by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Jan 18, 2022
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Jersey Mike's Arena, Piscataway, NJ
Where to watch: BTN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Iowa -2.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Iowa -3
Season record
Iowa: 13-4 (3-3 Big Ten)
Rutgers: 10-6 (4-2 Big Ten)
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Iowa - Rutgers preview, analysis and prediction
We’re starting to see tiers within the Big Ten Conference, and I think it’s safe to say that the Iowa Hawkeyes are in that second spot of good teams, but not great.
Which is why I don’t think it’ll be too much of an issue when the Hawkeyes visit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Wednesday as the Hawkeyes go for their seventh win in eight games.
Iowa dropped three of their first four conference games, but you have to look at the teams they lost to; there’s no shame in losing to really good teams like Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin with two of them coming on the road.
The Hawkeyes are coming off an 81-71 win at Minnesota in what was almost a horrendous loss for Iowa. After leading 43-27 at halftime and by as many as 20 at one point, Minnesota pulled within four with 2:47 to go. Talk about a near-bad beat with Iowa favored by 7.
Keegan Murray had 25 points for Iowa on 11 of 17 shooting, while three Hawkeyes had 12 points each in the victory. Iowa moved to 5-3 against the spread in its last eight with the over going an astonishing 7-0-1 in that run.
Looking at the 2.5 Iowa is laying, that’s a good number against a Rutgers team that we’re not really sure about yet. Sure, the Knights give up about 65 points per game and have shown signs of having a good defense, but they’re only scoring 69 points a game. Rutgers has hit at least 70 in this stretch of five wins in six games.
Rutgers has proven to be a scary bunch since that win over top-ranked Purdue on Dec. 9. The Knights have gone 6-2 but have benefitted greatly off a lackluster showing by the rest of the Big Ten; they defeated Michigan and Nebraska at home, while losing to Penn State on Jan. 11.
Iowa has been near dominant over the past three seasons, going 36-19 against the spread as a favorite while going 47-10 straight up. And that offense we talked about? The Hawkeyes are 5-0 against the spread after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games and 9-2 ATS over the past three seasons.
I see Rutgers putting up a formidable fight throughout the game, but Iowa pulls away late and gets the win along with the cover. Hard to see Rutgers there just yet. Iowa by 8
Betting trends
Iowa is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS win.
The over is 6-0 in Iowa's last six against a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.
The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Projected starting lineup
Iowa:
PG: Joe Toussaint
SG: Jordan Bohannon
SF: Keegan Murray
PF: Patrick McCaffery
C: Filip Rebraca
SF: Keegan Murray
PF: Patrick McCaffery
C: Filip Rebraca
Rutgers:
PG: Geo Baker
SG: Paul Mulcahy
SF: Ron Harper Jr.
PF: Caleb McConnell
C: Cliff Omoruyi
SF: Ron Harper Jr.
PF: Caleb McConnell
C: Cliff Omoruyi
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
