Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers Prediction & Game Preview - 2/15/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN
Where to watch: ESPN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Tennessee -1
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Tennessee -1

Season record
No. 4 Kentucky: 21-4 (10-2 SEC)
No. 16 Tennessee: 18-6 (9-3 SEC)

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Kentucky - Tennessee preview and analysis


Recent form
Kentucky: won six straight
Tennessee: won four straight

Kentucky analysis


What kind of weird situation are we living in where the Kentucky Wildcats are underdogs, even the slightest, against the Tennessee Volunteers?

You'd think one of the best teams in the country, and seemingly the most unbeatable in the SEC at this current moment, would be favored in this rematch. Especially since it was only a month ago where the Wildcats wiped the floor with Tennessee by 28 points and continued this run of SEC dominance (minus Auburn, of course).

The rematch takes place on Tuesday in Knoxville, where the Wildcats will bring a six-game winning streak to the showdown.

Kentucky has been mostly dominant with four double-digit victories, including a 78-57 win at home against Florida on Saturday. As per usual, Kentucky was led by Oscar Tshiebwe with 27 points and 19 rebounds while going 11 of 18 from the floor. That was essentially all Kentucky needed in that game. Kellan Grady added 15 points, but that defense was good enough to offset a 4 of 13 shooting performance from TyTy Washington Jr.

The freshman left the game with a lower leg injury, which may hamper him in this game. But as long as Tshiebwe is dominating in this fashion, it might not be as much of a worry.

"He's been a beast," Kentucky coach John Calipari said, "... this is high-level basketball here. This isn't eighth-grade."

There was some concern on this end after Kentucky lost to Duke in the season opener that it might be a slide of sorts. That's far from the case. Kentucky has been dominant at both ends; the Wildcats are scoring at a blistering 49.1 percent from the floor for 81.3 points per game. At the same time, Kentucky is holding teams to just 64.2 points per game and a shade over 40 percent shooting.

This is the kind of well-rounded Kentucky team that we know can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. How much of a run they can make, if fully healthy, will be fun to watch.

Tennessee analysis


As for the Vols, they might be the team in the SEC we're not talking about. Which is crazy because this group is currently in third place in the SEC and has withstood a strong slate while Arkansas and LSU have fallen around them.

Tennessee is bringing a four-game winning streak to this showdown with Kentucky after winning 73-64 at home against Vanderbilt on Saturday. Thanks to Zakai Zeigler scoring 16 points, the Vols withstood a ridiculous second-half rally from the Commodores and avoided an upset.

"We had to come together and do what we had to do on defense," Zeigler said. "They hit us pretty hard (in the second half). We looked at each other and got it done."

"We didn't run a very good offense," Vols coach Rick Barnes said of the Commodores' recovery. "We didn't play good defense either. At the end, we were able to make a push. Give (Vanderbilt) credit. They run a terrific offense. They know what they're looking for and they execute it."

Tennessee's offense has turned it up during this winning streak. Since being held to 51 points against Texas on Jan. 29, Tennessee has eclipsed 70 points in four straight games, including a 90- and 80-point effort following that loss. The defense has been a strong suit, giving up just 63.1 points per game this season (1 point better than Kentucky, go figure).

Prediction


Revenge has to be on Tennessee's brain after that shellacking in Lexington a month ago. That is why I can see the Vols being slight favorites. At the end of the day, it's a talent gap when it comes to these teams. Washington's health is going to be crucial, but I have to think Tshiebwe is dominant enough inside to handle business. Tennessee will come at him with double teams and force the other guys to beat them, which will be done if Grady has another performance like that. If it comes down to a battle of defenses, I'm taking the team that's been this good all season on the road. Kentucky by 7

Betting trends


Kentucky is 67-62 ATS as an underdog since 1997.

Kentucky is 12-27 ATS off an under.

Kentucky is 2-8 ATS off three straight wins by 10 points or more.

Tennessee is 20-24 ATS as a home favorite or pick.

The under is 105-68 when Tennessee has three straight games of committing fewer than 14 turnovers.

Projected starting lineup


Kentucky:
PG: Sahvir Wheeler
SG: TyTy Washington Jr.
SF: Kellan Grady
PF: Keion Brooks Jr.
C: Oscar Tshiebwe

Tennessee:
PG: Kennedy Chandler
SG: Santiago Vescovi
SF: Josiah-Jordan James
PF: Olivier Nkamhoua
C: Uros Plavsic


Statistical leaders


Kentucky:
Points: Oscar Tshiebwe -- 16.4
Rebounds: Oscar Tshiebwe -- 15.3
Assists: Sahvir Wheeler -- 7.2

Tennessee:
Points: Santiago Vescovi -- 13.6
Rebounds: Josiah-Jordan James -- 5.8
Assists: Kennedy Chandler -- 4.8

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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