Game Time:  3:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 23rd, 2022

Venue:  Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Where to Watch:  NBC

 

FanDuel: point spread: Tampa Bay -3; O/U 47

DraftKings: Tampa Bay -3; O/U 47

BetMGM: Tampa Bay -3.5; O/U 46.5

Caesars: Tampa Bay -3.5; O/U 47

 

Tampa Bay: 13-4, 1st place NFC South

Los Angeles: 12-5 1st place NFC West

A battle between the Goat and the Greenhorn.  Tom Brady has been here before… you’ve seen it.  Early playoff battle the Goat is almost guaranteed to move on.  It’s set in stone, been chiseled by angels, and set to song.  7 Super Bowl Rings!  A couple of Super Bowl losses.  A quarterback who has been to more Super Bowls than most NFL FRANCHISES!... The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold all the cards and have a couple aces tucked up their sleeves.  However the Los Angeles Rams have the better team.  The Rams QB Matthew Stafford got his very first playoff victory last week.  The man was the first pick in 2009! 12 years of consistent failure!  The man couldn’t win a playoff game until a juggernaut franchise loaded with offensive and defensive talent traded for him and in doing so made a bet on his strong arm.  No one should believe in this guy… not against the GOAT.  Matthew Stafford will never have what Tom Brady has… he will make it to retirement without ever getting near Tom’s postseason passing TD’s, passing Yardage, postseason wins, rings, endorsements, supermodel wife who makes $33 million annually, most recognizable face on earth that doesn’t play soccer.  Matt Stafford will never have that… but Matt has two things Tom Brady doesn’t…. A full cadre of quality receivers and a REAL chip on his shoulder.   Tom can no longer claim his late draft selection or his cold-hearted New England Patriots coach as real chips.  Matthew Stafford can claim he was the best quarterback held hostage by the worst franchise over the last decade.  Matthew Stafford will beat Tom Brady… let’s look at the numbers.

The Los Angeles Rams just demolished the Arizona Cardinals 34-11… it wasn’t that close.  Mid-season addition from the Denver Broncos LB/DE Von Miller showed up in the form of a sack, a tackle for a loss, and causing sheer panic in QB Kyler Murray.  Von Miller was way down the scouting report of things Kyler Murray had to panic about.  DT Aaron Donald is the best D-Line player in the NFL.. ILB Troy Reeder and OLB Leonard Floyd exploit offensive lines putting too much focus on Aaron Donald…. And if the opposing quarterback wants to get rid of the ball early… CB Jalen Ramsey takes that away too.  So the Rams have a great defense?... They are also loaded on the offensive side of the ball.  Matthew Stafford passed for 5088 yards this season… mostly to total stud, the NFL’s best receiver Cooper Kupp (2008 yards), but also to TE Tyler Higbee, WR Van Jefferson, and new addition WR Odell Beckham Jr…. The Rams are missing WR Robert Woods, but his injury happened the same day Odell Beckham JR came over from the hapless Cleveland Browns… They will miss Woods, but they won’t MISS Woods. The Rams won 5 of their last 6 games of the season… They played in what may have been the most difficult division in the season where 3 of 4 teams made the playoffs and the worst team had Russell Wilson at quarterback.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were anointed the Kings of the league when quarterback Tom Brady Chose them in free agency and immediately won a Super Bowl.  To make matters better, the Buccaneers returned virtually everyone from that Super Bowl winning squad…. I didn’t check the practice squad but everyone who mattered was back for another run.  The only weakness they displayed this season was an inability to beat the New Orleans Saints.  The Saints beat Brady twice and didn’t even make the playoffs!  The Bucs ended the season by winning 7 of their last 8 games… the Buffalo Bills were even in that list of victims… However… The rest of the teams look awful… The New York Jets, the Carolina Panthers, the New York Giants, the Atlanta Falcons, the Indianapolis Colts… I mean these teams will all be watching the playoffs from home.  In fact The Buccaneers division is terrible.  They started the season with 6 easy wins and didn’t get them all.  The Rams will seriously be the toughest team that the Bucs have faced since December 12th.  A tough break for the Bucs was of course RB Leonard Fournette going down with injury… he will be questionable for this game… but it is a big question.  The other mishaps were of course in the wide receiver corps… WR Chris Godwin went down and won’t be back… he was their best by far.  Also WR Antonio Brown melted down on his 4th team in five seasons… and ended his career suddenly in a strip tease dance.  That leaves Tom Brady with backup receivers, a most likely backup running back… and a less explosive defense than the team across the field.  The point spread in this game lives entirely through reputation.

