by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 28, 2022
Big 12 Championship Game
Time: Noon ET
Time: Noon ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: TCU -2.5
FanDuel: TCU -1.5
BetMGM: TCU -2.5
Caesars: TCU -2.5
Season record
No. 12 Kansas State: 9-3
No. 4 TCU: 12-0
Conference championship week is here, and you can't tell me you don't think these games mean a little bit extra on the books. College Football Playoff implications, the balance of power in the college football landscape to be decided this weekend, starting Friday with a big game notably in Las Vegas. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!
Kansas State - TCU preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Kansas State: won 47-27 vs. Kansas
TCU: won 62-14 vs. Iowa State
It has been a long time coming for the TCU Horned Frogs to finally get the respect that they deserve. It has taken decades of not only beating mediocre teams in the Mountain West, and finally breaking through in the Big 12, for TCU to get this chance to be one of the final four teams left standing to play for a national championship. An incredible regular season now culminates in a Big 12 championship game on Saturday when TCU takes on the Kansas State Wildcats at AT&T Stadium.
It has been a long time coming for the TCU Horned Frogs to finally get the respect that they deserve. It has taken decades of not only beating mediocre teams in the Mountain West, and finally breaking through in the Big 12, for TCU to get this chance to be one of the final four teams left standing to play for a national championship. An incredible regular season now culminates in a Big 12 championship game on Saturday when TCU takes on the Kansas State Wildcats at AT&T Stadium.
the last three weeks if you are a TCU fan have probably been the most nerve-wracking you could have possibly imagined. You're talking about two trap games, on the road, against Texas and Baylor and for all the talk about how great this offense has been, it was the defense and special teams that propelled TCU to those two wins. Then you go into the home finale against Iowa State, a team that has played every single game it has been in this year as tough as it can be, losing by one score in so many different games. TCU said to hell with that and went on to win 62-14 to end the regular season undefeated.
If you are not impressed with this team, I don't know what to make of you. We are talking about a team that before the season began probably add so many more questions than answers. And yet it started trickling in with wins over Oklahoma and wins over Kansas that really made people start to think that we should take this team seriously. As a result of all of that, TCU might have a Heisman Trophy finalist in quarterback Max Duggan after he threw for 3070 yards in the regular season to go with 29 touchdowns and only three interceptions. If you also need context as to how well-rounded of a quarterback Duggan is, he ran for 294 yards and five more touchdowns.
The offensive dynamic that Duggan and running back Kendre Miller created this year is something unworldly. Miller ran for 1260 yards and an absurd 16 touchdowns on 6.3 yards per carry. And he made it look effortless in an era of which the Big 12 was getting better defensively. TCU said that they weren't going to be intimidated by the resurging defense across the conference, and it absolutely showed by the defensive TCU in its own. This is a team that gave up just 24 points per game and just under 383 yards a game. For all the talk about the offense, the defense stood up and made plays when they needed to. And that's why TCU is in the position it's in right now. That's why TCU has a chance to go to the College Football Playoff and really stick it to the two Big 12 schools that are leaving in a couple of years, and who aren't even sniffing the Big 12 championship right now.
But TCU is going to have its hands full defensively against arguably the best defensive team in the conference this year in Kansas State. A tremendous run toward the end of the year for Kansas State after losing to Texas and seemingly having its conference championship hopes to hang by a thread especially considering the fact that Kansas State reeled off three straight wins and surpassed Texas in the conference standings with the tiebreaker going to Texas. Instead, Kansas State thanks to wins over Baylor West Virginia and Kansas all by 17 points or more, can now fight for a chance to play in whichever big bowl game would come up their way.
Kansas State isn't known for its electric offense but it does have a game-changer in the backfield in running back Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn ran for 1,295 yards and only seven touchdowns this year but he was a huge help for the likes of quarterback Will Howard and at the time Adrian Martinez, to put Kansas State in a position to be #12 in the country and compete for a conference championship. Howard has stepped in admirably in place of the injured Martinez throwing for 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions in what has been an incredible turnaround for Kansas State.
Prediction
in instances like this, it would normally come down to just who is better on the side of the ball that matters. And if TCU starts to run wild on Kansas State, you might as well just pack it up and go home then. I believed in TCU all year, I believe in them now, and you should get ready to watch TCU in a national semifinal game. TCU by 14
Betting trends
Kansas State is 149-104 ATS against conference opponents since 1992.
Kansas State is 37-21 ATS after winning 4 of five since 1992.
TCU is 9-2-1 ATS this season.
TCU is 49-30 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference opponents since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Kansas State:
Passing: Adrian Martinez -- 1,261 yards, 12 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Deuce Vaughn -- 1,295 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Malik Knowles -- 679 yards, 2 TD
TCU:
Passing: Max Duggan -- 3,070 yards, 29 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Kendre Miller -- 1,260 yards, 16 TD
Receiving: Quentin Johnson -- 764 yards, 5 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Kansas State Wildcats - TCU Horned Frogs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
