by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Dec 19, 2022Boca Raton Bowl
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Toledo -4.5; Toledo -180, Liberty +155; O/U 54
FanDuel: Toledo -4.5; Toledo -182, Liberty +150; O/U 53.5
BetMGM: Toledo -4.5; Toledo -200, Liberty +165; O/U 53.5
Caesars: Toledo -4.5; Toledo -189, Liberty +158; O/U 54
Season record
Liberty: 8-4
Toledo: 8-5
Bowl season is here! There are 42 games that are going to be determining how this season ends. We appreciate you for hanging with us during this college football season, and you know it’s not over yet. We’re going to keep on rolling and giving your our best picks over the course of the next month. All the way up until the College Football Playoff, which is going to have some incredible games. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!
Liberty - Toledo preview, analysis and prediction
Liberty analysis
You want to talk about an absolute collapse over the course of the last few weeks, look no further than the Liberty Flames. Think about how this is perceived: You’re 8-1. Your only loss was a 1-point loss on the road to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Any other results have been great. You beat BYU and you won at Arkansas. Then you face UConn the next week and somehow lose, then lose by 1 to Virginia Tech and follow that with getting run out of the stadium against New Mexico State.
Oh, and your coach somehow gets a job offer to go to Auburn. In what world does any of that makes sense? Liberty doesn’t, and that’s why even against Toledo you should take this with a grain of salt. The Flames have lost their last three against the spread, double-digit favorites in all three, and have failed to cover in five of the last seven. Liberty was 24-point favorites against New Mexico State and got ran out the building. Liberty was a double-digit favorite in their last six ATS losses.
Liberty has had to go with multiple quarterbacks between Johnathan Bennett and Kaidon Salter. Neither have been good, combining for 19 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. Malik Willis isn’t walking through that door any time soon.
This is going to be the first time since the 21-19 win at Arkansas that Liberty will be underdogs. Maybe the Flames need to be dogs going forward because that appears how they win and have their best games. The books clearly know what they’re doing.
Toledo analysis
That being said, the Toledo Rockets haven’t been any better. Toledo ended a five-game ATS losing streak with their 17-7 win at Ohio to win the MAC Championship. The Toledo defense stifled the Ohio offense that didn’t have Kurtis Rourke at quarterback.
Toledo nearly missed out on the conference championship game with one-score losses to Bowling Green and Western Michigan, part of a stretch that included being favored in all five of their ATS losses. Toledo was favored by 3.5 against a banged-up Ohio team and was able to take advantage for the most part.
Toledo is going to need to be sure to not turn the football over. That was the only thing stopping quarterback Dequan Finn this year. He’s thrown 22 touchdowns but 12 interceptions have halted the momentum this offense is trying to generate.
The problem is you can’t trust this defense fully after holding an Ohio team to just seven points. The offense should not be putting up 17 points and expect to win. They’re fortunate to be in a matchup where the opponent might be worse in this scenario.
Prediction
The over is 8-0 following Toledo’s last eight ATS wins, so maybe that wakes up Toledo to score some points. I just don’t trust Liberty, whose coach is already out the door. You think guys want to play for him and that program after how things collapsed this year? Likely not. Toledo by 14
Betting trends
Toledo is 8-1 ATS after losing 2 of 3 over the last 3 seasons.
Liberty is 45-26 ATS all-time.
Liberty is 9-1 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.
Statistical leaders
Liberty:
Passing: Jonathan Bennett – 1,534 yards, 12 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Dae Dae Hunter – 850 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Demario Douglas – 977 yards, 6 TD
Toledo:
Passing: Daequan Finn – 2,127 yards, 22 TD, 12 INT
Rushing: Jacquez Stewart – 659 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Jerjuan Newton – 788 yards, 9 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
