by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Sep 27, 2021
Game time: 8 p.m. ET, October 1, 2021
Venue: Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Iowa -3; O/U 45.5; Iowa -160, Maryland +140
BetMGM: Iowa -3; O/U 46.5; Iowa -167, Maryland +135
Caesars: Iowa -3; O/U 46; Iowa -160, Maryland +140
Season record
No. 5 Iowa: 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten)
Maryland: 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten)
Ben Burns had a solid 3-2-1 week in what was an eventful and upset-filled weekend of college football. Ben is back for his Thursday thoughts on Virginia and Miami, but don’t make a move on it until you check in with him. Catch Ben’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Iowa - Maryland preview and analysis
Recent form
Iowa: won 24-14 vs. Colorado State on Sept. 25
Maryland: won 37-16 vs. Kent State on Sept. 25
In what may be the most important game of the Big Ten’s season as far as championship/playoff implications, this is going to be the toughest game of the season for the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Which is why it makes sense taking the Maryland Terrapins with the points at home on Friday.
Maryland is another one of those teams that you can arguably group them into the ‘they’re good, but they haven’t beaten anybody’ tier. That’s understandable. The Terps have a 3-point win over conference bottomfeeder Illinois (albeit on the road) and a 62-0 win over the likes of Howard.
But one win that’s starting to look really good on the resume is the season-opening 30-24 win at home against the West Virginia Mountaineers. This is the same West Virginia team that has since beaten formerly-ranked Virginia Tech, and then almost upset the Oklahoma Sooners this past Saturday.
Maryland is coming off a 37-16 win over the MAC power Kent State Golden Flashes this past Saturday. Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 384 yards and three touchdowns, continuing his case to be one of the top quarterbacks in college football. He could cement that standing this week if he and Dontay Demus Jr. (four receptions, 108 yards, 1 TD vs. Kent State).
The Terps offense is buzzing at a tune of 519.3 yards per game with Tagovailoa putting 353.3 of them through the air in four games. To this point, the Maryland defense has done its job holding teams to 14.3 points per game and only 324 total YPG.
I don’t doubt Iowa coming back better after only scoring 24 points in a 10-point win over the Colorado State Rams. The Hawkeyes trailed by a touchdown in the second half but shut out the Rams in the second half. QB Spencer Petras had a ho-hum day with 224 yards and a touchdown, and the Hawkeyes needed every one of those yards. Iowa was held to 278 total yards in the win.
Let’s not be mistaken here: The Hawkeyes have two wins over two formerly-ranked teams. They’ve beaten the competition put in front of them between the Indiana Hoosiers and Iowa State Cyclones. While we can sit here and nitpick about Maryland’s games, Iowa’s might also be in need of a conversation.
Iowa, in total, had 54 rushing yards on officially 32 attempts. Maryland’s defense has only allowed 111.8 per game. Combine that with the Terps’ ability to get to the quarterback (16 sacks through four games) and lockdown corners Nick Cross and Jakorian Bennett manning the secondary, you won’t find another test as difficult as Iowa going to College Park.
Prediction
We tend to fall into this trap every year with Iowa, thinking they’re going to get outmatched only for head coach Kirk Ferentz to eventually find a way. But I really like this Maryland team, and the factor of the home crowd is going to play a role. A Maryland win would put the Big Ten East in state of hysteria, and I for one love mass hysteria in any sport. Maryland by 3
Betting trends
Iowa is 22-9 in its last 31 games against the spread as a road favorite by seven points or less.
The under is 6-0 in Iowa’s last six October games.
Maryland is 3-3 in its last six ATS as a home dog.
Players to watch
Iowa: The one guy Maryland can’t allow to get loose is receiver Keagan Johnson. He had only two receptions last week, but they went for 92 yards and a touchdown.
Maryland: Iowa will rightfully focus a lot of attention on Tagovailoa, but running back Tayon Fleet-Davis could have a big game because of it. He’s averaging 7.1 yards per carry on only 44 carries. He can fly and make a difference.
Statistical leaders
Iowa:
Passing: Spencer Petras -- 684 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Tyler Goodson -- 364 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Sam LaPorta -- 214 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Lukas Van Ness -- 4 sacks
Maryland:
Passing: Taulia Tagovailoa -- 1,340 yards, 10 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Tayon Fleet-Davis -- 311 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Dontay Demus Jr. -- 446 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Sam Okuayinonu -- 4 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
