by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Sep 23, 2021
Game time: 7 p.m. ET, September 25, 2021
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Where to watch: Big 12 Network/ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Oklahoma State -6; O/U 46; OK State -255, Kansas State +205
BetMGM: Oklahoma State -6; O/U 46; OK State -250, Kansas State +200
Caesars: Oklahoma State -6; O/U 46; OK State -230, Kansas State +190
Season record
No. 25 Kansas State: 3-0
Oklahoma State: 3-0
Team Del Genio was a PERFECT 4-0 in all-sports on Saturday to further a 9 of 11 (82%) HOT STREAK this week, WINNING their 25* NCAA-F Pac-12 Game of the Month with USC and their 25* NCAA-F Saturday TV Total of the Month with the ASU/BYU under! Catch Del Genio’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Kansas State - Oklahoma State preview and analysis
Recent form
K-State: won 38-17 vs. Nevada-Reno on Sept. 18
Oklahoma State: won 21-20 at Boise State
It was only a matter of time before we got the matchup that was going to determine who the third or fourth best team in the Big 12 is.
Kidding of course, but this is going to be a fun matchup, and I think the Kansas State Wildcats have an edge over the Oklahoma State Cowboys to not just cover but win narrowly straight up.
The Wildcats have cracked the AP Top 25, sitting at No. 25 in the country following a 38-17 win over the Nevada Wolfpack this past week by three touchdowns. Per usual, K-State’s running game dominated over the one-dimensional UNR offense. Five Kansas State players combined for 269 rushing yards, led by Deuce Vaughn’s team-high 127, and four touchdowns to push K-State to a three-game winning streak.
Quarterback Will Howard, who still completed 7-of-10 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown pass, ran for two more scores on 56 yards and 12 carries.
Outside of an 8-point win over Southern Illinois that could’ve scared some skeptics, the Wildcats have looked impressive against two very good teams. The 17-point win over the Stanford Cardinal at AT&T Stadium will remain solid for as long as the Cardinal stay somewhat relevant in the Pac-12.
Kansas State’s games, for the most part, have played to be expected. Hence why they come into Stillwater as a 6-point favorite even though Oklahoma State too comes in at 3-0 off an impressive one-point win over Boise State last week.
We’ve talked before about how Oklahoma State wasn’t an impressive 2-0 team heading on the road to face the Broncos. That win was as impressive as anything head coach Mike Gundy has accomplished in recent years. The Cowboys now have five straight wins and should see a bump toward the top 25 if their opponents go down this weekend.
Despite the struggles for Spencer Sanders -- 6-of-13, 82 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions -- he added a touchdown run to pace a dominant rushing attack led by Jaylen Warren’s 218 yards and two touchdowns for the Cowboys.
Prediction
The college football season is such a weird adventure that this game likely won’t matter in a few weeks. But right now, Kansas State has looked to be the better 3-0 team. We fell into this trap last week, and while that Boise State win was impressive, asking the Oklahoma State offense to replicate that one more time at home against a very good defense will not be easy. Don’t be surprised if the Wildcats narrowly escape with a win while covering at the same time. Kansas State by 2
Betting trends
Kansas State is 6-3 against the spread in its last nine as a road underdog.
Kansas State is 7-0 ATS in the following game after not committing a turnover the week prior.
Oklahoma State is 10-2 in its last 12 straight up as a home favorite.
Players to watch
Kansas State: While Deuce Vaughn is the workhorse in the backfield, don’t discount backup running back Joe Ervin. He’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has a touchdown on 131 yards
Oklahoma State: If the Cowboys find themselves throwing to stay in the game, Brennan Presley should see some targets opposite of Jaden Bray. The receiver has nine receptions this season while averaging 41.6 YPG through three games. He’s due for a touchdown if it resorts to that.
Statistical leaders
Kansas State:
Passing: Skylar Thompson -- 240 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Deuce Vaughn -- 371 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Phillip Brooks III -- 130 yards; Malik Knowles -- 125 yards
Defense: Khalid Duke -- 2 sacks
Oklahoma State:
Passing: Shane Illingworth -- 315 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Jaylen Warren -- 264 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Jaden Bray -- 136 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Brock Martin -- 2.5 sacks
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Kansas State - Oklahoma State prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NCAA projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
