Iowa State Cyclones vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/04/2023

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, March 4, 2023

Venue:  Ferrell Center, Waco, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  ISU +7.5, Baylor -7.5; Over/Under:  136 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  ISU +7.5, Baylor -7.5; Over/Under:  136 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  ISU +7.5, Baylor -7.5; Over/Under:  136 points

Iowa State Cyclones:  17-12 (8-9) (6th place, Big 12)

Baylor Bears:  22-8 (11-6) (3rd place, Big 12)

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Iowa State Cyclones:  1-4  last 5

Baylor Bears:  3-2  last 5

Iowa State is coming into this game with a 17-12 record overall and they are 2-8 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are also 8-9 in their conference games this season as well. They are entering this game on a 4 game losing streak with losses coming against the Kansas State Wildcats, the Texas Longhorns, the Oklahoma Sooners, and the West Virginia Mountaineers in their last game. Gabe Kalscheur led the team in points in that game with 26 while Jaren Holmes was next on the team with 16 points. Osun Osunniyi, Jaren Holmes, and Tamin Lipsey each led the team in assists in that game with 3 while Robert Jones and Tre King each led the team in rebounds with 5. They were 46.2% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range, and 72.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 68.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 62.3 PPG against them. Iowa State has an ATS record of 14-15 this season and their O/U record is 10-19.

Baylor is coming into this game with a 22-8 record overall and they are 14-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are also 11-6 in their conference schedule this season as well. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their last game. LJ Cryer and Dale Bonner each led the team in points in that game with 15 while Jalen Bridges was next on the team with 14 points. Adam Flagler led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Flo Thamba led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 41.8% from the field, 35.5% from 3-point range, and 85% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.9 PPG against them. Baylor has an ATS record of 16-13-1 this season and their O/U record is 16-14.

The current betting odds have Baylor listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Baylor enters this game as a ranked team with their 22-8 record overall and they picked the right time to get hot as they have been playing great in their games over the last few weeks. They are 11-6 in conference games this season making them one of the better teams in the Big 12 and they have been a really good home team too with their 14-2 home record. They also have some momentum on their side with 2 wins in a row now while Iowa State has been in a bad slump lately that they can't seem to get out of. Iowa State is only 17-12 overall this season and they now have a losing 8-9 conference record with the way they have been playing lately. They have also been terrible in their road games with a 2-8 road record this year and have now lost 4 games in a row, even losing their ranking as they have been so bad. These teams are heading in opposite directions right now and until Iowa State shows they can put up a better fight in their games they are going to struggle to beat a hot team like Baylor at home. The best way to place a bet here is on Baylor to cover the spread in this game. 

Iowa State Baylor Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, March 4, 2023 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Baylor 79 Iowa State 61.

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Iowa State Cyclones: 20-31 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. 5-10 ATS off 3 straight losses against conference rivals. 7-1 UNDER in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5.

Baylor Bears: 30-20 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 21-15 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5. 8-2 UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite.

Iowa State Cyclones:  J. Williams (G) out for season - Achilles.

Baylor Bears:  L. Love (G) Ques Sat - Eye. K. George (G) Ques Sat - Ankle. D. Grimes (G) out for season - Redshirt.

"I really care about being the head coach at Iowa State. This program really matters to me. It’s personal. It’s my family. My wife who played here. It’s a place I’ve grown up coaching. And there’s no position or job I honor more than being the head coach of this program. And so regardless of how difficult a choice may or may not be at a given time, I have a responsibility and I have a job to do.” - T.J. Otzelberger on Caleb Grill being dismissed from the team. 

“With Adam and LJ, it makes it easy to sleep at night. Dale was tremendous down the stretch. It starts with your backcourt, they’ve got experience, they made free throws, they take care of the basketball, so you really trust them.” - Scott Drew after his team’s win against Oklahoma State in their last game. 

C. Grill 

J. Holmes 

G. Kalscheur

T. Lipsey 

O. Osunniyi

J. Bridges 

L. Cryer 

A. Flagler 

K. George 

F. Thamba

PPG: J. Holmes (13.1)

APG: T. Lipsey (4.6)

Reb/G: A. Kunc (4.5)

PPG: K. George (16.3)

APG: A. Flagler (4.9)

Reb/G: J. Bridges (5.8)

Coaches:

Iowa State Cyclones: T.J. Otzelberger (2nd season)

Baylor Bears: Scott Drew (20th season)