by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Sep 29, 2022
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
Where to watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Iowa State -3
FanDuel: Iowa State -3
BetMGM: Iowa State -3
Caesars: Iowa State -3
Season record
Iowa State: 3-1 (0-1 Big 12)
Kansas: 4-0 (1-0 Big 12)
What a big week and some fun shake up in the top 25, as we enter Week 5 of the college football campaign. And what a week it was for our own Wayne Root with a 7-1-0 stint to continue what has been a strong start for our champion handicappers through the early stages of this college football season. But now things are going to get interesting with conference play underway and some big-time matchups in the coming weeks. You're going to want to follow our top-notch handicappers if you want to get on this action. Make sure you visit our Best Bets page to find out more.
Iowa State - Kansas preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Iowa State: lost 31-24 vs. No. 17 Baylor
Kansas: won 35-27 vs. Duke
The Iowa State Cyclones are well past the Brock Purdy and Breece Hall eras, but the success has seemingly continued to start for the football program. However, after losing their first game of the year to the Baylor Bears, we’re about to find out if they can bounce back from some adversity for the first time. Because given how things are rolling right now in the state of college football, particularly with their opponent this weekend, losing two in a row might become detrimental and things could result in a big ‘oof’ for Iowa State.
The Iowa State Cyclones are well past the Brock Purdy and Breece Hall eras, but the success has seemingly continued to start for the football program. However, after losing their first game of the year to the Baylor Bears, we’re about to find out if they can bounce back from some adversity for the first time. Because given how things are rolling right now in the state of college football, particularly with their opponent this weekend, losing two in a row might become detrimental and things could result in a big ‘oof’ for Iowa State.
All in all, I don’t think Iowa State played poorly in its 31-24 loss to the No. 17 Bears. For the way Baylor dominated that game for the majority of the afternoon and jumping out to a 10-point lead on multiple occasions, Iowa State hung in there in what was a relatively even game. The problem was the turnovers, losing the turnover battle 2-0 and letting Baylor have multiple opportunities to end the game. The turnovers came off two interceptions from quarterback Hunter Dekkers. He finished 23 of 36 for 284 yards and two touchdowns, but clearly the turnovers hurt his team’s chances. Meanwhile, Baylor QB Blake Shapen played a clean, efficient game on the road.
“We were never able to control the momentum of the football game early on,” Iowa State coach Matt Campbell said. “We needed to be better.”
That’s a winnable game that went through the wayside for Iowa State. Also, going back to Breece Hall: The Cyclones miss him. The Iowa State running game had just 2.4 yards per carry. The balance that they relied on for so long is no longer an option at the moment.
“It always felt like we were fighting from behind,” Campbell said. “What I love about (our team) is they kept playing and they kept fighting and they kept competing.”
Iowa State is favored by a field goal – more on that below – and that has gone well when straight up. Iowa State has won 17 of its last 23 when favored, and are 5-1 off a loss to a conference rival. Stars are aligning to get Iowa State back on track. But this might be their biggest test of the season, ironically enough.
We’re about to get on the Kansas Jayhawks hype train. I’m conducting it. It’s going down. What a run the Jayhawks are on right now, starting 4-0 (what?) and coming close to receiving top 25 votes (what?) in what has made no sense. The Jayhawks have a very legitimate chance to actually get into the top 25 and, dare I say, win the Big 12? You never thought that’d be something to think about, but when you have a legitimate Heisman candidate in quarterback Jalon Daniels who can do everything between his arm and legs, it’s such a fun sight to behold.
Daniels threw for 324 yards and four touchdowns while running for 83 yards and a touchdown to account for all five Kansas touchdowns in a 35-27 win over previously unbeaten Duke. Let’s think about this for a quick second: Kansas and Duke played in a football game and both teams were really good. You try to make sense of it. But the Jayhawks are a ton of fun, especially on offense.
“It feels amazing to be 4-0,” Daniels said. “To see the amount of excitement in the locker room and in the stadium, we love it."
“Jalon had another great performance,” Kansas head coach Lance Leipold said. “He doesn’t get rattled. ... He put the ball where he needed to, threw into some tight windows and made some plays with his legs. He just doesn’t let the moment get to him."
Prediction
The books don’t believe in Kansas. You should probably think about doing so. Iowa State’s defense has had some lackadaisical moments and if they let up, Daniels will take advantage. Give me Kansas. Rock Chalk and all that jazz. Kansas by 10
Betting trends
Iowa State is 12-11 ATS as a favorite in the last three seasons.
Iowa State is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 after allowing 125 rushing yards or fewer in two straight games.
Kansas is 7-12 ATS as an underdog in its last 19 instances.
Kansas is 68-107 ATS since 1992 after playing at home.
Statistical leaders
Iowa State:
Passing: Hunter Dekkers -- 1,029 yards, 10 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Jirehl Brock -- 353 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Xavier Hutchinson -- 403 yards, 5 TD
Kansas:
Passing: Jalon Daniels -- 890 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Jalon Daniels -- 320 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Lawrence Arnold -- 194 yards, 1 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Iowa State Cyclones - Kansas Jayhawks prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
