by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Oct 27, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Raiders -1.5
FanDuel: Raiders -1.5
BetMGM: Raiders -1.5
Caesars: Raiders -1.5
Season record
Raiders: 2-4
Saints: 2-5
If this were a 16-game season, we’d be rejoicing that we’re at the halfway mark, which I guess we still are at this point? Not quite sure, but alas, here we are at the halfway mark and things are topsy turvy. The Buccaneers are below .500. The Packers are below .500. The NFC East has a three-team race that includes the Giants not knowing how to lose. What in the world is going to happen this week? One thing we can assure you is if Al McMordie continues on his 8-4-0 run over the last week, you’re also looking up at the halfway mark if you believe in our champion handicappers. Want to get in on this? Go to our Best Bets page at bigal.com and get ready for an exciting week of football.
Raiders - Saints preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Raiders: won 38-20 vs. Texans
Saints: lost 42-34 at Cardinals (Thursday)
The Las Vegas Raiders are coming into this week’s matchup with a 2-4 record but off a win over the Houston Texans, 38-20. The Raiders have won two of three after starting the season having lost their first three games. If not for blowing a 17-0 lead in Kansas City two weeks prior, the Raiders might be in a better spot having come off their bye week. Quarterback Derek Carr completed 21 of 27 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown against the Texans, but the day belonged to Josh Jacobs rushing for 143 yards and three touchdowns to send fantasy owners everywhere in a glad state of euphoria. The Raiders defense also stood tall last week despite just one sack. Duron Harmon returned an interception for a touchdown in the waning moments of the game, and the Raiders defense had three tackles for loss. It wasn’t the most clean effort, but scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter and keeping the Texans off the board was essentially all Las Vegas needed to do in this game. Davante Adams had eight catches for 95 yards, and Hunter Renfrow also had 55 yards on three catches. Mack Hollins caught Carr’s lone touchdown pass in the second quarter.
The Las Vegas Raiders are coming into this week’s matchup with a 2-4 record but off a win over the Houston Texans, 38-20. The Raiders have won two of three after starting the season having lost their first three games. If not for blowing a 17-0 lead in Kansas City two weeks prior, the Raiders might be in a better spot having come off their bye week. Quarterback Derek Carr completed 21 of 27 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown against the Texans, but the day belonged to Josh Jacobs rushing for 143 yards and three touchdowns to send fantasy owners everywhere in a glad state of euphoria. The Raiders defense also stood tall last week despite just one sack. Duron Harmon returned an interception for a touchdown in the waning moments of the game, and the Raiders defense had three tackles for loss. It wasn’t the most clean effort, but scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter and keeping the Texans off the board was essentially all Las Vegas needed to do in this game. Davante Adams had eight catches for 95 yards, and Hunter Renfrow also had 55 yards on three catches. Mack Hollins caught Carr’s lone touchdown pass in the second quarter.
"I think it's more of a credit to the offensive line," said Jacobs, who topped 100 yards for the third straight game. "I come back to them all the time because I feel like it's the first time in a long time where I've had four to five yards without being touched by anybody. They're making it pretty easy on me, and I'm gonna make sure I take care of them for sure."
The New Orleans Saints are coming into this game losers of four of their last five and have given up at least 28 points in their last four games. The offense has seemingly found a way to improve with Andy Dalton at quarterback, but the defense has taken a tremendous hit. It didn’t help matters that Dalton, named the starter over Jameis Winston going forward, threw two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the 42-34 loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. Dalton did complete 30 passes for 361 yards and four touchdowns, but the three interceptions ultimately did him in. Alvin Kamara looked like his old self with 105 yards from scrimmage, and rookie receiver Chris Olave had a team-high 7 receptions for 106 yards. The Ohio State product is the only rookie with two games of 100 yards receiving this season. It will be a tall task for the Saints defense to control this Las Vegas offense. Cameron Jordan had a sack last week, Demario Davis recorded his fifth sack of the season tying his career-high, and trying to throw on Marshon Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu is never an easy task.
"The three takeaways were killers in the game," Saints coach Dennis Allen. "We've got to fix some of these issues, that's my responsibility."
Prediction
The Saints need to find a way to contain Jacobs. It sadly took the Raiders 4-5 weeks to understand they have a good running back that can take over a game. When you have a passing attack like that, you need to utilize the running game. That’s going to help Carr (and it has helped him) open up the play-action game. The Raiders can control this game if they keep running the football well, hence why this AFC West is still open for the moment. I don’t trust the Saints, who have given up 123 rushing yards per game, to be able to contain Jacobs. Raiders by 14
Betting trends
Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite.
Raiders are 9-11 ATS in their last 20 road games.
Raiders are 10-13 ATS off an over in the last three years.
Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a home underdog.
Saints are 8-12 ATS in their last 20 home games.
Statistical leaders
Raiders:
Passing: Derek Carr -- 1,520 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Josh Jacobs -- 633 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Davante Adams -- 509 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Maxx Crosby -- 6 sacks
Saints:
Passing: Andy Dalton -- 946 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Alvin Kamara -- 351 yards
Receiving: Chris Olave -- 495 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Demario Davis -- 5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
