Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: Game 6 Odds, Picks and Preview - 10/23/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Friday, Oct 22, 2021
Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: TBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Dodgers -170, Braves +150
BetMGM: Dodgers -177, Braves +150
Caesars: Dodgers -177, Braves +162

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Dodgers - Braves preview and analysis


Game 6, National League Championship Series -- Braves lead 3-2

Alright, so you know how we said the other day that it was over?

Thanks, Chris Taylor. Something tells us we won't be allowed in Dodger Stadium any time soon.

Never before in the history of postseason baseball has someone hit three home runs for a team facing elimination. Until Taylor became the hero of the playoffs.

His three home runs, playing in relief of the injured Justin Turner at third base, coupled with two homers from AJ Pollock, have given the Los Angeles Dodgers new life in the NLCS after an 11-2 win in Game 5 against the Atlanta Braves on Thursday.

The Braves lead the series 3-2 and still control their own destiny, especially with the series coming back to Atlanta for Game 6 on Saturday.

And yes, I still firmly believe that it's over and the Braves are going to the World Series. It's just taking a little while longer than usual.

But kudos to the Dodgers for making this as competitive a series as they can. In the do-or-die game, the Dodgers rocked Braves starting pitcher Max Fried for five runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings. Los Angeles finished the night with 17 hits while holding the Braves to only five hits.

Freddie Freeman got the festivities started with a two-run homer in the top of the first. The good times ended there.

Pollock hit the first of two homers in the bottom of the second, and then Taylor hit the first of his three shortly after, a two-run shot to give the Dodgers a lead they never relinquished.

“Maybe the three home runs today might have spiked his adrenaline, but probably not,” said Pollock about his teammate. “Most likely just the beer and watching surfing.”

Beer or not, the Dodgers found a way yet again to laugh in the face of defeat. The NL Wild Card game saw the Dodgers go all the way to the final at-bat from, of course, Taylor's walk-off shot. L.A. trailed 2-1 in the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants.

Now, trailing 3-2 to the Braves in the NLCS for the second straight year, the Dodgers would like to think Thursday wasn't the last game in Dodger Stadium this year. Forty-five teams that have won Game 5 trailing 3-1 in a best-of-7; 20 of them have come back from a series deficit to force a Game 7, with 14 of them winning the series.

“I guess when our backs are against the wall, we play our best and fight,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. “But that’s just not an ideal spot to be in, even right now, elimination game in Game 6, but I guess it brings out the best in us.”

The big bats came out to play when the Dodgers needed it after only four hits in Game 4. Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger joined Pollock with three hits on the night, while Taylor one-upped Braves left fielder Eddie Rosario with a 4-for-5 night with his three homers and four RBIs. The only Dodgers player to not register a hit in the starting nine was catcher Will Smith (0-for-4).

This series hasn't made a lick of sense, going from three one-run games featuring two walk offs, to consecutive blow outs that have flipped the script in ways we haven't seen. But the fact of the matter is the Braves still hold a 3-2 lead and one more win will propel them to a World Series appearance for the first time since 1999.

This isn't like the bubble last postseason that saw the Dodgers roar back in a neutral site. The Braves will have the power of a home crowd behind them, a fan base starving to get back to the World Series for a team that many didn't expect to be in this position.

“That’s going to be the narrative,” Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman said. “Every day it’s brought up. So I don’t think we have a choice until we kill that narrative. We’re up 3-2 going home. It’s a great position to be in.”

The Dodgers will return to the heart of their rotation on Saturday with Max Scherzer taking the mound against Braves ace Ian Anderson.

Prediction


I understand Braves fans should feel uneasy about another collapse with a sports team. Remember 28-3? It's possible. But the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again, yada yada. I'm taking the Braves until the Dodgers show they can win on the road. That raucous environment is going to make things really interesting, and I still haven't seen enough from the Dodgers starters to believe they can do this two more times. Braves win 6-5

Betting trends


The Dodgers are 87-37 this season as a favorite of -150 or more.

The Dodgers are 52-19 (+19.3 net games on the moneyline) in games following two straight home games.

Teams are 6-2 in playoff games when Scherzer starts the past three seasons.

The Braves are 62-29 (+27.8 net games) after scoring two runs or less the previous game.

The Braves are 5-1 in October when Anderson starts.

Key injuries


Dodgers: 3B Justin Turner (hamstring, out), 1B Max Muncy (elbow, out)

Braves: None

Projected lineup


Dodgers:
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Trea Turner (R) 2B
Corey Seager (L) SS
Will Smith (R) C
AJ Pollock (R) LF
Albert Pujols (R) 1B
Chris Taylor (R) 3B
Cody Bellinger (L) CF
Max Scherzer (R) P

Braves:
Eddie Rosario (L) LF
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Adam Duvall (R) CF
Joc Pederson (L) RF
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Ian Anderson (R) P

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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