by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022Music City Bowl
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Iowa -2; Iowa -130, Kentucky +110; O/U 31
FanDuel: Iowa -2.5; Iowa -128, Kentucky +106; O/U 31.5
BetMGM: Iowa -2.5; Iowa -130, Kentucky +110; O/U 31
Caesars: Iowa -2; Iowa -135, Kentucky +115; O/U 31
Season record
Iowa: 7-5
Kentucky: 7-5
Bowl season is here! There are 42 games that are going to be determining how this season ends. We appreciate you for hanging with us during this college football season, and you know it’s not over yet. We’re going to keep on rolling and giving your our best picks over the course of the next month. All the way up until the College Football Playoff, which is going to have some incredible games. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!
Iowa - Kentucky preview, analysis and prediction
Iowa analysis
Life will never cease to amaze me that the Iowa Hawkeyes have found themselves in a bowl game. I didn't think the teams that were unable to score points were able to actually play in the postseason, let alone win seven games and actually put itself in a position to be in a decent bowl game. I suppose those are the perks of playing in the big 10 more or less. But Iowa actually had a very decent end to the season winning four of its final five games and covering in four of the last five. The only cover and the only outright loss were the last game the Hawkeyes played in. And that was a 24-17 loss to Nebraska of all teams. Clearly someone did not get the memo in that if he loosed in abrasca you are automatically disqualified from any bowl games now or in the future. But somehow like I was coaching situation, there have been loopholes and things that have been found to keep them in line for as long as they have. Because when abrasca jumps out to A24-0 lead the way that it did through the first two plus quarters, Iowa should not be down by that much number one, and #2 how they were able to even score 17 points in the final 20 minutes of this game is truly the biggest shocker to me. Because if you've watched even a lick of Iowa football this year, you know how bad that team is. And until they figure out something in how they can go about with scoring and playing defense in general, this might be a horrendous game for Iowa against an SEC team that was considered a contender at the beginning and fell completely off toward the end. But the opponent is still very good enough to dismantle Iowa on both sides.
Kentucky analysis
The Kentucky Wildcats were one of the bigger disappointments of the college football season. No one really anticipated them actually going all the way and winning the SEC, and shocking the entire college football world, but I think many of us expected them to be a lot better than 7-5 this season. The last couple of months have been disappointing and abysmal as it pertains to Kentucky. Not only did they finish 2-3 in their final five, but you can even go back as far as to say they lost five of their last eight but surprisingly went 5-3 against the spread in the final leave. So take that with a grain of salt how you will. But the Wildcats actually got an impressive victory to close out the regular season with a 26-13 win over Louisville, a team that was destined to be a big spoiler at the end of the year. That wind was needed considering it came after a 3 point loss to Vanderbilt and a 10 point loss to the top team in the country in Georgia. No matter which way you look at it, it was a disappointing season for Kentucky quarterback will levis, despite throwing for 188 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Louisville. Kentucky is going to be predicated around top running back Chris Rodriguez. He ran for 120 yards on 24 carries for Kentucky last week. Kentucky just does not have the firepower to sustain long winded nuances that should make Kentucky 10 times better period but at the end of the day Kentucky is a solid team and should easily take care of business against a struggling Iowa team.
Prediction
I don't trust in Iowa, and you should not either. This is a program that has underachieved for so long and has somehow been able to stay afloat for a long as it has. Kentucky may have its flaws, but Kentucky also knows when to get things done on the offensive end which is more than anyone can say about Iowa. Kentucky 21, Iowa 13
Betting trends
Iowa is 8-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 the last 3 seasons.
Iowa is 9-1 ATS on the road after playing their last game at home the last 3 seasons.
The under is 61-40 when Kentucky is on the road and plays on grass since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Iowa:
Passing: Spencer Petras – 1,725 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Kaleb Johnson – 762 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Sam LaPorta – 601 yards, 1 TD
Kentucky:
Passing: Will Levis – 2,406 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Chris Rodriguez – 904 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Barion Brown – 604 yards, 4 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
