by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Jan 06, 2026
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, January 11, 2026
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: NBC, Peacock
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Chargers +3.5, Patriots -3.5; Over/Under: 46.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Chargers +3.5, Patriots -3.5; Over/Under: 46 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Chargers +3.5, Patriots -3.5; Over/Under: 46 points
Season Record
Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6 (2nd place, AFC West)
New England Patriots: 14-3 (1st place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Los Angeles Chargers: lost their last game on the road against the Denver Broncos 19-3.
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the Miami Dolphins 38-10.
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Chargers are entering this game with an 11-6 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Denver Broncos 19-3. Trey Lance was the starting QB and he completed 20/44 passes for 136 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Trey Lance led the team in rushing yards with 69. Keenan Allen led the receivers with 36 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Tony Jefferson led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Justin Eboigbe led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 14-3 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-3 in their home games, 8-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Miami Dolphins 38-10. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 14/18 passes for 191 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 131 and 2 TDs. Hunter Henry led the receivers with 56 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Christian Elliss led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Christian Barmore, Marcus Jones, K'Lavon Chaisson, and Elijah Ponder each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jaylinn Hawkins came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Chargers vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked great in their games this season with their 14-3 record overall which had them right at the top of the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They have looked good on their home field too with their 6-3 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers have looked good in their games this season with their 11-6 record overall which had them right near the top of the AFC West. They have been a good road team too with their 5-3 road record this year. The Chargers are off a 19-3 loss to the Broncos in what was a meaningless game for them, but this is a team that has had a lot of playoff struggles in recent years and is now going into the playoffs with 2 losses in a row. They looked great in the final weeks of the regular season as they were finding ways to win games, even with all of their injuries, but those injuries are going to catch up to them in the playoffs. The Patriots are off a 38-10 win over the Dolphins in their last one and they have been rolling in their games lately with 3 wins in a row now. They have improved a ton since the start of the season, and lately they have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL. Drake Maye has been playing at a really high level all season and this high powered offense is going to cause a lot of problems for the Chargers on defense. The Chargers are running into one of the hottest teams in the NFL this year and even if they get an early jump in this game, they will find a way to choke it away like they usually do in the playoffs. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Chargers Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Saturday, January 11, 2026 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 34 Chargers 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
Los Angeles Chargers: 5-2 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points. 21-15 ATS in games played on turf. 4-2 ATS against AFC East division opponents. 6-1 OVER after a loss by 14 or more points. 6-3 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att.
New England Patriots: 1-4 ATS against AFC West division opponents. 8-14 ATS in home games. 3-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 4-1 OVER after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 7-1 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Chargers: D. Phillips (LB) Questionable - Hamstring. E. Molden (CB) Out - Hamstring. K. Mack (LB) Injured - NIR - Rest. B. Bozeman (C) Questionable - Concussion. D. James Jr. (S) Injured - NIR - Rest. B. St-Juste (CB) Questionable - Shoulder. J. Herbert (QB) Injured - Hand. J. Salyer (OG) Doubtful - Hamstring. H. Haskins (RB) Questionable - Concussion. D. Davis (WR) Injured - Ankle. T. Tuipulotu (LB) Injured - NIR - Rest. K. Vidal (RB) Questionable - Neck. N. Reed (CB) Out - Hamstring. R. Mickens (S) Questionable - Shoulder. K. Allen (WR) Injured - NIR - Rest. O. Hampton (RB) Out - Ankle.
New England Patriots: S. Diggs (WR) Injured - NIR-Rest. C. Woods (CB) Questionable - Foot. H. Henry (TE) Injured - Knee. M. Moses (OT) Injured - NIR - Rest. H. Landry III (LB) Out - Knee. R. Spillane (LB) Out - Ankle. K. Tonga (DL) Out - Foot. K. Chaisson (LB) Injured - Illness. M. Williams (DL) Injured - Ankle. T. Munford Jr. (OT) Injured - Illness. C. Barmore (DL) Injured - Illness. A. Austin (CB) Injured - Wrist. D. Douglas (WR) Injured - Hamstring. K. Boutte (WR) Injured - Concussion. J. Westover (FB) Questionable - Ankle. J. Wilson (C) Out - Concussion. W. Campbell (OT) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“Yeah, New England. Focus on New England. That’s where our focus will be.” - Jim Harbaugh after his team’s loss against the Broncos in their last game.
“Get the right guys in the building at the right time. And good quarterback play. Figured out how to not beat ourselves and play to an identity. And guys make plays. That’s what happens.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s win against the Dolphins in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Chargers
WR Johnston, Quentin
WR Allen, Keenan
WR McConkey, Ladd
TE Gadsden, Oronde
QB Herbert, Justin
RB Vidal, Kimani
FB Matlock, Scott
New England Patriots
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Diggs, Stefon
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Henderson, TreVeyon
FB Westover, Jack
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Chargers
Passing: Justin Herbert (3,727)
Rushing: Kimani Vidal (643)
Receiving: Ladd McConkey (789)
Touchdowns: Quentin Johnston (8)
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (4,394)
Rushing: TreVeyon Henderson (911)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (1,013)
Touchdowns: TreVeyon Henderson (10)
Coaches:
Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh (2nd season)
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
