by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021
Game time: Noon ET, November 26, 2021
Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Texas -3
BetMGM: Texas -3
Caesars: Texas -3
Season record
Kansas State: 7-4 (4-4 Big 12)
Texas: 4-7 (2-6 Big 12)
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Kansas State - Texas preview and analysis
Last week
Kansas State: lost 20-10 vs. No. 9 Baylor
Texas: lost 31-23 at West Virginia
The Kansas State Wildcats and Texas Longhorns will wrap up their regular season on Friday in a matchup at DKR Memorial Stadium.
It's a game that won't matter much in the Big 12 standings. The Wildcats are already bowl eligible and will likely be playing one more game after this. The Longhorns, meanwhile, have lost six straight and have fallen off the college football map of obscurity
The Wildcats are looking to end a four-game losing streak against Texas and this might be the perfect time to do it. Kansas State is coming off a 20-10 loss to the 11th-ranked Baylor Bears in a hard-fought game at home.
Kansas State had an opening when Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon went down with a hamstring injury, but the offense couldn't produce much after that. Deuce Vaughn ran for 128 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries, but quarterback Skylar Thompson was inefficient throwing for 158 yards on a shade over 50 percent completions.
"They had really good plans on both sides of the ball," Wildcats coach Chris Klieman said. "They're a physical team, they play really hard. We got behind early on the miscue; we just couldn't get out of that hole."
You have to go back to 2011 to find the last time Kansas State won in Austin; it was a 17-3 victory that also spelled what truly has become the beginning of the end as far as Texas' dominance is concerned. They had that four-year run of success under Tom Herman, but the first season under Steve Sarkisian has gone about as bad as one can expect.
Since starting 3-1, the Longhorns have not just lost six straight; they've found ways to lose in different ways. Whether it be a multi-score comeback at the hands of the Oklahoma Sooners or an overtime loss to the Kansas Jayhawks, Texas is indeed not back yet and may not be for a while.
The Longhorns are coming off an 8-point loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers in yet another uninspiring offensive performance. Hudson Card threw for just 123 yards and a touchdown on 10 of 16 passing. Keilan Robinson had 111 yards on nine carries and a touchdown, while Roschon Johnson had 77 yards and a score.
Texas just couldn't stop WVU quarterback Jarret Doege throwing for 290 yards and three touchdowns. The Longhorns also didn't have star running back Bijan Robinson, who is out for the season due to a dislocated elbow.
"I thought Roschon and Keilan both stepped in nicely today," Sarkisian said. "Clearly, when you don't have Bijan out there, that's a factor. But I thought Roschon and Keilan both ran hard."
Surprisingly, the Longhorns are favored by as high as a field goal at most books. Despite the fact they're on a slide of epic proportions, people love Texas. Are they back? Maybe in the books.
Prediction
Kansas State comes in 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and I'd expect given the recent play between both programs, that K-State gets the job done. There shouldn't be a dropoff after that effort against a really good defense in Baylor, and Texas is struggling too much for anyone to believe they're playing for Sarkisian right now. Kansas State by 14
Betting trends
The over has cashed the last six times Kansas State was an underdog.
Kansas State is 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
Texas is winless in its last six ATS.
The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine matchups.
Statistical leaders
Kansas State:
Passing: Skylar Thompson -- 1,854 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Deuce Vaughn -- 1,115 yards, 14 TD
Receiving: Phillip Brooks -- 465 yards, 2 TD
Texas:
Passing: Casey Thompson -- 1,943 yards, 23 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Bijan Robinson -- 1,127 yards, 11 TD
Receiving: Xavier Worthy -- 916 yards, 12 TD
Defense:
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
