by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Oct 27, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Tennessee -12
FanDuel: Tennessee -11.5
BetMGM: Tennessee -12.5
Caesars: Tennessee -12
Season record
No. 19 Kentucky: 5-2 (2-2 SEC)
No. 3 Tennessee: 7-0 (3-0 SEC)
We’re quickly approaching the fun time of the year where conference title games are made and upsets are the norm in college football. After minimal change in the top-25 polls this week, what in the world can we expect this time around? One thing you can be sure of is Kyle Hunter and his 22-9-0 mark in college football over the last month. Sean Murphy has also seen a profitable month at 28-15-0 over the last 30 days. What does the world have in store this time around with what should be another exciting week of college football? Follow our best bets page and make sure to be in tune with what our champion handicappers have to say this week!
Kentucky - Tennessee preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Kentucky: won 27-17 vs. No. 16 Mississippi State
Tennessee: won 65-24 vs. Tennessee-Martin
The Kentucky Wildcats snapped their two-game losing streak two weeks ago with a 27-17 win at home against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a much-needed win. After losing by 3 to the Ole Miss Rebels and 10 to South Carolina, Kentucky needed a bounceback performance and got just that thanks to a hearty performance from running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. The tailback carried the ball 31 times for 197 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Will Levis threw for 230 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
The Kentucky Wildcats snapped their two-game losing streak two weeks ago with a 27-17 win at home against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a much-needed win. After losing by 3 to the Ole Miss Rebels and 10 to South Carolina, Kentucky needed a bounceback performance and got just that thanks to a hearty performance from running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. The tailback carried the ball 31 times for 197 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Will Levis threw for 230 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Barion Brown led the room of pass catchers with 62 yards on 7 receptions and the offense had a near field day against Mississippi State, outgaining them 478-225. But despite turning the ball over twice, Kentucky held the ball for almost 40 minutes and dominated them from the offensive side of the ball. Not to mention Kentucky did some damage defensively by holding Mississippi State to just 22 yards on 10 carries. Talk about an all-bad performance under Mike Leach, that exactly would be it, but I digress that it could’ve been better had they figured out how to run the ball.
Nevertheless, the Wildcats needed a big-time victory and got it. They might need a better performance from Levis, who seemed like a Heisman candidate before the season began. He’s not quite there yet, but he’s shown he can provide big-time performances. It will help that the star running back is also back after eclipsing 3,000 career rushing yards.
"It means a lot getting 3,000," Rodriguez said. "I was not thinking about it. I was wondering why everyone was congratulating me, the game is not over. And then I saw it on the Jumbotron."
The Tennessee Volunteers remain the darlings at least by this website and this author. The Vols are coming into this now No. 3 in the country and is 7-0 after a 65-24 win against Tennessee-Martin. This was a game that was over by the second quarter, but made more over once Tennessee took a 52-7 lead at halftime. Hendon Hooker didn’t even need to play the entire first half because he threw three touchdowns by midway through the second and along with 276 yards.
Tennessee had 696 total yards, which is the dumbest number I could’ve possibly ever seen. Also, that win probability chart stayed at 100% the entire time and my god was it ever glorious.
''I thought our guys prepared the right way this week,'' said Tennessee coach Josh Heupel. ''You've gotta be a consistent competitor.''
Indeed they were, and another SEC ranked opponent comes to their house with another opportunity for the Vols to get a resume-building win under their belt. And it could be another chance for Hooker, coming out of nowhere to become a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft, to add to his Heisman candidacy. And yes, he’d be my favorite right now if the season ended today.
Prediction
Kentucky’s defense might be the toughest Tennessee has seen this season. The Wildcats have held opponents to 178 passing yards and 117 rushing yards per game. For a Tennessee team that’s averaged 50 points per game, it’s not going to be an easy task. Even Alabama, who should be strong on defense, gave up 52 points to the Vols. No one has stopped that group yet. I don’t see that happening now. Tennessee by 17
Betting trends
Kentucky is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog.
Kentucky is 6-6 ATS in its last 12 on the road.
Kentucky is 6-17 ATS since 1992 after covering in five or six out of their last seven.
Tennessee is 12-6 ATS as a favorite in its last 18; 5-1 this season.
Tennessee is 8-8 ATS off an over the last three years.
Statistical leaders
Kentucky:
Passing: Will Levis -- 1,635 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Chris Rodriguez Jr. -- 395 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Tayvion Robinson -- 392 yards, 3 TD
Tennessee:
Passing: Hendon Hooker -- 2,093 yards, 18 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Jaylen Wright -- 405 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Jalin Hyatt -- 769 yards, 12 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Kentucky Wildcats - Tennessee Volunteers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
