by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 21, 2022
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: TCU -10.5
FanDuel: TCU -9.5
BetMGM: TCU -10.5
Caesars: TCU -9.5
Season record
Iowa State: 4-7 (1-7 Big 12)
No. 4 TCU: 11-0 (8-0 Big 12)
The college football fun never stops and we're inching closer to conference championship season. A lot of big games are still to be determined in who will play whom and where, and our top-notch handicappers have been at the forefront for the last month or so providing you with the winners you need to head into December with some confidence in your pocket. How can you be so sure? Of course you have to look at the likes of Kyle Hunter going 19-6-0 over the last 30 days, as well as Will Rogers at 22-13-0 over the last month. What about Vegas Writer? He's sitting at 14-7-1 over the last 30 days since joining our team of champion handicappers that has been killing it everywhere this year. You see the success rate. You need to be on board to join our guys who can get you where you need to go for the homestretch of the college football season. Make sure you're keeping tabs here at bigal.com to find out what our champion handicappers are thinking in all sports!
Iowa State - TCU preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Iowa State: lost 14-10 vs. Texas Tech
TCU: lost 29-28 at Baylor
The last two weeks were supposed to be the litmus test for the TCU horned frogs. The last two weeks were supposed to be the measuring stick games four if TCU deserved a chance at the College Football Playoff. Safe to say seeing that TCU is still 11-0 going into the final week of the regular season, mission accomplished. And now as a result, TCU finds itself one went away from an undefeated regular season, and two wins away from going to the playoff.
The last two weeks were supposed to be the litmus test for the TCU horned frogs. The last two weeks were supposed to be the measuring stick games four if TCU deserved a chance at the College Football Playoff. Safe to say seeing that TCU is still 11-0 going into the final week of the regular season, mission accomplished. And now as a result, TCU finds itself one went away from an undefeated regular season, and two wins away from going to the playoff.
The only thing standing in TCU's way at this moment is the final regular season game against the Iowa State Cyclones. Now, before this gets thrown out of ridiculous proportion, allow me to say this: TCU is going to win this game. There is not a doubt in my mind that this offense will pick it up behind the home crowd and TCU should win this game. But I would not be so quick to dismiss Iowa State.
You look at Iowa State and see the 4-7 record, you see the 1-7 conference record, and you're thinking to yourself how in the world could this team possibly keep things close against TCU? Iowa State has lost almost every single game by one score. If they had found ways to win these games, Iowa State might be the ones challenging TCU for the conference championship. As it stands right now that's not going to happen obviously. But if you look at Iowa State and the schedule that it is had this year there have been so many missed opportunities that could have gone in its favor. Even so much as last week losing 14-10 to Texas Tech, or losing 20-14 to Oklahoma State the week prior. Or even losing 24-21 to Texas a month ago. Iowa State has been in these games and TCU cannot take them lightly.
However I have a strong belief in a program when they are losing by two with time ticking down in the final seconds, and the team has to rush the field goal unit onto the field with no timeout, no stoppage in play, no warm-up kick for preparation. For as much as we make fun of college kickers, for TCU to rush off to the field get set for a field goal attempt, and kick it right down the middle? That is the true composure of a team that has a chance to win a national championship despite the odds being so stacked against them.
But we often talk about a team of destiny in college football and TCU might be that. Quarterback Max Duggan did not have the best game, throwing for 327 yards and only one touchdown to only one interception, but he did run the ball 50 yards and score a touchdown. Normally in a game like this you would want your quarterback to full on dominate and throw for the likes of 405 hundred yards and in reality, they needed to do that against a Baylor defense that has been stingy for the last number of years.
"The great thing about that last drive, we were throwing all of our day one concepts," Duggan said. "We were throwing easy stuff that we practice and we can do with our eyes closed, and stuff that you believe in. ... So just going out there, being confident, believing it was going to happen, and Griff makes a huge kick for us."
But the reality is TCU is still undefeated. Has it been easy the last couple of weeks? Not in the slightest but TCU has been wanting a season like this for some time. You remember about a decade ago they finished number two in the final AP poll and you wondered if there would ever come a time for this program to get a shot at a national championship. This team might be that chance.
Prediction
I know it might be tempting to want to take TCU and hammer the money line and again, that might end up being the case. But be very weary of Iowa State and how it has been able to stay in games much longer than it should have. TCU gets the win and it covers, but barely. TCU by 14
Betting trends
Iowa State is 28-14 ATS after allowing 125 rushing yards or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
TCU is 16-6 ATS at home after covering in 4 or 5 out of six since 1992.
TCU is 38-21 ATS after 5 or more straight-up wins since 1992.
TCU is 16-5 ATS at home after 6 or more straight-up wins since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Iowa State:
Passing: Hunter Dekkers -- 2,938 yards, 18 TD, 13 INT
Rushing: Jirhel Brock -- 445 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Xavier Hutchinson -- 1,160 yards, 6 TD
TCU:
Passing: Max Duggan -- 2,858 yards, 26 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Kendre Miller -- 1,184 yards, 14 TD
Receiving: Quentin Johnson -- 764 yards, 5 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Iowa State - TCU prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
