by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Sep 27, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Chargers -5
FanDuel: Chargers -5.5
BetMGM: Chargers -5
Caesars: Chargers -5
Season record
Chargers: 1-2
Texans: 0-1-2
Are you not entertained by the NFL season one month in? What action we've had, and we're already down to the point where the 1972 Miami Dolphins can start popping champagne. Only three undefeated teams remain heading into the Monday Night matchup and there were upsets galore this past weekend. And of course, nothing was more electric than our own Wayne Root going 8-2-0 in the NFL this past weekend. So many upsets, so many big covers and backdoor covers, what in the world will Week 4 hold? Make sure you're following Wayne and our other champion handicappers to find out what we're rolling with so you may get on the action. You can find all of this on our Best Bets page.
Chargers - Texans preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Chargers: lost 38-10 vs. Jaguars
Texans: lost 23-20 at Bears
If it were at all possible for the Los Angeles Chargers to be the worst team in the AFC West, there would be a chance for that to be possible had it not been for the Las Vegas Raiders to be a thing. Alas, we are here and the Chargers are 1-2 after one of the more shocking results this past week, a 38-10 loss to the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars … which by the way, we absolutely called that pick last week. If you’re not checking out the rest of our previews at bigal.com, you’re missing out on some concrete analysis. The Chargers have not looked good to start the year, and it has everything to do with injuries to some key players. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out with a hamstring injury, but coach Brandon Staley feels he will be able to practice this week. Free agent prize corner J.C. Jackson is recovering from ankle surgery and is dealing with some inflammation in that surgically repaired ankle. He’s likely going to miss another week for the Chargers. And now Joey Bosa might be hurt after hurting his groin on Sunday. Right now, he's currently listed as doubtful. So yes, the cracked ribs on quarterback Justin Herbert are 100% the least of the Chargers’ concerns right now. Herbert threw for 297 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Sony Michel was the leading rusher with just five carries for 22 yards.
If it were at all possible for the Los Angeles Chargers to be the worst team in the AFC West, there would be a chance for that to be possible had it not been for the Las Vegas Raiders to be a thing. Alas, we are here and the Chargers are 1-2 after one of the more shocking results this past week, a 38-10 loss to the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars … which by the way, we absolutely called that pick last week. If you’re not checking out the rest of our previews at bigal.com, you’re missing out on some concrete analysis. The Chargers have not looked good to start the year, and it has everything to do with injuries to some key players. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out with a hamstring injury, but coach Brandon Staley feels he will be able to practice this week. Free agent prize corner J.C. Jackson is recovering from ankle surgery and is dealing with some inflammation in that surgically repaired ankle. He’s likely going to miss another week for the Chargers. And now Joey Bosa might be hurt after hurting his groin on Sunday. Right now, he's currently listed as doubtful. So yes, the cracked ribs on quarterback Justin Herbert are 100% the least of the Chargers’ concerns right now. Herbert threw for 297 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Sony Michel was the leading rusher with just five carries for 22 yards.
"We just didn't move the ball as well as we would have liked. Failed to convert on some third downs, didn't get the ball moving in the first half and just had to play catch-up," Herbert said.
For all the talk of how the Raiders can’t afford to fall behind in the AFC West, the Chargers certainly can’t either given the current start to this division. The Raiders are winless, and the Broncos and Chiefs are both 2-1. Somehow, everything is wide open and no team has taken over yet. A lot can change in some time, but the Chargers are absolutely not out of this yet. A win against a lowly Houston team may be what the doctor ordered.
The Houston Texans return home for the first time since their Week 1 tie against Indianapolis, and honestly, the Texans have played well enough in all three games to earn the right to at least two wins. Given the current status of the Texans, that actually seems like something to cheer about. But Houston went down to the wire with the Chicago Bears before ultimately losing 23-20 thanks to a late Roquan Smith interception. Davis Mills threw two of those while getting 245 yards and a touchdown, but the poor man can’t really do much outside of that.
"We talk about it a lot: Tip balls never touch the ground," he said. "Got through my progression, made the correct read, had Rex [Burkhead] open and just, the ball got tipped at the line. Nothing I can really do about it there. Good play by the defense."
The Texans are not doing anything noteworthy until quarterbacks hit the draft next year and they’ll have their pick of them. Right now, it’s about staying competitive, but Sunday might be a test they can’t handle too well.
Prediction
The Chargers need a win badly and while I think the Texans should be commended for what they’ve done to this point, I can’t help but think Los Angeles will win this game going away. The Chargers are giving 5 and I think that will be a good enough number to take a chance on. Chargers by 7
Betting trends
Chargers are 9-7 ATS in their last 16 road games.
Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a double-digit loss as a favorite by 6 or more.
Chargers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 after a loss by 10 or more as a home favorite.
Texans are 8-6 ATS as a home underdog in their last 14.
Texans are 9-9 ATS at home in their last 18.
Statistical leaders
Chargers:
Passing: Justin Herbert -- 910 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Austin Ekeler -- 80 yards,
Receiving: DeAndre Carter -- 150 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Khalil Mack -- 4 sacks
Texans:
Passing: Davis Mills -- 662 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Dameon Pierce -- 182 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Brandin Cooks -- 158 yards
Defense: Jerry Hughes -- 4 sacks
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Los Angeles Chargers - Houston Texans prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
