by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Sep 09, 2022
Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Commanders -2.5
FanDuel: Commanders -2.5
BetMGM: Commanders -2.5
Caesars: Commanders -2.5
2021 season record
Jaguars: 3-14
Commanders: 7-10
A new NFL season is here and what a start we're off to with Buffalo going to the champs' house and knocking them in the mouth. What can we expect when the full slate of games gets rolling on Sunday? Only one way to find out: Get to bigal.com and check out what our champion handicappers are thinking heading into these matchups, and also get the right amount in your pocket for your winnings.
Jaguars - Commanders preview, analysis and prediction
Depending on where you sit on the spectrum with the Jacksonville Jaguars, I think we can safely say that anything better than three wins is acceptable. Any sign of improvement to some sort of acceptance in the NFL realm is fair. Anything that shows a sign of life in the second year of the Trevor Lawrence era is also good.
The Doug Pederson era begins on Sunday when the Jaguars take on the Washington Commanders, in what is also the first game post-Washington Football Team era, and what might be an important start for both franchises looking to make a splash.
The Commanders are a football team now with an actual name. They have time to figure out what exactly they’re doing, even if that means Carson Wentz is the quarterback of this team, which also makes absolutely no sense.
This is more about the Jaguars, who are re-tooling around Lawrence and have the chance to present a dynamic offense in Pederson’s debut. The Super Bowl-winning coach joins Jacksonville after a horrendous Doug Marrone tenure. Pederson and his prolific offensive mind (that the Jaguars hopefully hope wasn’t a one-time thing) come to Jacksonville with a chance to take hold of an AFC South that makes no sense right now.
But everything comes down to the arm of Lawrence, entering his second year and hopefully with an offensive line that won’t get him killed and force him to run for his life on a weekly basis. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick led all rookies with 359 completions and threw for 3,641 yards. Now, he has an offense with a breakout star in Christian Kirk and a dynamic tight end in Evan Engram.
“I really like where I’m at,” Lawrence said. “As far as offense goes, I feel really comfortable. I’m feeling more and more confident each day and feel really good with where I’m at with all the receivers, tight ends, running backs, protection.”
It’s not often teams get the No. 1 pick in back-to-back years, but that’s what happened with the Jaguars. After a 3-14 campaign, the Jaguars decided this time to address the defensive side of the ball and take Georgia defensive end, Travon Walker, with the No. 1 pick. He’ll make his debut and put together a formidable pass rush duo with Josh Allen.
But this tends to happen with Jacksonville. They draft well, they get some marquee names in free agency, but somehow things never add up. Perhaps with Lawrence at the helm, things will be different than in years past. One key name that will help in that is running back James Robinson, who could be back on a snap count after suffering an Achilles injury last year.
There might be no better opponent to test this new-look Jags roster against than a Washington team that, again, has Carson Wentz at quarterback. Talk about a fall from grace, there was once a thought he’d be the future in Philadelphia, with Pederson of all people! Never in this lifeline would that have been thought.
However, there is this belief within the Washington complex that Wentz is actually loved here. Head coach Ron Rivera told him himself that he’s wanted.
“He has stabilized that position for us,” general manager Martin Mayhew said. “We’re excited about what he brings to the table in terms of his physical talent and also what he brings to the table as a person, as a leader.”
We could probably laugh at that, but realistically, this is the best Washington can do for quite a while.
Prediction
The Jaguars getting 2.5 is such a good value. While recent results don’t bode well for the Jags – they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six when the line is between +3 and -3 – the Commanders are 44-75 ATS since 1992 as a home favorite. That is horrendous, and it doesn’t matter if the Jaguars have been bad the past few years. This should be, technically, an upset win. Jaguars by 10
Betting trends
Jaguars are 40-66 ATS in non-conference games in their history.
Under is 8-1 in Jaguars' last nine non-conference games.
Commanders are 66-103 ATS as a favorite since 1992.
Commanders are 8-8 ATS at home the past three years.
2021 statistical leaders
Jaguars
Passing: Trevor Lawrence -- 3,641 yards, 12 TD, 17 INT
Rushing: James Robinson -- 767 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Marvin Jones Jr. -- 832 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Josh Allen -- 7.5 sacks
Commanders
Passing: Taylor Heinicke -- 3,419 yards, 20 TD, 15 INT
Rushing: Antonio Gibson -- 1,037 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Terry McLaurin -- 1,053 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Jonathan Allen -- 9 sacks
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Jacksonville Jaguars - Washington Commanders prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
