Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: AFC Wild Card Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 1/14/2023

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL

Where to watch: NBC

DraftKings: Chargers -1.5; Chargers -125, Jaguars +105; O/U 47

FanDuel: Chargers -1.5; Chargers -122, Jaguars +104; O/U 47

BetMGM: Chargers -1.5; Chargers -120, Jaguars +100; O/U 47

Caesars: Chargers -1; Chargers -120, Jaguars +100; O/U 47

Chargers: 10-7 (No. 5 seed in AFC)

Jaguars: 9-8 (No. 4 seed in AFC, clinched AFC South)

Wild Card Weekend is upon us, and it’s time to lay the big bucks on the best teams of the season. What a slate of games we have this weekend, and you know our champion handicappers are coming in hot with the games this weekend. Especially with how they closed the last month, a lot is riding on this. Al McMordie closed the final four weeks at 18-10-1, and Hollywood Sports also had a good run of form with a 21-14-1 mark in that run. Even Jim Feist finished with regular season with a 9-5 run the last two weeks. This is the action you want to get on. Make sure you hop over to bigal.com and check out our Best Bets page to see what our champion handicappers are cooking up for the postseason!

Chargers: lost 31-28 at Broncos

Jaguars: won 20-16 vs. Titans

Do you want to know what the best part about the NFL postseason is? Once in a blue moon, you’re going to get a matchup that’s new, fresh, and showcases young talent that maybe we’re not focused on every Sunday.

 

And as the playoffs get underway Saturday, we have that very matchup in the 4-5 battle in the AFC when the Los Angeles Chargers take on the Jacksonville Jaguars with a battle between two of the best young quarterbacks making their postseason debut in primetime. That’s something you can’t beat.

 

This is going to be the most intriguing matchup of Wildcard Weekend because whichever team wins, there’s going to be a hint — albeit a small one — where people start asking if the winning quarterback could go on a magical run of sorts. That’s the kind of pressure, and expectation, that Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence have put forth in this league already and what can be expected.

 

But what we can also garner from this is you wonder why certain teams act the way they are, and you also see the flaws in inexperienced coaching. Of course, I’m talking about Chargers coach Brandon Staley playing his starters in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Denver Broncos, a game in which they lost 31-28, and lost wide receiver Mike Willilams and star pass rusher Joey Bosa due to injury.

 

The lasting image of Williams getting helped to the cart and Bosa standing on the sidelines does not bode well for the Chargers, who knew they were going on the road and likely knew they were facing Jacksonville in this game.

 

“These aren’t easy decisions,” Staley said. “And hindsight is perfect for everybody on the outside. But these games are not easy to manage. They’re not. Because you don’t have that many players. We did it to the best of our ability.”

 

Sure, I get that, but why risk that? Why risk any chance to have your franchise quarterback struggle in his first playoff game? Things like that make no sense. Why is Herbert throwing 37 times in a meaningless game? Why is Keenan Allen catching eight passes for 102 yards and two touchdowns? And why are the Chargers suddenly looking like garbage against the Denver Broncos and allowing Russell Wilson to throw for more touchdowns than he has bathrooms in his house?

 

The Chargers were getting six points because the books didn’t expect the starters to play, and they still barely covered. Los Angeles capped the regular season going 4-0-1 against the spread and 7-2-1 in their last 10.

 

But the Chargers will be facing the hottest team entering the postseason in the Jaguars, who started the year 2-6 and went on a 5-1 run to win the AFC South and make it to the playoffs after back-to-back 14-loss seasons. The true impact of Doug Pederson, and the moves they have made to put Jacksonville in this position, is truly remarkable.

 

The Jags are coming off a 20-16 win over the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South championship game on Saturday night. A game that was not defined by Lawrence’s star-studded production (20 of 32, 212 yards, 1 touchdown), it was the Jacksonville defense that made the plays at the right time with Josh Allen recovering a fumble late for the go-ahead touchdown.

 

“This was one of those games where our defense had to win it for us,” Lawrence said. “Us guys on offense, we’re a little frustrated because we left a lot out there. But in these games, just win. Our defense picked us up today. They played great.”

 

The Jaguars were 6-point favorites going into this game and it was the only time in the last five they failed to cover. Talk about that kind of run to close the year, it’s pretty incredible.

 

Despite likely not having Williams and Bosa’s status in the air, the Chargers are laying as high as 1.5 as the books open.

 

This isn’t to say Herbert is a comparable to Joshua Dobbs, but the Chargers quarterback is going to face a tough test in the Jacksonville defense. They were able to dominate the line of scrimmage in the Week 3 matchup that Jacksonville won 38-10 in SoFi Stadium. A lot has changed since then, but this result won’t be any different. At home, with the crowd, don’t underestimate a team looking to change the narrative. Jaguars 31, Chargers 24

Chargers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in Jacksonville, 9-1 ATS in the last 10 overall.

The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.

Under is 5-1 in the Jaguars’ last six January games.

Passing: Justin Herbert – 4,739 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT

Rushing: Austin Ekeler – 915 yards, 13 TD

Receiving: Mike Williams – 895 yards, 4 TD

Defense: Khalil Mack – 8 sacks

Passing: Trevor Lawrence – 4,113 yards, 25 TD, 8 INT

Rushing: Travis Etienne – 1,125 yards, 5 TD

Receiving: Christian Kirk – 1,108 yards, 8 TD

Defense: Foyesade Oluokun – 184 tackles