La Liga and Serie A: Latest Look!

Well, Barcelona certainly made quite the statement on Saturday, didn’t they?

Barca’s 4-0 thrashing of first place Real Madrid in “El Clasico” closed the gap to 12 points. It’s probably still too large to overcome, but Barca is probably finishing in second this season, given Sevilla’s recent form. The gap between second and third is currently just three points. 

To me, Sevilla isn’t even a top four side in La Liga, but their fast start to the campaign probably guarantees they’ll be headed back to the Champions League next season. The lead over fifth place Real Betis is just seven points, but Betis is a side I see moving down the table, not up. It’s Villarreal that probably finishes “odd team out” as they only have 45 points, nine back of the top four and the Yellow Submarine also has Bayern Munich to worry about in the Champions League quarter finals.

So, expect the top four to be Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla, probably in that order. Villarreal will probably finish fifth ahead of Betis and Real Sociedad, leaving the latter two sides to battle for Europa League Conference qualifying. Note that the two Madrid sides and Villarreal are all in the UCL quarter finals. Barcelona is in the Europa League quarter finals. Sevilla is the lone side without any current European commitments as they were just eliminated from the Europa League.

The middle of the La Liga table remains a bit of a jumbled mess. I think Celta Vigo finishes in the top ten. Valencia is facing Betis next month in the Finals of the Copa del Rey, which is another automatic entry in next season’s Europa League. That one will be far more important to Valencia, who is highly unlikely to finish top five in the La Liga table. 

The race to avoid relegation has gotten quite tight. Amazingly, for the second straight season, Cadiz, Elche and Granada are the bottom three on xPts (expected points) and again all may avoid being sent down to the Segunda Division. Right now, Elche is in the best position, six points clear of the drop zone. But Granada and Cadiz are just two and one point clear, respectively. The current bottom three are: Mallorca, Alaves and Levante, who have the worst three goal differentials. Levante, like last year’s bottom finisher Eibar, deserves to stay but it may be “too little, too late.” They have the fewest number of wins in the league (3). Mallorca, a newly promoted side for this season, has been in awful form of late with six straight losses and they haven’t scored a single goal in four of the last five. 

 

This is the league with the biggest gap between the top four and everyone else. It’s AC Milan, Napol, Inter and Juventus (some familiar names) occupying the Champions League places with Atalanta and Roma (tied for fifth) currently looking at an eight-point gap.

Both Napoli and Inter have better goal differentials than AC Milan and so there could be a change at the top. AC Milan is only fourth in xPts, also behind Roma. I think Napoli is primed to earn the Scudetto. 

No Italian side is currently left in the Champions League as both Inter and Juventus were bounced in the Round of 16. So there’s lots of pressure on everybody right now.

Atalanta’s best path of claiming a spot in next season’s UCL might be winning the Europa League, which they are still involved in, but it’s a tough quarterfinal matchup vs. RB Leipzig out of the Bundesliga. 

Roma and Atalanta are likely to finish in the top six, which would leave sides such as Lazio and Fiorentina on the outside looking in when it comes to European football next season. Although Fiorentina is still in the Coppa Italia, which is down to the semis, and the winner of that gains entry to the Europa League. The other three remaining sides in that competition are Milan, Inter and Juventus. 

I think there is a massive gap, reflected in goal differential, between 11th and 12th place in this league.

The relegation battle should come down to these five sides: Salernitana (a lock), Genoa, Venezia, Cagliari and Spezia. I think Venezia, who like Salernitana was just promoted for this season, is likely to be headed right back to Serie B. Most of the way, I thought Genoa was also bound for relegation. But they’ve somehow picked up points in eight straight matches, despite scoring only three goals! (Five 0-0 draws). They are still tied (with Venezia) for 18th at 22 points. Their league-leading 16 draws will either be their savior or doom. Still only with a league-low two wins, Genoa is still projected for relegation by my numbers