by Rod Pearson
Saturday, Dec 30, 2023
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, December 31, 2023
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Chargers +3.5, Broncos -3.5; Over/Under: 37 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Chargers +3.5, Broncos -3.5; Over/Under: 36.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Chargers +3.5, Broncos -3.5; Over/Under: 36.5 points
Season Record
Los Angeles Chargers: 5-10 (4th place, AFC West)
Denver Broncos: 7-8 (3rd place, AFC West)
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Los Angeles Chargers: lost their last game at home against the Buffalo Bills 24-22.
Denver Broncos: lost their last game at home against the New England Patriots 26-23.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Preview and Analysis
The Chargers are entering this game with a 5-10 record overall and they have a 1-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-6 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Buffalo Bills 24-22. Easton Stick was the starting QB and he completed 23/33 passes for 215 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Austin Ekeler led the team in rushing yards with 65. Joshua Palmer led the receivers with 47 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Derwin James Jr. led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Tuli Tuipulotu and Eric Kendricks each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Alohi Gilman came away with the only interception for them in that game.
The Broncos are entering this game with a 7-8 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-4 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the New England Patriots 26-23. Russell Wilson was the starting QB and he completed 25/33 passes for 256 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jaleel McLaughlin led the team in rushing yards with 37. Marvin Mims Jr. led the receivers with 63 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Alex Singleton led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Jonathon Cooper and D.J. Jones each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Chargers vs Broncos Prediction
The current betting odds have the Broncos listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Broncos haven't looked great in their games this season with their 7-8 record overall but they are still alive to make the playoffs and have something to play for here. They had one of the worst starts to the NFL this season and ended up going on a huge run to get into this position before stumbling in their last few games again. Now they are benching Russell Wilson but there is still a lot of talent on this team for Stidham to work with and they have a solid coach to get them over the line. Meanwhile, the Chargers have looked terrible this season with their 5-10 record overall and they were losing a lot of games when their team was healthy. Now they have a lot of their starters out with injuries and as good as they looked last week against the Bills, now they are on the road in the altitude against the Broncos who still need to win this game and the Chargers are going to get a very desperate effort from the Broncos at home. This is also going to be a very tough start on the road for Easton Stick to make and the Broncos defense which has been playing a lot better lately will be all over him. The best way to place a bet here is on the Broncos to cover the spread in this game.
Chargers Broncos Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 31, 2023 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Broncos 17 Chargers 6.
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NFL Betting Trends
Los Angeles Chargers: 8-4 ATS as a road underdog. 25-13 ATS off a cover where the team lost as an underdog. 29-16 ATS revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a favorite. 9-5 UNDER in all games. 6-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 7 points or less.
Denver Broncos: 5-9 ATS in all games. 6-12 ATS as a home favorite. 2-10 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. 31-18 UNDER in all games. 14-7 UNDER after playing a game at home.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Chargers: T. Pipkins III (OT) Prob Sun - Wrist. N. Williams (DL) Doub Sun - Shoulder. T. Muse (LB) Doub Sun - Knee. K. Murray Jr. (LB) Doub Sun - Shoulder. J. Bosa (LB) Out Sun - Foot. J. Palmer (WR) Out Sun - Concussion. K. Allen (WR) Out Sun - Heel. N. Vannett (TE) Ques Sun - Back. D. Leonard (DB) Ques Sun - Ankle. D. Parham Jr. (TE) Ques Sun - Shoulder. W. Clapp (C) I-R - Knee. J. Herbert (QB) I-R - Finger. Z. Bailey (OT) Out indefinitely - Back. C. Rumph II (LB) Out indefinitely - Foot. M. Williams (WR) I-R - Knee. R. Layne (S) Out indefinitely - Knee. C. Linsley (C) Out indefinitely - Illness.
Denver Broncos: J. Jeudy (WR) Ques Sun - Illness. N. Bonitto (LB) Prob Sun - Knee. P. Surtain II (CB) Prob Sun - Concussion. J. Simmons (S) Prob Sun - Illness. A. Palczewski (OT) Out Sun - Hand. G. Dulcich (TE) Out Sun - Hamstring. B. Browning (LB) Out Sun - Concussion. C. Sutton (WR) Out Sun - Concussion. M. Mims Jr. (WR) Ques Sun - Hamstring. D. Washington (RB) Ques Sun - Illness. R. Wilson (QB) Out Sun - Coach's Decision. E. Uwazurike (DL) out for season - Suspension. K. Williams (CB) I-R - Ankle. C. Sterns (S) I-R - Knee. J. Virgil (WR) I-R - Knee. J. Griffith (LB) I-R - Knee. T. Patrick (WR) I-R - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“I think we went into this game thinking it was going to be a heavyweight fight, and we wanted to have a chance at the end for a knockout. We were going to play it a little close to the vest. Get points on the board and give ourself a chance to win, and that’s the way it went. Came up a little bit short.” - Giff Smith after his team’s loss against the Bills in their last game.
“Our margin for error right now isn't what it needs to be.” - Sean Payton after his team’s loss against the Patriots in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Chargers
WR Johnston, Quentin
WR Palmer, Joshua
WR Allen, Keenan
TE Everett, Gerald
QB Stick, Easton
RB Ekeler, Austin
Denver Broncos
WR Sutton, Courtland
WR Mims Jr., Marvin
WR Jeudy, Jerry
TE Trautman, Adam
QB Stidham, Jarrett
RB Williams, Javonte
FB Burton, Michael
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Chargers
Passing: J. Herbert (3134)
Rushing: A. Ekeler (571)
Receiving: K. Allen (1243)
Touchdowns: K. Allen (7)
Denver Broncos
Passing: R. Wilson (3070)
Rushing: J. Williams (701)
Receiving: C. Sutton (770)
Touchdowns: C. Sutton (10)
Coaches:
Los Angeles Chargers: Giff Smith (Interim)
Denver Broncos: Sean Payton (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
