by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Nov 14, 2024
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, November 17, 2024
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Chiefs +2, Bills -2; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Chiefs +2, Bills -2; Over/Under: 46 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Chiefs +2.5, Bills -2.5; Over/Under: 46 points
Season Record
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-0 (1st place, AFC West)
Buffalo Bills: 8-2 (1st place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Kansas City Chiefs: won their last game at home against the Denver Broncos 16-14.
Buffalo Bills: won their last game on the road against the Indianapolis Colts 30-20.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Preview and Analysis
The Chiefs are entering this game with a 9-0 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 4-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Denver Broncos 16-14. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 28/42 passes for 266 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing yards with 35. Kareem Hunt led the receivers with 65 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Nazeeh Johnson led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Nazeeh Johnson and Nick Bolton each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Bills are entering this game with an 8-2 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Indianapolis Colts 30-20. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 22/37 passes for 280 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 80 and 1 TD. Mack Hollins led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Dorian Williams led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Greg Rousseau, Taron Johnson, A.J. Epenesa, and Quinton Jefferson each led the defense in sacks with 1. Taylor Rapp, Taron Johnson, and Austin Johnson each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked really good in their games this season with their 8-2 record overall which has them leading the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They started the season 3-0 and then lost 2 games, but they have looked great since then with 5 wins in a row now and a ton of momentum on their side. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have also looked great in their games this season with their 9-0 record overall which has them leading the AFC West with the best record in the entire NFL. They are the only undefeated team left in the NFL this season, but they are coming off a really tight game which they probably should have lost. They are coming off a 16-14 loss to the Broncos in their last one and that was a game that the Broncos were going to win with a field goal in the dying seconds of the game, but the Chiefs blocked it to keep their undefeated season alive. The Chiefs haven't looked great in their games lately though, playing in a lot of tighter games the longer this streak goes on, and their offense hasn't looked great all season either. The Bills have looked a lot better in their home games this year with their 4-0 home record and they have had success against the Chiefs in the regular season in recent years. This streak looks like it is about to come to an end for the Chiefs after the way they won last week and the Bills are the kind of team that can deliver them their first loss of the season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Chiefs Bills Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 17, 2024 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Bills 27 Chiefs 24.
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NFL Betting Trends
Kansas City Chiefs: 8-1 ATS as an underdog. 13-4 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 12-5 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 11-6 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 11-3 UNDER after playing a division game. 12-2 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points.
Buffalo Bills: 6-11 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 5-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 12-4 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 12-7 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record. 5-2 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season.
Key Injuries
Kansas City Chiefs: D. Hopkins (WR) Injured - Knee. C. Omenihu (DE) Injured - Knee. I. Pacheco (RB) Injured - Ankle. W. Morris (OL) Injured - Knee. G. Karlaftis (DE) Injured - Abdomen. M. Hardman (WR) Injured - Shoulder. K. Hunt (RB) Injured - Knee. P. Mahomes (QB) Injured - Ankle. J. Smith-Schuster (WR) Injured - Hamstring. D. Nnadi (DT) Injured - Triceps. M. Danna (DE) Injured - Pectoral.
Buffalo Bills: M. Milano (LB) Injured - Biceps. C. Toohill (DE) Injured - Knee. K. Elam (CB) Injured - Shoulder. K. Coleman (WR) Injured - Wrist. C. Samuel (WR) Injured - Pectoral. A. Cooper (WR) Injured - Wrist. D. Jones (DT) Injured - Foot. M. Hollins (WR) Injured - Shoulder. J. Allen (QB) Injured - Left Hand. T. Bernard (LB) Injured - Ankle. Q. Morris (TE) Injured - Shoulder. R. Gilliam (FB) Injured - Hip. T. Rapp (SAF) Injured - Foot. D. Williams (LB) Injured - Knee. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Knee. S. Brown (T) Injured - Ankle. C. Benford (CB) Injured - Wrist.
Notable Quotes
“We did but it's also something we work on like crazy. It normally doesn't work quite like that one.” - Andy Reid after his team’s win against the Broncos in their last game.
“I thought the defense, the takeaways was a big-time difference in the game. I think they’re just a very competitive group, they take a lot of pride in not letting each other down.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Colts in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Kansas City Chiefs
WR Hopkins, Deandre
WR Smith-Schuster, JuJu
WR Worthy, Xavier
TE Kelce, Travis
QB Mahomes, Patrick
RB Hunt, Kareem
Buffalo Bills
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Samuel, Curtis
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Statistical Leaders
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing: P. Mahomes (2208)
Rushing: K. Hunt (449)
Receiving: T. Kelce (499)
Touchdowns: X. Worthy (5)
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (2281)
Rushing: J. Cook (576)
Receiving: K. Shakir (529)
Touchdowns: J. Cook (9)
Coaches:
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (12th season)
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
