by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Jan 11, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
Where to watch: BIG12, ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Kansas -11.5
BetMGM: Kansas -12.5
Caesars: Kansas -11.5
Season record
No. 15 Iowa State: 13-2 (1-2 Big 12)
No. 9 Kansas: 12-2 (1-1 Big 12)
Matt Fargo is coming off a tough loss with Minnesota and Top Plays are now 32-17 YTD. College Hoops is 241-195 +$27,356 since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Catch Matt's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Iowa State - Kansas preview and analysis
Recent form
Iowa State: lost 79-66 at Oklahoma on Jan. 8
Kansas: lost 75-67 at No. 25 Texas Tech on Jan. 8
Tuesday’s matchup between the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence could potentially lead to a disastrous outcome for the loser.
Tuesday’s matchup between the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence could potentially lead to a disastrous outcome for the loser.
Both teams are coming off losses last week, both in different fashions. Let’s start with the home team: The Jayhawks had an eight-game winning streak end with a 75-67 loss at No. 25 Texas Tech, losing for the first time since a Thanksgiving weekend upset to Dayton.
Kansas fell behind 33-25 at halftime and that slow start did not translate well into the second half. Kansas shot just 44.7 percent from the floor, but the Jayhawks were also outrebounded 34-24 in the loss.
Ochai Agbaji led the Jayhawks with 24 points and made six 3-pointers in the process, while Jalen Wilson also chipped in with 20 points. The two combined to go 13 of 20 from the floor, while the rest of the Jayhawks shot 11 for 27. The two also combined to go 9 of 14 from 3-point range; the rest of the team went 1 for 12.
"I thought we were poor right from the jump. I don't think we played as competitive as they did for 40 minutes, even though we had some good possessions," Kansas coach Bill Self said. "We obviously didn't have them prepared to go against a team that really, really tried hard."
It’s a rarity to see Kansas fall in back-to-back games, let alone losing at home during conference play. And it’s especially hard to see this Kansas team do it; the Jayhawks are one of the top scoring teams in the country at 83.1 points per game while shooting 50.4 percent from the floor. They’re also holding teams just a shade over 67 points.
How they handle a tough Iowa State team will be interesting, seeing how the Cyclones were a top-10 team not that long ago. But the Cyclones have lost two of three to begin conference play after their 12-0 start.
The losses aren’t anything to sneeze at, though. Iowa State lost by five at home to the top-ranked Baylor Bears and then a tough road loss to the Oklahoma Sooners last week. Izaiah Brockington and Tyrese Hunter had 20 points each.
This game was a true indication of you need to see it to believe it. Not many teams can shoot 56 percent as a team and still lose by double digits. The Sooners shot 62 percent, however, and outrebounded the Cyclones 26-17.
"Whether it was fatigue, getting caught up in a road environment -- all those things probably contributed -- but we've got to be who we can be, and that's a really effective and elite defensive team," Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger said. "And then we score from there. And I just thought today was the first time we weren't that team this season, and we've got to bounce back."
Prediction
In the grand scheme of things, you wish for chaos if it involves one team. No matter who loses is going to make that second tier of the Big 12 rather interesting. Allen Fieldhouse is not a place designed for Kansas to go on a losing streak, so by default, I like the Jayhawks here, but it’ll be close. Kansas by 6
Betting trends
Iowa State is 17-22 ATS in the past three seasons against conference opponents.
Iowa State is 7-25 straight up following a loss against a conference opponent in the past three seasons.
Kansas is 34-2 straight up in its last 36 home games.
Kansas is 18-5 straight up after playing a road game in the past three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Iowa State:
PG: Tyrese Hunter
SG: Gabe Kalscheur
SF: Izaiah Brockington
PF: Tristan Enaruna
C: George Conditt IV
SF: Izaiah Brockington
PF: Tristan Enaruna
C: George Conditt IV
Kansas:
PG: Remy Martin
SG: Dajuan Harris Jr.
SF: Ochai Agbaji
PF: Christian Braun
C: David McCormack
SF: Ochai Agbaji
PF: Christian Braun
C: David McCormack
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Iowa State - Kansas prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
