Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears Prediction & Game Preview - 2/26/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Friday, Feb 25, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Ferrell Center, Waco, TX
Where to watch: ESPN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Check back later
BetMGM: Check back later
Caesars: Check back later

Season record
No. 5 Kansas: 23-4 (12-2 Big 12)
No. 10 Baylor: 23-5 (11-4 Big 12)

It's been a profitable month for Wayne Root on the college hardwood, going 41-32-0 over the last month and reeling in a profit of $6,060. March is fast approaching, as is your time to catch on these superb picks. Catch Wayne's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers

Kansas - Baylor preview and analysis


Kansas analysis


I honestly think this game would have carried more weight if the Baylor bears were not as lethargic as they've looked over the last couple of weeks.

Instead of discussing the defending national champions as the top team in the conference, we are over here talking about the Kansas Jayhawks once again establishing their own dominance for this season. And as a result, Kansas and Baylor will go at it on Saturday In a battle between two top ten teams and a Kansas victory will clinch them the regular season conference championship.

Since that disappointing loss to the Texas Longhorns back on February 7th, the Jayhawks have rallied off four straight wins, with three of them coming by double digits. The most recent one was perhaps their most dominant performance of the season. Kansas knocked down instate rival Kansas State by 19 points and Kansas eclipse the century mark.

Ochai Agbaji once again led the way with 23 points and seven rebounds to give Kansas their 11th win in 13 games. We've talked about it before here about Kansas and their ability to turn it on at the right time period and a lot of that has to do with bill self and how he's been able to get the most out of his team come tournament time.

And whether or not we fully believe that Kansas is deserving to be in the upper echelon with some of the top teams in the country remains to be seen, but you're starting to see the talent that is actually good enough to get Kansas that far. Agbaji is one of those guys that is absolutely of reason why we should take Kansas very seriously.

We also talk a lot about guys that we can see come March drive their teams to winning situations, and Kansas is definitely one of those teams with Agbaji because of his ability to not only get to the basket, but has a sweet midrange shot and is also capable of hitting the three with no problem.

Kansas has four games to go, including this one against Baylor on the road. Followed with a home and home against TCU and then the season finale against Texas, there is plethora of possibilities for Kansas to finish the season strong and to send some sort of statement heading into conference tournament time. Of all the top ten teams that are available right now, Kansas is definitely the one I’m intrigued by the most.

Baylor analysis


How much are we going to believe in the Baylor bears come tournament time? Because I feel like I jumped off many moons ago in following their potential repeat, and if there was any team that was capable of doing a repeat for the national championship it would be this team.

But over the last month and a half, I watch Baylor and I can't help but think this is a team that isn't ready for the big time right now, and that's saying something considering where they were a season ago. But it's the losses and it's the timely losses that just baffled me sometimes. 

We're talking about losses to Texas Tech, even though Texas Tech is now one of the top teams in the country, we're talking about losses too Kansas and dominant fashion we're talking about losses to Oklahoma State. It just seems like Baylor is not there right now and until we see a string of like four or five games that tells us that they are back, it's hard to believe in them.

I mean, let's be real. Oklahoma State is not a legitimate team, as evidence of being one game below 500. But Baylor had to rally from a first half deficit to eventually win the game in overtime, thanks to a rather long jump shot from James Akinjo.

Adam Flagler led Baylor with 29 points in what can only be described as a much needed win for the bears. And it was a good win, and I think that's where we are right now as a college basketball society is trying to figure out what is a good win and what isn't. Because Baylor had a few good wins surrounding their loss to Alabama and Kansas, but we haven't really determined if it's a good string or not. And the way Oklahoma State played them back in January, which was a victory for the Cowboys, for Baylor to come back on there Rd game and to win that game the way that they did was highly impressive.

But we look at Baylor now going into this home game against Kansas and we have to understand that this game is really Baylor season. Because Simply put, if Baylor loses to Kansas a second time, the odds on chances of them winning the third game are about as low as possible. Because on a neutral site, everything can change but when you have been humbled twice by one of the top teams in the country it's not a good look.

Baylor needs this game, or at least needs to keep this game close before things get rough going into March and I don't think it will get entirely bad, play it has a legitimate possibility to just come off the rails if it hasn't already. And I know I'm talking as if Baylor is one of these teams that is needing of wins in order to keep everybody job but that's what you expect from the defending national champions. And hopefully they can come to some sort of agreement and play one of their best games of the season.

Prediction


All of that being said, we have reached the point in the season where I think it's imperative to take the favorite as much as you possibly can. Even when it comes to top 10 matchups, there's just this underlying belief that Kansas will get the job done when called upon. It's been a strong team all season and they've been probably the most consistent team in the Big 12 this entire season. It wouldn't be a Kansas season without The Jayhawks winning the conference title, and while I think the big one will be coming in a matter of weeks, getting the first one out of the way will do just as well. Kansas by 6

Betting trends


The under is 21-9 in Kansas' last 30 road games.

Kansas is 6-0 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more against conference opponents.

Baylor is 27-12 ATS off an under.

Projected starting lineup


Kansas:
PG: Dajuan Harris Jr.
SG: Ochai Agbaji
SF: Christian Braun
PF: Jalen Wilson
C: David McCormack

Baylor:
PG: James Akinjo
SG: Adam Flagler
SF:
Matthew Mayer
PF:
Kendall Brown
C:
Flo Thamba

Statistical leaders

Kansas:
Points: Ochai Agbaji -- 20.2
Rebounds: Jalen Wilson -- 7.2
Assists: Dajuan Harris Jr. -- 4.2

Baylor:
Points: Adam Flagler -- 13.7
Rebounds: Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua -- 6.8
Assists: James Akinjo -- 5.7

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Kansas - Baylor prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2024 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.