by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 10, 2023
Game Time: 9:07 pm ET, Wednesday, October 11, 2023
Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Where to Watch: TBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -148, D-Backs +124; Over/Under: 9.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -145, D-Backs +125; Over/Under: 9.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Dodgers -150, D-Backs +125; Over/Under: 9.5 runs
Season Record
Los Angeles Dodgers: 100-62 (1st place, NL West)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 (2nd place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Dodgers: 5-5 last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks: 6-4 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview and Analysis
The Dodgers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 100-62 record overall and had a road record of 47-34. This is the 3rd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Diamondbacks on Wednesday for the NL Division Series and they lost game 1 and game 2 of this series on Saturday and Monday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .795 OPS. Rookie pitcher Bobby Miller was their starting pitcher on Monday while Lance Lynn is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 13-11 with a 5.73 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 4 BB with 4 strikeouts on 2 hits through 6 innings played against the San Francisco Giants.
The Diamondbacks are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their best 2 out of 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 in the NL Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with an 84-78 record overall and had a home record of 43-38. This is the 3rd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the LA Dodgers on Wednesday for the NL Division Series and they won game 1 and game 2 of this series on Saturday and Monday. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Zac Gallen was their starting pitcher on Monday while rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 4 Ks on 7 hits through 2.2 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dodgers listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dodgers really dropped the ball in this series as they have already lost both home games and are now on the brink of elimination in this game. They trail 2-0 in the series but they know they have to win both games in Arizona and they will be throwing everything they have at them here. This is still one of the best teams in the MLB with one of the best records overall and one of the best offenses. The Diamondbacks haven't had a good pitching staff all season and the Dodgers can take advantage of that here with their bats. Pfaadt played well in his 1st playoff start but the Brewers also have one of the worst offenses in the league and he is still only in his rookie year. Lance Lynn has also been a lot better on the mound since coming to the Dodgers and this will be the game where the Dodgers offense finally wakes up with their backs against the wall. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dodgers to win this game and cut the series lead to 2-1 for the Diamondbacks.
Dodgers Diamondbacks Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, October 11, 2023 (9:07 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 8 Diamondbacks 4.
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MLB Betting Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers: 13-17 (-12.2 units) on the moneyline as a road favorite of -125 to -175. 18-17 (-5.5 units) on the moneyline on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5. 36-22 OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5. 51-26 OVER in road games. 25-12 OVER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 88-78 (+12.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 43-46 (+10.8 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 35-26 OVER when playing with a day off. 23-17 OVER after 4 or more consecutive road games.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Dodgers: B. Treinen (RP) Mid Oct - Shoulder. D. Hudson (RP) Mid Oct - Knee. T. Cyr (RP) Mid Oct - Shoulder. J. Marisnick (CF) Mid Oct - Hamstring. G. Varland (SP) out for season - Knee. W. Buehler (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Urias (SP) Out indefinitely - Personal. T. Gonsolin (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Feyereisen (RP) out for season - Shoulder. D. May (SP) out for season - Elbow. A. Reyes (SP) out for season - Shoulder. G. Lux (2B) out for season - Knee.
Arizona Diamondbacks: E. Longoria (3B) Ques Wed - Hand. J. McCarthy (RF) Out indefinitely - Oblique. M. Melancon (RP) out for season - Shoulder. T. Henry (SP) out for season - Elbow. D. Jameson (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Fletcher (RF) out for season - Finger. A. Adams (RP) out for season - Ankle. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“It’s two games, but our backs are against the wall. We’ve got to make some type of adjustments and we have no more margin.” - Dave Roberts after his team’s loss against the Diamondbacks in game 2 of this series on Monday.
“These guys are very hungry and they feel like they have a lot to prove.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the LA Dodgers in game 2 of this series on Monday.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts (R) 2B
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
Max Muncy (L) 3B
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
Jason Heyward (L) RF
David Peralta (L) LF
James Outman (L) CF
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll (L) RF
Ketel Marte (S) 2B
Tommy Pham (R) DH
Christian Walker (R) 1B
Gabriel Moreno (R) C
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF
Alek Thomas (L) CF
Evan Longoria (R) 3B
Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Jake Marisnick (.400)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (211)
Home Runs: Mookie Betts (39)
RBI: Mookie Betts (107)
Stolen Bases: Freddie Freeman (23)
Wins: Clayton Kershaw (13)
Saves: Evan Phillips (24)
ERA: Tyler Cyr (0.00)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Batting Average: Seby Zavala (.357)
Hits: Corbin Carroll (161)
Home Runs: Christian Walker (33)
RBI: Christian Walker (103)
Stolen Bases: Corbin Carroll (54)
Wins: Zac Gallen (17)
Saves: Paul Sewald (13)
ERA: Peter Strzelecki (0.00)
Managers:
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (8th season)
Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
