Game Time:  1:00  pm ET,  Sunday, October 9th, 2021

Venue:  FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio

Where to Watch:  CBS

 

BetMGM:  Spread: Chargers -2.5, Browns +2.5; 47.5

Caesars: Spread:  Chargers -2.5, Browns +2.5; 47.5

FanDuel: Spread: Chargers -2.5, Browns +2.5; 47.5

 

 

Chargers: 2-2, 2nd place AFC West

Browns: 2-2, tied for 1st AFC North

An AFC battle of a visiting MASH unit and a team awaiting the return of a creepy quarterback.  It’s strange times we live in where these perennial underachievers are touted as contenders except they open their seasons missing key guys and immediately start with mediocre results.  The Chargers are very very lucky to be 2-2.  Their star quarterback Justin Herbert has been contending with rib cartilage troubles… ya know that totally un-painful type of thing.  The Cleveland Browns signed a quarterback of such immense talent that many teams wanted him even after he had dozens of sexual assault accusations and dozens of accusations of  sexual inappropriateness… all from 60 some odd massage therapists over a brief NFL career.  That guy is so great no one in the league cares much if he is a scumbag.  The Chargers are also missing their best defensive stud in LB Joey Bosa to a groin injury… while the Browns had been missing their best (and maybe the league’s best) edge rusher in Miles Garrett who was in an intense roll over car accident that caused some shoulder injury.  The short answer is we do not know if these teams are great and simply need health… or if these teams are mediocre and would lose (most likely from bad coaching) even if they had everyone available?  Let’s check the numbers and scan that injury report for where to put our money.

The Los Angeles Chargers have been much maligned while being much praised.  They are a team of destiny as they have been year after year after year… with them finishing just outside of the playoffs or below expectations every time.  The reason they are always praised and always hyped is that the roster is very very good and has been for years. They have had quarterbacks they didn’t deserve like Phillip Rivers and Drew Brees… they passed on Drew Brees for Rivers and both would have been great options.  Currently they have Juston Herbert who may have the best arm and attitude of any young quarterback not playing for the Buffalo Bills.  This was supposed to be the year (have you ever heard that before?)... but it is not yet happening.  The team does have badass talent like RB Austin Ekeler, WR Mike Williams, and LB Khalil Mack… That needs to translate to wins and it needs to do it soon.

The Cleveland Browns are intent on place holding until Week 12 when their star QB can return to the field after an 11 week suspension.  Yes, the suspension should have been for life… but football is big business and wins are more important than your sister or daughter or friend or… well you know. The Browns problem is equal to the Chargers problem… The injury list is loaded with talent and the QB they are waiting for is the only actual creepy QB on the roster. To remember how everything is going in Cleveland… This team lost to the Jets and the Falcons… that is a real statement in 2022.  They also only beat the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Carolina Panthers… meaning this team has done nothing but slumming so far and are only .500 to show for it.  No team is in a more “win now” situation than the Browns as after this they get the Patriots, the Ravens, The Bengals, the Dolphins, and the Bills.  They could find themselves 2-76 if they aren’t careful… and then who cares when they take the Silence of The lambs mask off of Deshaun Watson?

 

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RECENT FORM

LAC: 2-2, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U, 1-1 on the road.

CLE: 2-2, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U, 1-1 at home.

The Chargers came out of Week 4 12th in scoring with 23 points per game, 9th in total yards with 371.8 per game, 1st in passing yards with 307.2 per game, and 32nd in rushing yards with 64.5 per game.  This team desperately needs the rushing game to wake up!  They can pass almost at will, but they can’t sell the defense on anything but they will be passing. Is there no one on the roster who can simply take a few handoffs for a few first downs?

The Browns came out of Week 4 6th in scoring with 26.2 points per game, 6th in total yards with 384.8 per game, 25th in passing yards with 197.5 per game, and 2nd in rushing yards with 187.2 per game.  This team can not pass but can run behind the exceptional talent of RB Nick Chubb… and the other guy Kareem Hunt.

 

The Chargers defense came out of Week 4 20th in defense of total yards with 349.5 yards per game, 17th in defense of passing yards with 239.8 per game, 15th in defense of passing yards with 109.8 per game, and 30th (30th !!!) in defense of points with 27 per game.  Chargers wins are about more offense and not a tight defense.

The Browns defense came out of Week 4 9th in defense of total yards with 326 per game allowed, 12th in passing yards with 212.8 per game, 18th in rushing yards with 113.3 per game, and 19th in defense of points by allowing 23.8 per game.

Our prediction for Sunday, October 9th is… Browns 21 - Chargers 20

The Browns defense is pretty good.. While the Chargers are still suffering from Herbert’s rib injury.  If the Browns know to simply run, run , run the ball before passing the Chargers into obscurity they will easily cover the very small spread by winning.  The one thing we do know about the Chargers is that they can’t stop scoring.  Win or lose the other team scores.

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The Chargers are a coin flip 11-11 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

The Browns are 0-9 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons.

 

Chargers: LB J Bosa Out ** Wr Keenan Allen is listed as Doubtful ** 

Browns: DE J Clowney Out ** CB G Williams Out ** QB D Watson (perv) OUT

Chargers: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Nick Chubb, WR Amari Cooper, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, TE David Njoku, TE Harrison Bryant, LT Jedrick Wills Jr, LG Joel Botonio, C Ethan Pocic, RG Wyatt Teller, RT Jack Conklin

 

Browns: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Nick Chubb, WR Amari Cooper, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR David Bell, TE David Njoku, LT Jedrick Wills Jr, LG Joel Bitonio, C Ethan Pocic, RG Wyatt Teller, RT Jack Conklin