Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 11/6/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Thursday, Nov 03, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Chargers -3.5
FanDuel: Chargers -3
BetMGM: Chargers -3
Caesars: Chargers -3

Season record
Chargers: 4-3
Falcons: 4-4

November is here, the midway mark is here in the NFL season, and there's a lot of good football left to be played. Have you been keeping up with the NFC East? It's insane, right? What about what happened in the trade market this week? Even more insane! The landscape of the NFL has suddenly changed, and this week will be the first time to actually see what transpires. Our champion handicappers are killing it this NFL season. Jack Banks is sitting with a 13-8-0 mark over the last month, and Sean Murphy was even better with a 6-1-0 run this last week. What will our guys do this week with an enticing week coming up? Make sure you're plugged to bigal.com to find out!

Chargers - Falcons preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Chargers: Bye (lost 37-23 vs. Seahawks in Week 7)
Falcons: won 37-34 (OT) vs. Panthers

So, here's the skinny with this interesting game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Atlanta Falcons. We all know how their previous games went. The Chargers got mollywhopped at "home" against the resurgent Geno Smith and Seattle Seahawks. The Falcons benefited off a ridiculously dumb penalty from D.J. Moore, beat the Carolina Panthers in overtime and now lead the NFC South at the midway mark of the season.

The NFL is a dumb league and may we all relish in its stupidity forever and ever, amen. But alas, this is a big game for both clubs. The Chargers need a win to keep their playoff prospects going and could use a win after getting shellacked by the Seahawks, 37-23, ending their three-game winning streak that brought them back over .500.

For the Falcons, the first-place Atlanta football team (which is still some weird ish to think about), the Falcons have been alternating wins and losses for the last five weeks and are suddenly in a position where the playoffs -- with Marcus Mariota at quarterback -- are a realistic possibility. Again, they can send all fruit baskets to D.J. Moore's locker in Carolina because I still don't understand how that even happened. Everyone has watched, or played, football long enough to know that refs will absolutely, 100 percent, flag the player for taking his helmet off with time remaining. It's not like that Hail Mary came with no time left.

Alas, the Falcons are 4-4 and are in first place. Still weird to say. But Mariota is coming off a day where he threw for three touchdowns and 253 yards on 20 of 28 passing. It hasn't been the cleanest of years, but Mariota and the Falcons can stand here and be happy that they're here with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' shortcomings this season.

"He's a resilient guy," Falcons coach Arthur Smith said when asked about Mariota's big 30-yard run that set up Younghoe Koo's game-winning 41-yard field goal in the extra frame. "That's why we believe in Marcus. There's not many guys who can make that play."

There's not been a lot to like about the Falcons' offense. Kyle Pitts has hardly been utilized in the offense, outside of 80 yards and a touchdown last week, putting a lot of pressure on Drake London in his rookie year. The Chargers are without J.C. Jackson for the year, so there will be pressure on Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa to get pressure and make life easy on the secondary.

But the Chargers need an absolutely better performance from their offense. Justin Herbert threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns but went 33 of 51 to get there. Austin Ekeler ran for 31 yards and a touchdown, but the Chargers ran for 53 yards on 15 total carries. Meanwhile, the L.A. defense got torched by rookie running back (and the nation's top running back last year) Kenneth Walker III (167 yards, 2 TDs).

"We were able to fight our way back and get back into the game, but there's a lot of energy that goes with that. Then, we just didn't play a clean enough second half in any phase to create any momentum and to get the lead back," Chargers coach Brandon Staley said. "Just didn't play well enough today in any phase."

Prediction


The Chargers are slightly favored to win this one, but they have to find some balance to get the win. The Falcons' secondary has been torched almost all year, but the defense has given up just 108 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is going to struggle, but it will live by Herbert throwing 51 times again. There's something to this Falcons team that might have something to go off of with a little bit of belief. Falcons by 6

Betting trends


Chargers are 11-7 ATS on the road the last three years; 3-0 this season.

Chargers are 15-5 ATS since 1992 off a loss by 10 or more as a favorite.

Chargers are 1-8 ATS in November games the last three years.

Chargers are 4-4 ATS off a home loss the last three years.

Falcons are 6-1 ATS this season as an underdog; 15-13 the last three years.

Falcons are 6-13 ATS at home the last three years; 3-1 this season.

Falcons are 9-3 ATS off a division game the last three years.

Statistical leaders


Chargers:
Passing: Justin Herbert -- 2,009 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Austin Ekeler -- 390 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Austin Ekeler -- 357 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Khalil Mack -- 6 sacks

Falcons:
Passing: Marcus Mariota -- 1,432 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Tyler Allgeier -- 324 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Drake London -- 346 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Grady Jarrett -- 4.5 sacks

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Los Angeles Chargers - Atlanta Falcons prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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