Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 12/25/2024

by Rod Pearson

Monday, Dec 23, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Wednesday, December 25, 2024
Venue:  Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch:  Netflix


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Chiefs -2.5, Steelers +2.5; Over/Under:  43 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Chiefs -2.5, Steelers +2.5; Over/Under:  42.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Chiefs -2.5, Steelers +2.5; Over/Under:  42.5 points

Season Record

Kansas City Chiefs:  14-1 (1st place, AFC West)
Pittsburgh Steelers:  10-5 (1st place, AFC North)

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Recent Form
Kansas City Chiefs:  won their last game at home against the Houston Texans 27-19.
Pittsburgh Steelers:  lost their last game on the road against the Baltimore Ravens 34-17.


Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview and Analysis


The Chiefs are entering this game with a 14-1 record overall and they have a 5-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 8-0 in their home games, 6-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Houston Texans 27-19. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 28/41 passes for 260 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing yards with 55 and 1 TD. Xavier Worthy led the receivers with 65 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Drue Tranquill led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Joshua Williams and Mike Pennel each led the defense in sacks with 1. Trent McDuffie and Jaden Hicks each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
 
 
 
The Steelers are entering this game with a 10-5 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 5-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 34-17. Russell Wilson was the starting QB and he completed 22/33 passes for 217 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jaylen Warren led the team in rushing yards with 48. Calvin Austin III led the receivers with 65 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Damontae Kazee led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Alex Highsmith led the defense in sacks with 1. Minkah Fitzpatrick came away with the only interception for them in that one.


Chiefs vs Steelers Prediction

The current betting odds have the Chiefs listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chiefs have looked great in their games this season with their 14-1 record overall which leads the AFC West with the best record in the entire NFL. They are coming off a 27-19 win over the Texans in their last one and they have started to look a lot better in their last 2 games after a series of ugly wins. Meanwhile, the Steelers have looked good in their games this season with their 10-5 record overall which leads the AFC North, but they just lost a big game to the Ravens which could be costly. The Steelers still have the lead in the division for now, but they didn't look good in their loss to the Ravens and now they have lost 2 games in a row to good opponents, losing to the Eagles the week before too. Their offense just hasn't looked as good with Pickens out and they haven't been running the ball well either. The Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season and they have been tough to run the ball against so the Steelers aren't going to do much on offense here, and they can't really rely on their defense to win the game with Mahomes on the other side. The Chiefs have been finding ways to win ugly games all season, but now they are starting to look a lot better while the Steelers are folding so this will be another game that the Chiefs find a way to win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game. 

Chiefs Steelers Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Wednesday, December 25, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Chiefs 24 Steelers 16.
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NFL Betting Trends


Kansas City Chiefs: 14-5 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 4-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 6-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 29-17 UNDER as a favorite. 8-3 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 14-7 UNDER off a home win.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 19-31 1H ATS in all games. 8-15 1H ATS in home games. 8-17 1H ATS after playing their last game on the road. 12-4 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 17-8 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. 6-1 UNDER after a 2 game road trip.

Key Injuries


Kansas City Chiefs:  C. Conner (DB) Out - Concussion. C. Humphrey (C) Injured - Ankle. P. Mahomes (QB) Injured - Ankle. H. Brown (WR) Injured - Shoulder. D. Humphries (OT) Out - Hamstring. H. Butker (K) Injured - Knee. J. Taylor (T) Injured - Knee.

Pittsburgh Steelers:  D. Elliott (SAF) Out - Hamstring. D. Jackson (CB) Questionable - Back. J. Fields (QB) Out - Abdominal. E. Roberts (LB) Injured - NIR - Rest. P. Queen (LB) Injured - NIR-Rest. G. Pickens (WR) Out - Hamstring. T. Watt (LB) Injured - Ankle. L. Ogunjobi (DT) Questionable - Groin. C. Heyward (DT) Injured - NIR - Rest.

Notable Quotes


“He spoils the dog out of us, he's so tough. You get used to it. But most guys don't come back from that like he did.” - Andy Reid on Patrick Mahomes after his team’s win against the Texans in their last game. 


“We didn’t control the run game. We never did. When you don’t, you’ve got to do some splash plays or win the turnover battle in a significant way, and we didn’t do that either. There were some balls on the ground that we didn’t get. Then obviously we turned the ball over going in -- it took seven points off the board -- and they had a pick-6. The rest is history, as they say.” - Mike Tomlin after his team’s loss against the Ravens in their last game. 


Starting Lineups


Kansas City Chiefs
WR Hopkins, Deandre 
WR Brown, Hollywood
WR Worthy, Xavier
TE Kelce, Travis 
QB Mahomes, Patrick 
RB Pacheco, Isiah

Pittsburgh Steelers
WR Williams, Mike
WR Jefferson, Van 
WR Austin III, Calvin
TE Freiermuth, Pat
QB Wilson, Russell 
RB Harris, Najee 
FB Heyward, Connor

Statistical Leaders


Kansas City Chiefs
Passing: P. Mahomes (3348)
Rushing: K. Hunt (653)
Receiving: T. Kelce (709)
Touchdowns: X. Worthy (7)

Pittsburgh Steelers
Passing: R. Wilson (2129)
Rushing: N. Harris (933)
Receiving: G. Pickens (850)
Touchdowns: P. Freiermuth (6)

Coaches:
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (12th season)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Tomlin (18th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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