by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Nov 22, 2023
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 25, 2023
Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Kentucky +7, Louisville -7; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Kentucky +7, Louisville -7; Over/Under: 50.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Kentucky +7, Louisville -7; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
Kentucky Wildcats: 6-5 (3-5) (4th place, SEC East)
Louisville Cardinals: 10-1 (7-1) (2nd place, ACC)
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Recent Form
Kentucky Wildcats: lost their last game on the road against the South Carolina Gamecocks 17-14.
Louisville Cardinals: won their last game on the road against the Miami-Florida Hurricanes 38-31.
Kentucky Wildcats vs Louisville Cardinals Preview and Analysis
Kentucky is entering this game with a 6-5 record overall and they have a 3-5 record in their conference games too. They are 4-3 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against South Carolina 17-14. Devin Leary was the starting QB and he completed 17/34 passes for 171 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Re'Mahn Davis led the team in rushing yards with 61 and 1 TD. Dane Key led the receivers with 51 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Deone Walker and D'Eryk Jackson each led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Deone Walker and Octavious Oxendine each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Louisville is entering this game with a 10-1 record overall and they have a 7-1 record in their conference games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 2-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Miami-FL 38-31. Jack Plummer was the starting QB and he completed 24/37 passes for 308 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Isaac Guerendo led the team in rushing yards with 93 and 1 TD. Chris Bell led the receivers with 58 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Devin Neal led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Mason Reiger led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Kentucky vs Louisville Prediction
The current betting odds have Louisville listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Louisville has looked really good in their games this season with their 10-1 record overall and their 7-1 conference record. They have already booked their spot in the ACC Championship but they will be looking to take care of business in this rivalry game on their way to the ACC Title game. Kentucky is only 5-6 overall this season and they haven't looked good in their games lately. They have struggled more in their conference with a 3-5 conference record and in their road games with their 2-2 road record. Louisville is 6-0 in their home games this season and will be looking to use this game as a way to fine tune themselves for the ACC Championship. Kentucky is already bowl eligible this season and can't go to the SEC Championship so they have nothing to play for here except trying to spoil their rivals season, but Pitt already did that to Louisville earlier this year and a loss wouldn't even do anything to affect the outcome of Louisville this season. Louisville has more motivation to win this game and cap off such a great season under their new head coach so they will be looking to finish strong here. The best way to place a bet here is on Louisville to cover the spread in this game.
Kentucky Louisville Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 25, 2023 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Louisville 35 Kentucky 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Kentucky Wildcats: 10-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 7-12 ATS after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games. 19-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 26-14 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 12-6 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders.
Louisville Cardinals: 10-4 ATS as a home favorite. 29-16 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 9-5 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 8-2 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 27-19 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 9-4 UNDER in non-conference games.
Key Injuries
Kentucky Wildcats: J. Dingle (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. B. Christman (OL) out for season - Knee. J. Wilcox (RB) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. L. Wright (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. N. Hall (OL) out for season - Undisclosed.
Louisville Cardinals: J. Brownlee Jr. (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. R. Brown (OL) out for season - Undisclosed. M. Griffin (DB) out for season - Leg.
Notable Quotes
“That’s a very difficult loss for us right there. We didn't do a better job of putting them in position to be successful.” - Mark Stoops after his team’s loss against South Carolina in their last game.
“This is a big win. To come down to Miami and win a game with a lot riding on it, it's a great feeling.” - Jeff Brohm after his team’s win against Miami-FL in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Kentucky Wildcats
WR Key, Dane
WR Brown, Barion
WR Robinson, Tayvion
TE Dingle, Jordan
TE Bates, Brenden
QB Leary, Devin
RB Davis, Ray
Louisville Cardinals
WR Thrash, Jamari
WR Calloway, Jimmy
WR Coleman, Kevin
TE Lifson, Josh
QB Plummer, Jack
RB Jordan, Jawhar
Statistical Leaders
Kentucky Wildcats
Passing: D. Leary (2234)
Rushing: R. Davis (990)
Receiving: D. Key (528)
Touchdowns: R. Davis (17)
Louisville Cardinals
Passing: J. Plummer (2710)
Rushing: J. Jordan (1009)
Receiving: J. Thrash (741)
Touchdowns: J. Jordan (12)
Coaches:
Kentucky Wildcats: Mark Stoops (11th season)
Louisville Cardinals: Jeff Brohm (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