Matt went 1-2 on Sunday and is on a 7-3 NFL run and he closes Week 16 with a BIG Winner! He is on a 24-16 NFL Run and going back, he is on a 34-21 NFL RAMPAGE! Fargo is a SWEET 21-12 with his Primetime Punishers while going 677-578 +$36,583 long-term!! Get Matt Fargo’s picks!!....  They are available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.

RECENT FORM

The Rams are 13-5 on the season, but 9-9 ATS.  They have logged 9 Overs, 8 Unders, and 1 Push. They are 7-2 in road games.

 

The Buccaneers are 14-4 on the season, but 10-8 ATS.  They have logged 9 Over and 9 Unders. They are 8-1 in home games.  They have Brady who is the most poised home quarterback of all time.

 

 

The Rams are 8th in scoring with 27.1 ppg, 9th in yards with 372.1 per game.  It breaks down to 5th in passing yards and 25th in rushing yards.  There is a caveat though… RB Cam Akers had his first big game back against the Arizona Cardinals after missing the whole season.  He looked great, he ran great, and he chewed up the Arizona defense.  So the rushing yards are bunk going into this matchup.

The Buccaneers are 2nd in scoring (against the NYJ, NY Giants, and junk) with 30.1 ppg, 2nd in yards with 405.9 per game.  That breaks down to 1st in passing yards and 26th in rushing yards.  Brady completes passes and that will weigh heavily on CB Jalen Ramsey as he decides which half of the field tro try and cut off.

The Rams defense is ranked 17th while giving up 344.9 yards per game… they jump up to 15th in defending scoring while allowing 21.9 ppg from opponents.  They are 6th best against rushing yards which won’t mean much against the Buccaneers attack… still the numbers don’t reflect that a quarterback could get his lunch handed to him by Aaron Donald anytime anywhere.

The Buccaneers defense is ranked 13th while giving up 331.5 ypg (against the NY Jets, NY Giants, Indy Colts… ? what are numbers anyway?).  They are particularly tough against scoring where they rank 5th… allowing only 20.8 ppg from opponents.

Our prediction for Sunday, January 23rd is… Rams 38 - Bucs 17

Seriously, this is a pick for the Rams to win both ATS and solidly straight up.  The numbers and history betray this matchup.  When the patriots didn’t have weapons for Tom to throw the ball to he went 10 straight years of not getting to a Super Bowl… now before you say “Matt Stafford went 12 years without getting a playoff WIN!”  remember one team is stacked… the other is holding on for their lives.  I’ve got Rams and OVER… I’m betting it as a parlay for $100.  I’m betting the Rams for the win separately for $500.  Join me and let’s get steaks on the moon.

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The Rams are 4-1 ATS when the spread is +3 - -3 this season.

The Rams are 8-4 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

The Rams are 5-1 ATS against southeast division opponents the last 3 seasons.

The Rams are 7-2 ATS after a win against a division rival.

 

Rams: OL Andrew Whitworth Quest ** WR Brian Skowronek Quest ** CB David Long Jr Quest ** S Taylor Rapp Quest

Buccaneers: RB Leonard Fournette Quest ** RB Ronald Jones II Quest ** WR Cyril Grayson Quest ** Cb Sean Murphy-Bunting Quest ** T Tristan Wirfs Out

Rams: QB Matthew Stafford, RB Sony Michel, WR Odell Beckham JR, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Van Jefferson, TE Tyler Higbee, LT Andrew Whitworth, LG David Edwards, C Brian Allen, RG Austin Corbett, RT Rob Havenstein

Buccaneers: QB Tom Brady, RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, WR Mike Evans, WR Breshard Perriman, WR Tyler Johnson, TE Rob Grobnkowski, LT Donovan Smith, LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen, RG Alex Cappa, RT Tristan Wirfs

Rams

Touchdowns: Darrell Henderson Jr 5

Rushing Yards: Sony Michel 903

Passing Yards: Matthew Stafford 5088

Receiving Yards: Cooper Kupp 2008

Sacks: Aaron Donald 13

Interceptions: Jalen Ramsey 4

Buccaneers

Touchdowns: Leonard Fournette 8

Rushing Yards: Leonard Fournette 812

Passing Yards: Tom Brady 5587

Receiving Yards: Mike Evans 1152

Sacks: Shaquil Barrett 10

Interceptions: Mike Edwards 4

 

Mostly Sunny.  60*, wind at 10 mph.  Just about perfect football weather.  If you are going to the game watch out for Gators in the parking lot.  Gators are the worst.