Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/30/2021

by James Q

Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/30/2021

 
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 30th, 2021
Venue:  Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Where to Watch:  ESPN+
 

Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: Kentucky -1; Over/Under:  47 points
Circa:  Spread: Kentucky -1.5; Over/Under:  47 points
Caesars:  Spread: Kentucky -1.5;  Over/Under:  47 points
 

Season Record

Kentucky: 4-1 conf, 6-1 overall (SEC)
Miss State: 2-2 conf, 4-3 overall (SEC)

AN SEC matchup that is shaping up to be a good game. At a point and a half Mississippi State is the slightest of underdogs. DraftKings Sportsbook has them at only 1 point.  As college football picks go the current betting odds would have to be out of respect for the Mississippi State offense which is 4th in total yards passing with 2623 and 19 touchdown passes.
 
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Kentucky vs Mississippi State Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
 
Kentucky was enjoying a nice 6 game winning streak until Georgia showed up and beat them 30-13.  Kentucky had a bye week to dust themselves off and recover.  They should be ready to resume their winning ways.
 
The Mississippi State players have seen some big opponents so far beating #15 Texas A&M 26-22 and losing to #5 Alabama 49-9… Vanderbilt last weekend was a walk in the park win 45-6.  Mississippi State’s games have been a roller coaster which has everyone wondering which team will show up against Kentucky.
 

Offensive Analysis

Kentucky is ranked 76th on offense in the FBS.  They have scored 25 touchdowns on 387.7 ypg.  
 
Mississippi State is ranked 50th on offense in the FBS.  They have 23 touchdowns on 423.4 yards per game.  The Mississippi State stats have outperformed their actual record.
 

Defensive Analysis

Kentucky is 23rd in the FBS on defense.  They have given up 16 TDs on 320.9 yards per game. The Kentucky defense gets only 2 sacks per game as a team, but the defense has produced -160 yards on 42 tackles for loss.  They get after it and they stay after it.

Mississippi State is the 28th ranked defense in the FBS.  They have given up 22 touchdowns on 326.9 yards per game.  The Bulldogs defense gets 2.29 sacks per game and has produced -156 yards on 33 tackles for loss.  They also get after it and stay after it.

These defenses are so close that to find the better football team we will actually have to watch them play each other.
 
 

Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, October 30th is….   Kentucky 28 - Miss State 25
 
 
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Kentucky is 12-6 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons.
Kentucky is 5-0 ATS against conference opponents this season.
Kentucky is 10-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.
Miss State is 5-10 ATS when playing a team with a winning record.

 
 

Starting Lineups

Kentucky:  QB Will Levis, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr, WR Isaiah Epps, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, LT Dare Rosenthal, LG Kenneth Horsey, OC Luke Fortner, RG Eli Cox, RT Darian Kinnard, TE Justin Rigg, TE Brendan Bates

Miss State: QB Will Rogers, RB J.J. Jernighan, WR Malik Heath, WR Makai Polk, WR Jamire Calvin, WR Austin Williams, LT Charles Cross, LG Kameron Jones, OC LaQuinston Sharp, RG Kwatrivious Johnson, RT Scott Lashley

 

Statistical Leaders

Miss State
Passing Yards: Will Rogers 2,546
Rushing Yards: Dillon Johnson 207
Receiving Yards: Makai Polk 552
Tackles: Jett Johnson 50
Interceptions: Emmanuel Forbes 3

Kentucky
Passing Yards: Will Levis 1,326
Rushing Yards: Chris Rodriguez JR 775
Receiving Yards: Wan’Dale Robinson 566
Tackles: Deandre Square 50 
Interceptions: Tyrell Ajian 1



COACHES:
Kentucky:  Mark Stoops.  Mark is the brother of Bob Stoops (former Oklahoma head coach) and Mike Stoops (former Arizona head coach)... It’s something of a family business.  Mark makes $5 million a year as the Wildcats head coach and has had the job since 2013.
 
Mississippi State: Mike Leach.  The madman of offense.  The father of the Air-raid.  The punisher of college kids who get injured and have to skip a practice….. Oh those bad kids!
 

Weather Forecast

Cloudy.  62* for the high.  Humidity 82% (that’s a big number) and 11 mph winds.



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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