Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 2/22/2023

by Chuck Sommers

Wednesday, Feb 22, 2023
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Exactech Arena at Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, FL
Where to watch: ESPN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Kentucky -3
FanDuel: Kentucky -3.5
BetMGM: Kentucky -3.5
Caesars: Kentucky -3

Season record
Kentucky: 18-9 (9-5 SEC)
Florida: 14-13 (7-7 SEC)

February is here and the college basketball season is taking full shape. Conference races still to be determined, the top 25 completely in shambles for what seems like every week, and there's bound to be an upset what seems like every single week. But as the season continues to progress with what seems like exciting action every week, you know our champion handicappers continue to put the work in each and every week to not only make money for them, but to ensure you get money in your pocket. All you need to do is look at the last 30 days. Scott Rickenbach has reeled in a net profit of $14,000 with a 24-9-0 run on the college hardwood. Team Del Genio has killed it with a 13-1-0 run at +$11,900. Will Rogers (28-15-0) and Matt Fargo (40-27-0) have also seen five figures over the last 30 days with college basketball. Surely, you want to get on this winning as well. All you need to do is go to bigal.com, check out our Best Bets page and make sure you are following along on the action. March will be here before you know it! Take advantage of our best plays and find out what our champion handicappers are doing at bigal.com!

Kentucky - Florida preview, prediction and analysis


Don’t look now but the Kentucky Wildcats have suddenly remembered how to play basketball. Two straight wins, including a fraud win over Tennessee, and the Wildcats are back in business approaching 20 wins. They’ll try to make it a third straight win Wednesday against the Florida Gators in Gainesville.
 
After what’s been a rough stretch of games for Kentucky with losses to Arkansas and Georgia, they rebounded with wins over Tennessee and Mississippi State, with the former being arguably their most impressive win of the season of the year. Kentucky won after a dominant first half holding Tennessee to just 19 points in the first half.
 
Oscar Tshiebwe had 16 points (10 of 11 at the free throw line) to go with seven rebounds, and Carson Wallace also had 16 points and shot 6 of 14 to get there. Kentucky shot just 44 percent from the floor and went just 3 of 8 from 3-point range, but the defense held Tennessee to 37 percent shooting and dominated the glass (40-32).
 
“He was ready to play,” Kentucky coach John Calipari said of Wallace. “He hasn’t been good in afternoon games, and I reminded him (before the game), this team needs everybody.”
 
The Wildcats are absolutely not the same team that we are accustomed to seeing. They are not the same group that has been a national championship contender like they were in years past. But they are 9-5 in conference play and are tied with Tennessee for third place. They’re not going to catch Texas A&M or Alabama at this rate, but they are going to be a top-four seed with the chance to knock some teams out. Something to watch for here.
 
“What I liked was how we defended and how we rebounded,” Calipari said. “We outrebounded them by eight, you understand, in the country they’re like the best, they’re a plus eight rebounding and we ended up being plus eight in the first half."
 
Florida, meanwhile, is trying not to drown in the swamp. The Gators have lost four of five coming into this home game with the Wildcats and are coming off an 84-65 loss at Arkansas on Saturday. It wasn’t that long ago, Feb. 4, that Florida lost 72-67 at Lexington to these same Wildcats.
 
Riley Kugel had a team-high 17 points, and the Gators shot 37 percent from the floor and just 4 of 21 from 3-point range. The only other player to score in double figures was Will Richard with 10 points. Outside of that, this program has certainly not been the same as yesteryear, or even last year when it was competing and looking tough.
 
If Florida could just hang around a bit more and keep in the middle of the pack, that’ll at least be exciting for this group should it get there. But another loss would put them in the Georgia/Mississippi State group and that doesn’t seem ideal in any world.
 
Prediction
 
The fact that Kentucky nearly fell flat against Florida at home doesn’t sit well with me, but a Calipari team needs to be ready to go heading into the conference tournament and I think they need to make a statement of a game here. Kentucky 78, Florida 65

Betting trends


Kentucky is 9-28 ATS after an under the last 3 seasons.

Kentucky is 15-26 ATS after winning 4 or 5 out of 6 the last 3 seasons.

Florida is 12-17 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

Projected starting lineup


Kentucky:
PG: C.J. Fredrick
SG: Cason Wallace
SF: Chris Livingston
PF: Jacob Toppin
C: Oscar Tshiebwe

Florida:
PG: Myreon Jones
SG: Kyle Lofton
SF: Will Richard
PF: Alex Fudge
C: Colin Castleton

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Kentucky - Florida prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA/college basketball projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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