score many runs but, their offense was weak as they did not score many runs either, luckily they did not need to. The Dodgers also had very good pitching as they only allowed 4 more runs than the Braves did in their series and the Dodgers played an extra game on top of that. Out of all 4 teams that played in the NLDS, the Dodgers outscored every single team in total throughout the series showcasing their potent offense. The Dodgers are the better team here, they have both the pitching and the hitting to go to the World Series and they are looking to repeat last season. The best bet to place in this game is on the Dodgers to win.
Dodgers Braves Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, October 16, 2021 (8:07 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 5 Braves 1.
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MLB Betting Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers: 109-55 (+15.4 units) on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher. 110-58 (+13.3 units) on the money line in all games. 24-9 (+11.3 units) on the money line against NL East opponents.
Atlanta Braves: 19-25 (-1.6 units) on the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher. 91-74 (-1.9 units) on the money line in all games. 44-38 (-10.6 units) on the money line in home games. 15-16 (-4.2 units) on the money line against NL West opponents.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles Dodgers:  D. Duffy (SP) Late Oct - Hip injury. M. Muncy (1B) Late Oct - Elbow injury. C. Kershaw (SP) out for season - Elbow injury.
Atlanta Braves:  J. Soler (RF) Out indefinitely - Illness. G. Dayton (RP) Late Oct - Shoulder injury. T. Davidson (RP) Late Oct - Forearm injury.

Players to Watch

Los Angeles Dodgers: Trea Turner is one player to watch in this matchup. He led the team in batting average, hits and in stolen bases during the regular season. He has been quiet recently but he is very dangerous when he gets on base so look for him to make some good hits and get on base to score some runs here.
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman is one player to watch in this contest. He leads his team in hits and he will need to spark this offense if his team is going to beat the Dodgers. The Dodgers have some good batters so look for him to get some hits in this game and try to spark his team’s offense to do more here than just rely on good pitching.

Notable Quotes

"We poured everything we could into this series and it took everything we had to beat these guys." - Dave Roberts on his team advancing to the NLCS.
"I don't know that this team has been dependent, as we've shown, on one guy all year, quite honestly. The guys keep playing the game. Would you like to have him? Yeah. If we don't, so be it. Just go out and win however else we can." - Brian Snitker on missing Jorge Soler due to covid-19.

Starting Lineups

Los Angeles Dodgers
M. Betts RF
C. Seager SS
T. Turner 2B
W. Smith C
J. Turner 3B
G. Lux CF
C. Bellinger 1B
C. Taylor LF
C. Knebel P
Atlanta Braves
D. Swanson SS
F. Freeman 1B
O. Albies 2B
A. Riley 3B
A. Duvall LF
J. Pederson RF
T. d'Arnaud C
G. Heredia CF
C. Morton P

Statistical Leaders

Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average:  T. Turner (.328)
Hits:  T. Turner (195)
Home Runs:  M. Muncy (36)
RBI:  M. Muncy (94)
Stolen Bases:  T. Turner (32)
Wins:  J. Urias (20)
Saves:  K. Jansen (38)
ERA:  J. Nelson (1.86)
Atlanta Braves
Batting Average:  A. Riley (.303)
Hits:  F. Freeman (180)
Home Runs:  A. Duvall (38)
RBI:  A. Duvall (113)
Stolen Bases:  O. Albies (20)
Wins:  C. Morton (14)
Saves:  W. Smith (37)
ERA:  L. Jackson (1.98)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (6th season)
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (6th season)

Weather Forecast

63 degrees F partly cloudy, 67% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 16 mph wind speeds SE.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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