June Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

As we reach the final days of the month of June, the sample sizes are now large enough to identify the starters whose impressive surface numbers are telling a very different story than the underlying data. These four National League pitchers have delivered results that are simply unlikely to hold as the second half approaches.

Cristopher Sanchez – Philadelphia Phillies

There is no question that Cristopher Sanchez is a legitimate ace. His 2025 campaign was one of the best in the National League and he has been brilliant again in stretches this season. None of that changes the reality that his current numbers have been significantly aided by sequencing fortune. His 1.54 ERA reflects a nearly 84 percent strand rate that simply will not hold, and the gap between his surface ERA and his 2.77 xERA creates a trade price today that significantly exceeds what his ERA will look like by August. His hard-hit rate of 42.9 percent and average exit velocity of 89.3 mph against suggests that hitters are making meaningful contact at a rate that his ERA has not yet reflected. Sanchez has the groundball profile and elite command to remain a top-of-rotation arm, and his underlying skills are genuine. But at his current surface ERA, betting him at inflated prices is making a transaction the data does not support. His ERA will likely move back toward his xERA before the season is over, and the gap between where he sits now and where he lands will be significant enough to matter. The correction may already be underway with 20 hits and 10 runs allowed in his last three starts after allowing just five runs combined in his prior eight outings. 

Zack Wheeler – Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season on the surface, and at 36 years old coming off thoracic outlet surgery, the performance has drawn enormous attention. The problem is the same one that accompanies every great-looking ERA: the supporting numbers tell a more complicated story. Wheeler carries a 2.03 ERA and a 2.95 xERA, and his strand rate is nearly 90 percent, and sustaining a LOB rate above 85 percent over a full season is nearly impossible. There is also the matter of defensive support. His current ERA-FIP differential is substantially explained by an elite infield defense and if you add back the nine runs his defense has saved him, his ERA climbs from 2.03 to 3.11. Wheeler is still a very good pitcher, and the underlying contact profile is not alarming. But the combination of an unsustainable strand rate and exceptional defensive fortune means his ERA is going to be at risk for correction and anyone laying significant juice on him based on the current number is buying at the peak. 

Scott Drohan – Milwaukee Brewers

Scott Drohan has been one of the more intriguing stories of the first half, finding his footing in Milwaukee's rotation after arriving from Boston via trade. The 27-year-old left-hander has flashed real swing-and-miss ability and legitimate upside, but the metrics beneath his impressive line demand scrutiny before treating him as a reliable commodity. His seven percent HR/FB rate spells regression coming and with a mid-3.12 ERA, higher numbers may be likely to come. The Brewers have done an excellent job managing his workload given that he is coming off a stretch where he logged barely 70 combined innings over two seasons, and that cautious deployment has kept him fresh, but it has also meant shorter outings that inflate his rate statistics. Drohan has the stuff to be a legitimate mid-rotation contributor for Milwaukee, but bettors treating his current line as a reflection of what he truly is could find the second half a rude correction. 

Randy Vasquez – San Diego Padres

Vasquez has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the NL this season on the surface, and the Padres have relied on him heavily in the middle of a rotation that has had its share of questions. The 27-year-old right-hander has shown real improvement in his walk rate in 2026, and that improvement is legitimate. Everything else surrounding his surface ERA deserves significant skepticism. This is a pitcher whose 2025 ERA finished more than a full run below both his 5.51 xFIP and 5.43 SIERA, propped up by a low BABIP and a 77.4 percent strand rate and his 4.6 percent K/BB percentage ranked third-lowest among all pitchers with at least 130 innings. Nothing in his profile suggested he had solved the underlying problem, and the 2026 contact quality data confirms that concern. His average exit velocity against sits at 91.4 mph with a hard-hit rate of 45.7 percent, a wOBA of .348, and an xwOBA of .385 and his barrel rate of 13 percent is among the worst marks of any NL starter. Those are the numbers of a pitcher getting consistently hammered, and the gap between his ERA and what the contact quality suggests is due to narrow in a hurry. His most-used pitch, the cutter, has historically been his most hittable offering, yielding a .447 slugging percentage in 2025 and there is little evidence that has changed structurally in 2026. Vasquez is a viable backend starter on a contending team, but any number he posts this season below 4.00 is living on borrowed time. Fade him accordingly, particularly in road starts and against lineups with the patience to work counts and punish premium contact.