by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Dec 29, 2021
Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Chiefs -5; O/U 50.5; Chiefs -210, Bengals +175
BetMGM: Chiefs -5; O/U 50; Chiefs -227, Bengals +190
Caesars: Chiefs -5; O/U 49.5; Chiefs -233, Bengals +190
Season record
Chiefs: 11-4 (Clinched AFC West)
Bengals: 9-6 (1st place, AFC North)
It was a good seven days for Will Rogers going 5-3-0 after what was an uncertain week of make-or-break games. Two weeks left in the regular season before the fun begins. You should be at the ready at all times. Catch Will’s plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Chiefs - Bengals preview and analysis
Last week
Chiefs: won 36-10 vs. Steelers
Bengals: won 41-21 vs. Ravens
Your game of the week in the AFC is about to be a hoot.
Your game of the week in the AFC is about to be a hoot.
The Cincinnati Bengals can clinch the AFC North for the first time since 2015 with a victory against the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs at home. In turn, the Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win and a Tennessee Titans loss.
And it’s on during the 10 a.m. PT window. What a time to be alive.
The Chiefs are returning the postseason yet again after clinching the AFC West for the sixth straight season last week with a 36-10 win at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Patrick Mahomes continued his scorching run during the Chiefs’ eight-game winning streak, throwing for 258 yards and three touchdowns.
After throwing nine interceptions through his first seven games, Mahomes has turned the turnovers down a few notches with just four during the winning streak. In turn, he’s thrown 15 touchdowns with eight coming in the last three weeks.
"The guys all played together, which I don't think you can avoid talking about," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. "The way they supported each other when there was a problem, when something didn't work — everybody just hung together."
The biggest change in the second half for the Chiefs has been defense. In their first seven games, the Chiefs defense gave up 29 points per game and staring in the barrel of a 3-4 start. In the last eight, which includes three straight of giving up just nine points each, has allowed 12.8 points during this win streak.
Which almost seems like the perfect storm coming along after Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns in the Bengals’ 41-21 series-sweep victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week. It was the fourth most passing yards in a game in NFL history, and the former No. 1 pick has already three 400-yard passing games in his career, tied with Dan Marino for the most by a player in his first two seasons.
Ja’Marr Chase had his fourth 100-yard game this season on a 7-catch, 125-yard performance, and Tee Higgins had a career-high 194 yards and two touchdowns on 12 receptions.
"We're right where we want to be," Burrow said. "We knew we had a chance to be in this position in training camp. We knew the kind of team we had. You couldn't ask for a better situation right now. We control our destiny. Win these next two games, and we've got the division locked."
The Bengals have been streaky straight up, as well as the spread. They’re 4-4 in their last eight; every win has been a cover, every loss has been an ATS defeat. The Chiefs were 0-2 ATS in their first two of the win streak, but have since won six straight while being double-digit favorites in two of the last three.
Prediction
I love the underdog in this situation. History tells us that Cincinnati in December has never gone well. It’s been a long time since the Bengals had so much to be excited about, and it starts with that quarterback. Burrow may not outplay Mahomes for a full 60 minutes, but the confidence he oozes is infectious. And the Bengals, for whatever reason, just seem like a good play. There may not be a lot to do in Cincinnati but there will be celebrating. Bengals by 3
Betting trends
The Chiefs are 8-7 ATS this season as a favorite and 26-21 over the past three seasons.
The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS this season after allowing 14 points or less the prior game.
The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons following six straight wins against the spread.
The Bengals are 1-5 ATS this season following an over.
The Bengals are 32-16 ATS since 1992 after leading their last game by at least 14 points at the half.
Players to watch
Chiefs: Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a rushing touchdown last week, giving him a rushing score in two of the past three games.
Bengals: Defensive end Trey Hendrickson has registered at least a half-sack in 11 straight games. He's the second player since 1982 to reach that feat; Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones reached that feat in 2018.
Statistical leaders
Chiefs:
Passing: Patrick Mahomes -- 4,310 yards, 33 TD, 13 INT
Rushing: Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- 517 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Tyreek Hill -- 1,197 yards, 9 TD
Defense: Chris Jones -- 7 sacks
Bengals:
Passing: Joe Burrow -- 4,165 yards, 30 TD, 14 INT
Rushing: Joe Mixon -- 1,159 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Ja'Marr Chase -- 1,163 yards, 10 TD
Defense: Trey Hendrickson -- 14 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
