Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Odds, Preview and Picks - 06/19/2022

by James Q

Saturday, Jun 18, 2022

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Odds, Preview and Picks - 06/19/2022

 
Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Sunday, June 19th, 2022 
Venue: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
Where to Watch: ESPN + MLB.TV 

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Angels +149, Mariners -169; O/U 7.5
Caesars:  Angels +140, Mariners -159; O/U 7.5
PointsBet: 

 

Season Record

Angels: 30-36, 3rd place AL West
Mariners: 29-36, 4th place AL West

Game 4 of the Angels vs the Mariners 5-game series in Seattle.  Games 1 and 2 were split.  The Angels won Game 1, 4-1, with Shohei Ohtani starting on the mound.  The Mariners won Game 2, 8-1,  with Robbie Ray starting on the mound.  So apparently these even teams by record are closer than the numbers insinuate.  It will depend on starting pitching… it will depend on bullpens.  The Angels have a slight advantage in that area, but only slight.  By winning the Game 2 Seattle raised it’s home record to .500 at 15-15.  The recommendation I gave out for Game 3 was to bet the Angels… same as I gave out for Game 1 and 2.  I was right and wrong with Game 3 playing tonight.  I shouldn’t expect the Angels to sweep a series with their record and history… but all the numbers tell us that the Angels have that slight advantage in every game they play the Mariners.  I’m going to tell you to bet the Angels again.  I’m also going to tip you to the numbers telling us that both the Mariners and the Angels have math that strongly points toward the UNDER.

A Battle of American League West teams… that are essentially the same team.  They are both bad with a few good players.  They are essentially tied with bad records in the AL West. This is a game of “blink”… who will defy their bad stats long enough to get the win?  Sometimes we have a deficiency as bettors to only look at the good matchups… but the BAD matchups, the ones who won’t  make a difference, those are great betting opportunities.  We can see right into the numbers.   The Mariners have been bad from the jump of the season.  The Angels started great… then fell down a well so deep, the manager got fired.   The outcome of these matchups means an actual return on your betting dollar.  Let’s look at the numbers and get it right.

The Los Angeles Angels have won only 2 of their last 10 games.  They also happen to be the only two times the Angels offense looked alive.  Going 5 Over and 5 Under.  The Angels were built off a random idea of a baseball team.  The Angels braintrust paid big dollars to get P Shoehei Ohtani and Mike Trout… two of the best guys ever to step on a baseball diamond.  They don’t seem to be able to build the rest of the roster.  The Angels say they are “Los Angeles” but they actually play 50 miles away in Orange County.  While there is nothing essentially wrong with that… They do share the same “fakeness” as the Housewives of Orange County.  The entire team is smoke and mirrors built around 2-3 guys.  If someone ran the Angels with an eye toward building a complete baseball team that could compete?... Both Shohei and Trout would be traded away and the real work would begin.  

The Angels went 0-1 against the Dodgers (with one more to play tonight), 1-2 against the New York Mets, 1-3 against the New York Mets, and 0-2 to the Philadelphia Phillies. Mike Trout leads the Angels in Home Runs while Taylor Ward leads the team in Batting average.  Shohei Ohtani is the Angels greatest player as both a pitcher and a long-ball hitter… but he is having an off-year on the mound.  

The Seattle Mariners are a small market team disguised as a big city team.  Over the years the Mariners have had HUGE players in their system and on their team… and they have seemingly never gotten it done.  This season Eugenio leads them in home runs and Ty France leads them in batting average… but none of it means anything since the pitching is below average.

The Mariners have won 5 of their last 10 games.  They are going .500 at just the right time as a swooning Angels come to meet them with an essentially tied record.  They went 1-1 against the Minnesota Twins, 1-2 against the Boston Red Sox, 2-1 against the Houston Astros, and 1-1 against the Texas Rangers.  


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Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Preview and Analysis

Offensive Analysis

The Angels are 15th in scoring with 4.39 runs per game, 13th in batting average with .234, and 167th in OBP with .314.

The Mariners are 23rd in scoring with 4.08 runs per game, 22nd in batting average with .237, and 9th in OBP with .321.

Defensive Analysis 

The Angels’ pitching ranks 17th in the league in ERA with 3.92, 11th in WHIP with 1.23, and 20th in fielding errors with 38 on the season so far.

The Mariners’ pitchers are 20th in ERA with 3.98, 14th in WHIP with 1.25, and 2nd in fielding errors with a low low 24 on the season.
 

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Our prediction for Sunday June 19th is… Angels 3 - Mariners 1
 
The math says the Angels but the Angels have not lived up to their math over the last month after a hot start.  The math they do respect is the Over/Under… where both the Angels and Mariners favor the Under.  So the bet is UNDER… and if you want to parlay 2 bets then add an Angels win on the money-line, which should pay off well as the Angels are the underdog.
 
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MLB Betting Trends

Seattle is 78-59 against division opponents the last 3 years.
Seattle is 5-1 when playing with a day off this season.
The Angels are 3-12 as a road underdog of +100 or higher.
The Angels have 56 Overs and 33 Unders against left-handed starters.  
 

Key Injuries

Angels: LF T. Ward (hamstring) Out ** SS D. Fletcher (groin) Out **  

Mariners: SS J. Crawford, C T Murphy (shoulder) Out, 1B E. White (groin) Out ** CF K. Lewis (concussion) Out

Players to Watch 

Angels: LHP Kenny Rosenberg, 0-0, 7.50 ERA, 7 strikeouts in 6 innings pitched.  1.67 WHIP.  The 26 year old Kenny is such a greenhorn that his numbers are all speculative.  His entire Big League career includes 6 innings pitched and in 2 of those innings he got shelled so hard that his numbers are crap.  The magic with a small sample size is that 1 or 2 good innings will radically change his numbers.  The Angels plan on giving him this spot and then giving way to the bullpen early regardless of his numbers…. So let us see.

Mariners: RHP Logan Gilbert, 7-2, 2.22 ERA, 76 strikeouts in 77 innings pitched,  1.06 WHIP.  The 25 year old Logan Gilbert is rising the ranks with solid numbers… but he still has to rely on run support.  I think he will do great and his bullpen will let him down late.

Starting Lineups 

Angels:  LF Brandon Marsh, DH Mike Trout, 3B Anthony Rendon, 1B Jared Walsh, 2B Matt Duffy, RF Juan Lagares, C Kurt Suzuki, CF Tyler Wade, SS Andrew Velazquez
 
Mariners: 2B Adam Frazier, 1B Ty France, CF Julio Rodriguez, 3B Eugenio Suarez, DH Abraham Toro, C Cal Raleigh, RF Taylor Trammel, SS Dylan Moore, LF Sam Haggerty

Managers

Angels: Interim manager.  I will learn his name when he actually gets the job. 
Mariners: Scott Servais

Weather Forecast

Cloudy.  60* for the day’s high… this is a night game,..  Humidity 74% and precipitation 20%... welcome to Seattle where the warm summer weather is actually damp and chilly.  The winds are 8 mph.  


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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