by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Dec 28, 2021
Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Patriots -15.5
BetMGM: Patriots -15.5
Caesars: Patriots -15.5
Season record
Jaguars: 2-13 (Last place, AFC South)
Patriots: 9-6 (2nd place, AFC East)
It was a good seven days for Will Rogers going 5-3-0 after what was an uncertain week of make-or-break games. Two weeks left in the regular season before the fun begins. You should be at the ready at all times. Catch Will’s plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Jaguars - Patriots preview and analysis
Last week
Jaguars: lost 26-21 at Jets
Patriots: lost 33-21 vs. Bills
Even when the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing well, they still can’t win. Such is life of a rebuilding team, and with two weeks to go, there’s potential for a very rough end to the season.
Much like a Week 17 matchup with the New England Patriots in what’s now a must-win game for Bill Belichick’s group. Things don’t appear to get easy for Jacksonville any time soon.
But let’s start with the Patriots, because that’s where the importance lies. The Patriots had a chance to be within striking distance of the AFC East, but lost 33-21 to the Buffalo Bills.
As a result, Buffalo now holds first place via tiebreaker and the Patriots dropped to sixth in the AFC. The Patriots are still firmly in a wild-card spot and a game ahead of the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers, but are behind the Indianapolis Colts via tiebreaker for the No. 5 spot.
Rookie quarterback Mac Jones threw for just 145 yards and two interceptions on 14 of 32 passing. Damien Harris did the leg work, literally, with 103 yards and three touchdowns on 18 carries, but the defense ran out of gas for as much time it was on the field. Josh Allen threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns.
“We just need to execute better. It really wasn’t our day,” Jones said. “There’s no excuses.”
The Patriots accounted for only 288 total yards and two turnovers while having the ball 10 minutes less than the Bills. New England has lost two straight after winning seven in a row, with losses to the Colts and Bills. New England wraps up the season against the Jaguars at home and a potentially red-hot Miami Dolphins team that could alter the playoff picture as we know it.
But the good news for the Patriots is the Jaguars are being themselves. Jacksonville was denied a third win via a goal-line stand from the New York Jets, losing 26-21 in the battle of the top-two picks in this year’s NFL Draft. Zach Wilson outdueled Trevor Lawrence by a hair; Lawrence threw for 280 yards but didn’t have any touchdowns or interceptions. Wilson had 193 total yards, including a 52-yard touchdown run.
“Even though we loss,” said Jaguars corner Shaquill Griffin, “I definitely feel the momentum is going in the right direction.”
Every Jags fan has said that for that past 20 years.
Jacksonville has lost six straight against the spread with the Jets game being the closest margin (2.5 points). Four of the previous five was decided by double digits even with the Jags getting a plethora of points. New England, much like its straight-up record, has gone 0-2 ATS in the past two weeks.
Prediction
The Patriots open as high as 15.5-point favorites and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. As much as the Jaguars hanging around would be a good story, we’ve seen what Belichick’s defense can do against rookie quarterbacks. Lawrence is in for a long day. Patriots by 21
Betting trends
The Jaguars are 16-24 ATS as an underdog in their last 40.
The Jaguars are 4-14 ATS off a road loss over the past three seasons.
The Patriots are 1-5 ATS against AFC South opponents over the past three seasons.
The Patriots are 50-23 ATS since 1992 after allowing 30 points or more the previous game.
Players to watch
Jaguars: Wide receiver Marvin Jones led Jacksonville with eight receptions for 74 yards against the Jets.
Patriots: Expect another heavy dose of Damien Harris after his 103-yard, 3-touchdown day. His 12 rushing touchdowns on the season are 4th most in the NFL.
Statistical leaders
Jaguars:
Passing: Trevor Lawrence – 3,225 yards, 9 TD, 14 INT
Rushing: James Robinson – 767 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Marvin Jones Jr. – 698 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Damien Wilson – 99 tackles
Patriots:
Passing: Mac Jones – 3,313 yards, 18 TD, 12 INT
Rushing: Damien Harris – 857 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Jakobi Meyers – 723 yards, 1 TD
Defense: J.C. Jackson – 7 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
