by Chuck Sommers
Monday, May 02, 2022
Time: 1:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Where to watch: Bally Sports Kansas City, Bally Sports Midwest Extra
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Cardinals -170, Royals +150
BetMGM: Cardinals -175, Royals +145
Caesars: Cardinals -169, Royals +150
Season record
Royals: 7-13
Cardinals: 12-9
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Royals - Cardinals preview and analysis
It wasn’t the greatest weekend for the Kansas City Royals or the St. Louis Cardinals, especially when you consider the fact these series were at home and neither looked incredibly impressive. But I’m confident the Cardinals can bounce back just on the sole purpose that they’re at home and it’ll be easier to flush what happened this weekend down the toilet.
The Royals are coming off being swept at home in a three-game series against the New York Yankees, losing the finale 6-4 against the surging Bronx Bombers and their ninth straight win. Aaron Judge homered twice, and the Royals actually bles a 4-1 lead that was secured by the bottom of the fourth.
Michael Taylor homered for the Royals, but again, that blown lead was just a microcosm as to what has been a rough start to the year for Kansas City, losing 13 of its first 20 after what looked like a promising start with a breath of fresh air in Bobby Witt Jr. That, unfortunately, has been on delay because the offense – like every other team – has kind of dwindled at this point.
“The seventh has been the inning that has been biting us pretty hard,” Royals manager Mike Matheny said.
It wasn’t just the fact the Royals lost and got swept. They found different ways to lose all weekend to the Yankees. From a 12-2 loss in eight innings on Friday, to being held to no runs on Saturday, everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.
That’s been the overall theme for the Royals at a time where the offense really needs to rise. Andrew Benintendi is batting .366, which of course is great, but Salvador Perez is batting just .195 despite hitting five home runs. They would love to get going from that standpoint, while the pitching outside of Zack Greinke is not ideal. But we’ll see where it goes from here.
The Cardinals have also hit a speed bump as of late. While they have their own MVP candidate right now in Nolan Arenado and has a solid pitching rotation, the Cardinals are hitting a snag now at 12-9 through the first month of the season.
And while the Cardinals are coming off a 7-5 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, the fact of the matter is they ended up getting just a four-game split against Arizona. Now, to be fair: Arizona is playing so much better through a month than I think anyone would’ve anticipated.
But they got the win, Arenado homered, as did Harrison Bader, for the victory. Even at a 12-9 start, this group has a ton of people that can smash the baseball.
“That was a really big win for us all,” Bader said. “Arizona just kept fighting back and putting themselves ahead, but we just stuck with it. Like I said, we really earned that one.”
Prediction
Greinke is expected to get the call against Steven Matz, and while the travel might not be as bad, I think it’s a perfect opportunity for the Cardinals to get back on the saddle and build some momentum. Cardinals win 6-2
Betting trends
The Royals are 30-50 the past three years as an underdog of +150 or more.
Royals are 20-39 the past three seasons as a road dog of +150 or more.
Cardinals are 42-33 as a home favorite the past three seasons.
Cardinals are 20-19 against AL Central teams the last three seasons.
Projected lineup
Royals:
Nicky Lopez (L) SS
Whit Merrifield (R) 2B
Andrew Benintendi (L) LF
Salvador Perez (R) DH
Carlos Santana (S) 1B
Emmanuel Rivera (R) 3B
Kyle Isbel (L) RF
Michael A. Taylor (R) CF
Cam Gallagher (R) C
SP - Zack Greinke
Nicky Lopez (L) SS
Whit Merrifield (R) 2B
Andrew Benintendi (L) LF
Salvador Perez (R) DH
Carlos Santana (S) 1B
Emmanuel Rivera (R) 3B
Kyle Isbel (L) RF
Michael A. Taylor (R) CF
Cam Gallagher (R) C
SP - Zack Greinke
Cardinals:
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Harrison Bader (R) CF
Tyler O'Neill (R) LF
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Albert Pujols (R) 1B
Corey Dickerson (L) DH
Dylan Carlson (S) RF
Andrew Knizner (R) C
Paul DeJong (R) SS
SP - Steven Matz
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Harrison Bader (R) CF
Tyler O'Neill (R) LF
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Albert Pujols (R) 1B
Corey Dickerson (L) DH
Dylan Carlson (S) RF
Andrew Knizner (R) C
Paul DeJong (R) SS
SP - Steven Matz
Statistical leaders
Royals:
Batting average: Andrew Benintendi -- .366
Hits: Andrew Benintendi -- 26
Home runs: Salvador Perez -- 5
RBI: Andrew Benintendi -- 10
Wins: Three tied -- 2
Saves: Josh Staumont -- 2
ERA: Brad Keller -- 2.19
Cardinals:
Batting average: Nolan Arenado -- .368
Hits: Nolan Arenado -- 28
Home runs: Nolan Arenado -- 6
RBI: Nolan Arenado -- 18
Wins: Four tied -- 2
Saves: Giovanny Gallegos -- 4
ERA: Miles Mikolas -- 1.52
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
