by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Jan 05, 2023
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Where to watch: ESPN/ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Chiefs -9.5; Chiefs -435, Raiders +350; O/U 52.5
FanDuel: Chiefs -9.5; Chiefs -450, Raiders +350; O/U 52.5
BetMGM: Chiefs -9.5; Chiefs -450, Raiders +333; O/U 52.5
Caesars: Chiefs -9.5; Chiefs -455, Raiders +345; O/U 52.5
Season record
Chiefs: 13-3 (Clinched AFC West)
Raiders: 6-10 (Eliminated from contention)
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Chiefs - Raiders preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Chiefs: won 27-24 vs. Broncos
Raiders: lost 37-34 (OT) vs. 49ers
Chiefs analysis
You would’ve liked to hope that this game would have more on the line heading into the final week of the regular season, but pending on what happens between Buffalo and Cincinnati, there’s still something at play for the Kansas City Chiefs with the No. 1 seed in the AFC still intact.
But however, or how long, the Chiefs get there will still not downplay the fact they are 9-1 in their last 10 but have been abysmal going just 2-7-1 on the books including just a 27-24 win over the Denver Broncos last week in which they were 13.5-point favorites.
The Chiefs have not been able to be trusted on the books and that’s what makes them an ill-advised play come playoff time. Games are going to be tighter, especially if they face the likes of the Bengals and Bills in the next couple of rounds. But this is a game for Patrick Mahomes to cement the MVP if he wants it. Mahomes has thrown for 5,048 yards and 40 touchdowns, both tops among quarterbacks.
Mahomes has been incredible in a year where a dropoff was expected from the Chiefs’ quarterback after the team traded Tyreek Hill to Miami. While the receiver has flourished this year, Mahomes has proven that he can play with anybody and be just as effective and dangerous. Also, consider this sample size of a season with a 16-game season. Mahomes would still throw up an MVP season regardless. It’s truly incredible.
But with everything to play for against a Raiders team trying to play spoiler, this seems like the perfect time to capitalize on the Chiefs laying the points.
Raiders analysis
The Las Vegas Raiders nearly had a chance at the playoffs within their grasp with Jarrett Stidham leading the way. But of course, with the way the Raiders’ season has gone, nothing is surprising with the way this season was fumbled. That includes many blown double-digit leads, wasting all-pro seasons from Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, and showing Josh McDaniels can’t coach his way around a paper bag.
And yet people wonder why the city of Las Vegas doesn’t take this team seriously. For all the additions the Raiders made this year, defense is still a problem, they don’t have the quarterback situation figured out, and now they have to sit through one more home game as if that’s going to solve anything.
For what it’s worth, Stidham played very well against the San Francisco 49ers with 365 yards and three touchdowns, but two interceptions doomed them when it mattered most. The Raiders covered as 10-point dogs in the 37-34 overtime loss this past Sunday for their fourth cover in six games. That’s about the only good the Raiders have provided in this time.
Other than what’s bound to be a very weird offseason for the Raiders, uncertainty abounds. But if you’ve ever wanted to see what a true circus looks like in the offseason, pay attention to the surroundings in Las Vegas. It’s about to get wild.
Prediction
The Chiefs have been awful, but facing a defense that is likely to give up a ton from Mahomes, I wouldn’t put it past the Chiefs to run away with this one and put the Raiders out of their misery for good. Chiefs 31, Raiders 14
Betting trends
Chiefs are 37-19 ATS after failing to cover in 4 out of 5 since 1992.
Chiefs are 0-6 ATS as a road favorite between 7.5 and 14 the last 3 seasons.
Raiders are 9-21 ATS at home when the total is greater than 49.5 since 1992.
Raiders are 22-41 ATS when revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Chiefs:
Passing: Patrick Mahomes – 5,048 yards, 40 TD, 12 INT
Rushing: Isiah Pacheco – 766 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Travis Kelce – 104 catches, 1,300 yards, 12 TD
Defense: Chris Jones – 13 sacks
Raiders:
Passing: Derek Carr – 3,522 yards, 24 TD, 14 INT
Rushing: Josh Jacobs – 1,608 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Davante Adams – 1,443 yards, 14 TD
Defense: Maxx Crosby – 11.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
