by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Nov 09, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Baylor -2.5
FanDuel: Baylor -2.5
BetMGM: Baylor -2.5
Caesars: Baylor -2.5
Season record
No. 19 Kansas State: 6-3 (4-2 Big 12)
Baylor: 6-3 (4-2 Big 12)
We're coming down to the wire in what should be an exciting final month of the college football season. The conference championship chases are on, bowl games are to be decided, and who gets into the College Football Playoff is anybody's guess to this point. If you're still trying to figure out who's the best to play at this point of the year, look no further than our champion handicappers leading the way in the college football world. Our own Kyle Hunter is 23-8-0 over the last month, while Brian Bitler is 21-13-0 in the run. Kyle's reeled in a net profit of over $14,000. Now you feel like you should be getting on the action, huh? Make sure you go check out bigal.com to see all of the work our champion handicappers are trying to do to get money in YOUR pocket with our selections. Make sure to hit up our Best Bets page for more!
Kansas State - Baylor preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Kansas State: lost 34-27 vs. No. 24 Texas
Baylor: won 38-35 at Oklahoma
We’re running out of time in the Big 12 and we’re at the point where if a team is going to make a charge and hope that TCU falters at some point, it would be now. So to say this is a big game for both the Kansas State Wildcats and Baylor Bears might be an understatement.
We’re running out of time in the Big 12 and we’re at the point where if a team is going to make a charge and hope that TCU falters at some point, it would be now. So to say this is a big game for both the Kansas State Wildcats and Baylor Bears might be an understatement.
The Wildcats and Bears, both sitting at six wins and 4-2 in conference play, both need this game for the resume and whichever bowl game they end up getting. The Wildcats are coming off a 34-27 loss to No. 24 Texas, while Baylor has rattled off three straight wins, with two of them coming on the road against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.
Kansas State could not stop Texas running back Bijan Robinson (not like any team has been able to at this point this year), but it was evident on this day. Robinson gashed the Kansas State defense for 209 yards and a touchdown to offset the great performance Adrian Martinez had for K-State (329 yards, 2 TDs). But the defense just didn’t have an answer for the running game.
"The guys stayed in the fight," said Wildcats coach Chris Klieman, whose team hasn't beaten Texas since 2016. "When you are down that big at halftime, a lot of things can go wrong. It's a credit to the character and leadership in that room."
Kansas State dropped six spots in the College Football Playoff ranking by way of that loss, and it took a huge hit in the postseason part of things. But there’s still a chance to salvage what’s left of this season and get themselves a worthy bowl game. But, of course, that would require to knock off a Baylor team that’s gotten some good wins as of late.
After tough back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and West Virginia, the Bears find themselves back in bowl eligibility after three straight wins – one of them against a good Kansas club – to get to 6-3. The latest was last Saturday, going into Norman and knocking off the Sooners 38-35. Craig Williams was the star of the afternoon going for 192 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries to offset the rough day from quarterback Blake Shapen. Nevertheless, they were able to keep the Sooners at bay for the most part. The defense also picked off Oklahoma three times, so things are at least going right on that side of the ball.
"I've faced a lot of adversity in my career, and injuries come with the game, and I'm willing to take the risk to keep going out there and doing what I can to help this team win,” said Williams, the fifth-year junior.
"That's a great feeling. We're bowl eligible now, but that's not where we're stopping. We're still in the running for the Big 12 championship, and that's what we're looking forward to. Taking it one game at a time."
Prediction
Kansas State has fallen off, but this is the first time in a hot minute that Baylor is playing a quality quarterback that knows how to throw the football. Martinez, who seems like he’s been around forever, would probably tend to play these high-profile games. I’m here for it and I’m feeling frisky in the upset. Kansas State by 6
Betting trends
Kansas State is 18-12 ATS in the last three years.
Kansas State is 143-101 ATS since 1992 following a conference game.
Kansas State is 62-38 ATS off a conference loss since 1992.
Baylor is 20-11 ATS in the last three years.
Baylor is 11-4 ATS off an over the last three years.
Statistical leaders
Kansas State:
Passing: Adrian Martinez -- 1,236 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Deuce Vaughn -- 975 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Malik Knowles -- 540 yards, 1 TD
Baylor:
Passing: Blake Shapen -- 1,951 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Richard Reese -- 798 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Gavin Holmes -- 470 yards, 3 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Kansas State Wildcats - Baylor Bears prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
